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Thread: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

  1. #31
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopdaddy67 View Post
    Maybe a team would have given up a nice haul, but we don't know. With that said, teams have been very reluctant to give up solid prospects for rentals in recent years. It wasn't going to look better when you're only getting a handful of starts from a guy.

    Also, you're ignoring that Castellini may not have allowed Williams to even explore selling at the deadline. In fact, I tend to think that is very likely what happened, so they added non-rentals for a relatively low cost with next year in mind.
    Great starting pitchers get traded almost every year at the deadline for a better haul than a compensation pick.

    It's the GM's job to convince ownership what's in the best interest of the club.
    Jim Bowden talked ownership into bringing Greg Vaughn in, as well as other moves.
    Dick Williams can't have a talk with his dad and tell him that trading Bauer in a lost season will
    make the Reds better in the future? That doesn't seem like too much to ask of Williams.
    I mean, there's no fans in the stands , the TV money is set. The Reds are having a bad season.
    90% of the fans would not even notice Bauer was gone to be honest. I mean seriously, I don't
    think ownership is that dumb to not let Bauer be traded.

    Dick Williams is trying to save face. That's why he added two players. He's hoping the team
    finishes strong so he's not as embarrassed. That's why Bauer was not shopped.
    The only other possibility is that the Reds are super confident they can bring Bauer back next year..
    Obviously, if they resign Bauer, I'm ok with them not trading him this year.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!


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  3. #32
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by PTjvs View Post
    Nick Senzel was a top 5 in MLB prospect when he was promoted to the majors (i.e. when it should have been easiest prorject his value). When you try to project prospects, even close to ready prospects, the "solid but not star" prosects often turn into replacement level players, and the actual projected stars, like Senzel, turn into...well, Nick Senzel.

    jvs
    My point is that Bauer could be traded for better and more projectable prospects than a single comp pick.
    Just look at Reds' history, how relativeliy few comp picks became useful players. Very few.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  4. #33
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Let me address the "go for it"
    Reds might sneak into the playoffs, since half the teams are going to make it.
    But seriously, this is a below 500 team for a reason.
    If the Reds make the playoffs, the offense and bullpen will let them down again.
    Sonny is on the DL now, he's been having trouble for awhile (I am guessing)
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  5. #34
    Probably not Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    My point is that Bauer could be traded for better and more projectable prospects than a single comp pick.
    Just look at Reds' history, how relativeliy few comp picks became useful players. Very few.
    The Reds have actually done well in this area:

    Trammel - turned into Bauer
    Downs - turned into wood/puig
    Todd Frazier
    Michael Lorenzen
    Brad Boxberger
    Jesse Winker

    There have been a few misses along the way, but the pick definitely has value, and with the Reds now a game out of the playoffs there would be a lot of bad optics around waiving the white flag at the deadline for a modestly better deadline package.

    This was a weird year with few teams willing to absorb cash due to budgetary constraints due to Covid that no teams were willing to really move good prospects for talent. It was a tough sell accross baseball, not just with the Reds’ internal hierarchy.

    I’m going to enjoy the ride of playoff chase, possibility of resigning, and at worst comp pick rather than dream of another lottery ticket.


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  7. #35
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    The Reds have actually done well in this area:

    Trammel - turned into Bauer
    Downs - turned into wood/puig
    Todd Frazier
    Michael Lorenzen
    Brad Boxberger
    Jesse Winker

    There have been a few misses along the way, but the pick definitely has value, and with the Reds now a game out of the playoffs there would be a lot of bad optics around waiving the white flag at the deadline for a modestly better deadline package.

    This was a weird year with few teams willing to absorb cash due to budgetary constraints due to Covid that no teams were willing to really move good prospects for talent. It was a tough sell accross baseball, not just with the Reds’ internal hierarchy.

    I’m going to enjoy the ride of playoff chase, possibility of resigning, and at worst comp pick rather than dream of another lottery ticket.


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    We also turned our comp pick last year into Sonny Gray.

    And count me as intrigued with the comp pick of Jackson Miller. A high school catcher who is average or better in all tools? If he ends up as a solidly average 5 tool catcher, when do you see that? And he's athletic? And he just took to catching like a year ago and was good enough to be drafted for it?

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  9. #36
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    A couple points about Bauer have been mentioned ....

    1) he's a fierce competitor and wants to win
    2) he only likes to sign one-year deals

    JMO, but he walks at the end of the season. And to be honest I don't care. He's an ace, a helluva pitcher, but also a strange case to figure out. You move on. He's not the only fish in the sea.
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    Let me address the "go for it"

    If the Reds make the playoffs, the offense and bullpen will let them down again.
    )
    If you think the Reds will automatically lose even if they make the playoffs, I suggest you stop watching them. For your sake, and ours too.

    Surely you’ve watched enough baseball to understand the randomness of the sport?

    Upsets are the norm.


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  11. #38
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Are they going to allow any records set in 2020 to stand? Has that been decided? As of right now, with probably two starts remaining, Trevor Bauer is on pace to record the lowest H/9 IP in baseball history. The qualification is that a pitcher must have 1 IP per team game played. Bauer has 51.1 IP, and will certainly past 60 with those two starts remaining. He is currently allowing 4.87 hits per 9 innings. That would shatter the record of 5.26 set by Nolan Ryan way back in 1972. Just doing some quick math: If Trevor reaches 65 IP this season, he would to allow fewer than 38 hits to break Ryan's mark. He has allowed 28 to date, so 9 or less hits over his next two starts, assuming he makes it to 65 innings.

  12. #39
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    The Reds have actually done well in this area:

    Trammel - turned into Bauer
    Downs - turned into wood/puig
    Todd Frazier
    Michael Lorenzen
    Brad Boxberger
    Jesse Winker

    There have been a few misses along the way, but the pick definitely has value, and with the Reds now a game out of the playoffs there would be a lot of bad optics around waiving the white flag at the deadline for a modestly better deadline package.

    This was a weird year with few teams willing to absorb cash due to budgetary constraints due to Covid that no teams were willing to really move good prospects for talent. It was a tough sell accross baseball, not just with the Reds’ internal hierarchy.

    I’m going to enjoy the ride of playoff chase, possibility of resigning, and at worst comp pick rather than dream of another lottery ticket.


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    The Indians traded Clevenger for 6 guys.
    Now, I realize a lot of that had to do with years of control, but IIRC, they got 3 highly touted prospects back.
    At least two of those three(if not all) of those prospects probably has a better chance of becoming a major leaguer than a comp pick.

    I count 4 major leaguers from your list.. in the history of compensation picks.. The other 2 might make it someday, although Trammel looks like a long shot now. I'm glad they got some value out of Trammel, but if anything, that makes the point that if you can trade Bauer for a top 100 prospect, plus a couple of other guys, you have a better chance of getting more value out of it. A few misses? A lot of misses. Even though Lorenzen had a good year last year, a lot of people want to cut him now.
    Last edited by REDREAD; 09-15-2020 at 01:58 PM.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  13. #40
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    If you think the Reds will automatically lose even if they make the playoffs, I suggest you stop watching them. For your sake, and ours too.

    Surely you’ve watched enough baseball to understand the randomness of the sport?

    Upsets are the norm.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    IF the Reds make the playoffs, of course I will watch.
    Just like I watch every chance I get to see regular season games.
    It's called being realistic, and having standards for what a good season is.
    Maybe the Reds finish at 500 or a little bit over 500, but that's still disappointing.
    Let's be a little bit objective here.. Are the Philllies, Brewers, and Giants having good years?
    Not really, they have records that are close to what the Reds are. The owners decided to let
    too many teams into the playoffs, that's giving a false impression of what success is.

    And on top of it, Sonny has been having problems for some time. While I can't prove that he was having health
    problems near the deadline, it seems likely.

    In the meantime, I am trying to make the point that Bauer should have been cashed out, there was a market for him, and we
    could have gotten more value than a comp pick for him.. Yet most of the board wants to be in denial. That's ok to disagree, but no need for you to get an attitude about it because I'm not just blindly agreeing with Dick Williams.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  14. #41
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    I think it's the right call in this shortened season to roll the dice, even if the chances are slim. This team hasn't sniffed success for too long, to not take a chance here.

    I said it a while back. Some NL team could start clicking right at the end of regular season, then upset the Dodgers, then who knows? Why not the Reds?

    The two value objects weighed here are 1: Better chance to make the playoffs now + value of comp pick vs. 2: Value of dealing Bauer.

    It's a no brainer for this success starved team. Roll them bones.
    He said he was curious about the crowd but didn’t want to stay and talk. “I’m heading out,” he said. “This is a super-spreader event.”

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  16. #42
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    The Indians traded Clevenger for 6 guys.
    Now, I realize a lot of that had to do with years of control, but IIRC, they got 3 highly touted prospects back.
    At least two of those three(if not all) of those prospects probably has a better chance of becoming a major leaguer than a comp pick.

    I count 4 major leaguers from your list.. in the history of compensation picks.. The other 2 might make it someday, although Trammel looks like a long shot now. I'm glad they got some value out of Trammel, but if anything, that makes the point that if you can trade Bauer for a top 100 prospect, plus a couple of other guys, you have a better chance of getting more value out of it. A few misses? A lot of misses. Even though Lorenzen had a good year last year, a lot of people want to cut him now.
    I just dont see the Clevenger comp at all. With him the Padres are getting about 100 starts, and his starting salary is $4m and only in year 1 of arb.

    With Bauer you are getting about 5 starts at a prorated $17m salary. Its just not a comparison.

    You may only count 4 major leaguers, but at this point, they had become assets 1-2 years after being drafted that they were able to be spun off for 1 and a half years of quality major league players. Its just funny since Bauer was the original target.... Im looking at the asset value rather than overall major league value on some of these guys because we dont have enough time to really figure out what their career will look like.

    Getting back to the deadline, there were other elite pitchers, such as Lance Lynn (who is even signed for another year at only $10M), that were shopped hard, and ended up staying put despite the Rangers being well out of it. Kluber was traded in the off-season for a reliever and a mixed bag (they didnt know he would get immediately re-injured).

    Point being, for sure, the Reds would have gotten more assets than just a comp pick, but I think you are overselling the degree of it. Im thinking they would potentially get a back end 100-130 prospect guy, and maybe a top 400-500 guy. It would be better, but I dont think it was groundbreaking enough to waive a white flag when the comp pick could easily become a top 200 guy sooner than later.

    There would be a lot of organizational value out of simply making the playoffs even if they dont win a round. Something to change the momentum, enhance internal club culture, show the Reds can be a winning organization, continue being somewhat attractive a destination for free agents, maybe even in being able to keep Bauer. Maybe they even have a chance of winning a round or two. Its baseball, and in a short series it happens. Im not giving up all of that up for a slightly better dart throw.

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  18. #43
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    I just dont see the Clevenger comp at all. With him the Padres are getting about 100 starts, and his starting salary is $4m and only in year 1 of arb.

    With Bauer you are getting about 5 starts at a prorated $17m salary. Its just not a comparison.

    You may only count 4 major leaguers, but at this point, they had become assets 1-2 years after being drafted that they were able to be spun off for 1 and a half years of quality major league players. Its just funny since Bauer was the original target.... Im looking at the asset value rather than overall major league value on some of these guys because we dont have enough time to really figure out what their career will look like.

    Getting back to the deadline, there were other elite pitchers, such as Lance Lynn (who is even signed for another year at only $10M), that were shopped hard, and ended up staying put despite the Rangers being well out of it. Kluber was traded in the off-season for a reliever and a mixed bag (they didnt know he would get immediately re-injured).

    Point being, for sure, the Reds would have gotten more assets than just a comp pick, but I think you are overselling the degree of it. Im thinking they would potentially get a back end 100-130 prospect guy, and maybe a top 400-500 guy. It would be better, but I dont think it was groundbreaking enough to waive a white flag when the comp pick could easily become a top 200 guy sooner than later.

    There would be a lot of organizational value out of simply making the playoffs even if they dont win a round. Something to change the momentum, enhance internal club culture, show the Reds can be a winning organization, continue being somewhat attractive a destination for free agents, maybe even in being able to keep Bauer. Maybe they even have a chance of winning a round or two. Its baseball, and in a short series it happens. Im not giving up all of that up for a slightly better dart throw.

    So much this.


    Trading Bauer would have been a massive mistake, imo. And while some may see the Reds resigning him as low, I'd venture a guess that it'd be non-existent had they traded him and, honestly, I like the Reds chances of resigning him, assuming he sticks with the 1-yr only plan.

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  20. #44
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    I just dont see the Clevenger comp at all. With him the Padres are getting about 100 starts, and his starting salary is $4m and only in year 1 of arb.

    With Bauer you are getting about 5 starts at a prorated $17m salary. Its just not a comparison.

    You may only count 4 major leaguers, but at this point, they had become assets 1-2 years after being drafted that they were able to be spun off for 1 and a half years of quality major league players. Its just funny since Bauer was the original target.... Im looking at the asset value rather than overall major league value on some of these guys because we dont have enough time to really figure out what their career will look like.

    Getting back to the deadline, there were other elite pitchers, such as Lance Lynn (who is even signed for another year at only $10M), that were shopped hard, and ended up staying put despite the Rangers being well out of it. Kluber was traded in the off-season for a reliever and a mixed bag (they didnt know he would get immediately re-injured).

    Point being, for sure, the Reds would have gotten more assets than just a comp pick, but I think you are overselling the degree of it. Im thinking they would potentially get a back end 100-130 prospect guy, and maybe a top 400-500 guy. It would be better, but I dont think it was groundbreaking enough to waive a white flag when the comp pick could easily become a top 200 guy sooner than later.

    There would be a lot of organizational value out of simply making the playoffs even if they dont win a round. Something to change the momentum, enhance internal club culture, show the Reds can be a winning organization, continue being somewhat attractive a destination for free agents, maybe even in being able to keep Bauer. Maybe they even have a chance of winning a round or two. Its baseball, and in a short series it happens. Im not giving up all of that up for a slightly better dart throw.
    Yea, I can see the logic in a "short series, anything can happen".. but when 15 or 16 teams are in the playoffs (I can't remember), that's a lot of series that the Reds are relying on Castillo and Bauer to carry the rest of the team. The odds are pretty long that
    they will make any significant noise. But I can see that hoping for one playoff win is sort of a moral victory. I would just look more long term.

    I still think Bauer easily nets a top 100 prospect and more.. I don't want to get into specifics, but he's worth a lot more than Lance Lynn and an injured Kluber. But if you want to use Kluber as a comp, the Indians got Emmanual Clase, who had a nice 2019. He's on a PED suspension now, but that's still a nice return. They also got Delino Deshields Jr, who is not great, but he's comparable to Shogo so far and for a lot less money (and better than former round 1 pick Ervin and likely better than Aquino).. IMO, what they got for kluber is a better return than a comp pick.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  21. #45
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    Re: Trevor Bauer should have been dealt!!

    Weren’t the nationals looking terrible after 60 games last year?


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