COVID-19, Part VIII - heading into flu season

[kaldaniels]

Wait, SeaRay liked a post. I thought....

Good God that’s Sea Ray’s music!

[westofyou]

Most of Europe is acting like Spain. Everyone is relaxing restrictions. Why didn’t the draconian lockdown in Spain lead to manageable containment as was promised?

The answer is you don’t have an answer. It’s a disease we don’t understand, so deal with uncertainty.

Uncertainty?

Like will someone I know die from this?

[Falls City Beer]

Uncertainty?

Like will someone I know die from this?

That’s pretty much the uncertainty we’re dealing with. Along with what actually slows the spread. It’s not even clear lockdowns did much of anything to slow spread.

My objection isn’t to lockdowns. My objection is to the arrogance of certainty at this point. None of you knows anything. At all. The experts don’t even know enough.

The number of Americans under 60 with no underlying health conditions that have died from this disease is ~10,000. Out of 200,000 dead. In a country of 350 million.

27 million out of work. 50 million without health insurance.

Something like Covid will happen again and soon, since Covid is a product of man’s encroachment into places they shouldn’t encroach. There’s got to be better response next time. This was a disaster.

[Falls City Beer]

Stop. Please stop with this nonsense.

I am sure experts are looking into every area, how they responded to this pandemic, and what the results were. However, whatever they find about the countries you listed will not change the fact that overall, stricter, more complete lockdowns had better results in preventing cases and deaths that looser lockdowns. The lockdowns worked at saving lives and saving economies. The evidence is overwhelming on this.

And lets be clear. Every country, even Sweden, had some form of a lockdown.

So now there’s no way to compare different responses in different countries because they all had them, never mind that they were vastly different in every conceivable way.

[757690]

That’s pretty much the uncertainty we’re dealing with. Along with what actually slows the spread. It’s not even clear lockdowns did much of anything to slow spread.

My objection isn’t to lockdowns. My objection is to the arrogance of certainty at this point. None of you knows anything. At all. The experts don’t even know enough.

The number of Americans under 60 with no underlying health conditions that have died from this disease is ~10,000. Out of 200,000 dead. In a country of 350 million.

27 million out of work. 50 million without health insurance.

It is clear. No matter how many times you say it’s not.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-c...-europe-2020-6

Lockdowns worked, new research finds. Scientists estimate coronavirus measures stopped at least 60 million infections in the US and 3 million deaths in Europe.

[Bob Sheed]

We, as a country, yeah we're big on over-correction. See a problem. Over-correct the hell out of it.

Honestly, it would not surprise me if 2 years from now, looking back on this, it was either a huge over-reaction, or the worst plague to hit us in 1000 years.

FCB is right about one thing in general. There are too many unknown variables right now to be certain about anything.

We can't be certain this is being underplayed? Can't be certain it is being overplayed. The numbers go through Trump right now, for the US anyway. So deposit those right in the shredder.

We have no uncompromised data. And we know how clicks and algorithms have compromised not just social media, but traditional media as well. COVID gets a LOT of clicks.

I'm not on one end of belief or the other. I honestly have no clue and no means in which to gather accurate uncompromised information to make any kind of informed decision about it.

We're all in the dark. And there are darker times ahead, COVID or no COVID.

EDIT: I do find it amusing though, those who wonder "why MLB and NFL don't have rampant COVID issues", take a big chug of beer, and then remind everyone they "would never take a daily COVID test and masks are stupid."

[Redhook]

We, as a country, yeah we're big on over-correction. See a problem. Over-correct the hell out of it.

Honestly, it would not surprise me if 2 years from now, looking back on this, it was either a huge over-reaction, or the worst plague to hit us in 1000 years.

FCB is right about one thing in general. There are too many unknown variables right now to be certain about anything.

We can't be certain this is being underplayed? Can't be certain it is being overplayed. The numbers go through Trump right now, for the US anyway. So deposit those right in the shredder.

We have no uncompromised data. And we know how clicks and algorithms have compromised not just social media, but traditional media as well. COVID gets a LOT of clicks.

I'm not on one end of belief or the other. I honestly have no clue and no means in which to gather accurate uncompromised information to make any kind of informed decision about it.

We're all in the dark. And there are darker times ahead, COVID or no COVID.

EDIT: I do find it amusing though, those who wonder "why MLB and NFL don't have rampant COVID issues", take a big chug of beer, and then remind everyone they "would never take a daily COVID test and masks are stupid."

Good post.

About your Edit. Personally, I wear a mask and would take a test. I still question how the NFL went so long with no cases until 2 days ago. I’m not questioning wearing masks or the tight protocols. I just wonder if “stuff” has been hidden. What I’m referring to is individual athletes quietly sitting out without getting tested so entire teams don’t have to sit out. It’s happening in high school sports so I wonder if there’s something fishy going on in the NFL too. I hope they’re not doing that and I hope they truly have had only one case, but nothing would surprise me with the NFL.

[757690]

We, as a country, yeah we're big on over-correction. See a problem. Over-correct the hell out of it.

Honestly, it would not surprise me if 2 years from now, looking back on this, it was either a huge over-reaction, or the worst plague to hit us in 1000 years.

FCB is right about one thing in general. There are too many unknown variables right now to be certain about anything.

We can't be certain this is being underplayed? Can't be certain it is being overplayed. The numbers go through Trump right now, for the US anyway. So deposit those right in the shredder.

We have no uncompromised data. And we know how clicks and algorithms have compromised not just social media, but traditional media as well. COVID gets a LOT of clicks.

I'm not on one end of belief or the other. I honestly have no clue and no means in which to gather accurate uncompromised information to make any kind of informed decision about it.

We're all in the dark. And there are darker times ahead, COVID or no COVID.

EDIT: I do find it amusing though, those who wonder "why MLB and NFL don't have rampant COVID issues", take a big chug of beer, and then remind everyone they "would never take a daily COVID test and masks are stupid."

Many good points. There is no certainty with this disease. However, there is no certainty with most diseases. We don’t even have certainty with the general influenza. That is why we need a flu shoot every year, and it’s a different flu shoot each year.

There is little in this world that we have certainty about, but much that we have actionable knowledge about. We use actionable knowledge every day. When we go to the grocery store, are we certain that it will have the items we need? No, not at all, it’s happens rather commonly that we go to the store and they don’t have an item we need. But we still go to the store without any further research. We have reason to act on something without certainty. There are millions of examples of this.

So demanding certainty before action when it comes to Covid is unreasonable and to be honest, just plain silly. We shouldn’t demand certainty before acting, we should be demanding reasonable, actionable knowledge.

That said, we have strong, actionable knowledge that wearing masks saves lives. We have strong, actionable knowledge that lockdowns have worked and should continue to work. We have strong, actionable knowledge that testing is crucial to dealing with this pandemic.

[Bob Sheed]

Many good points. There is no certainty with this disease. However, there is no certainty with most diseases. We don’t even have certainty with the general influenza. That is why we need a flu shoot every year, and it’s a different flu shoot each year.

There is little in this world that we have certainty about, but much that we have actionable knowledge about. We use actionable knowledge every day. When we go to the grocery store, are we certain that it will have the items we need? No, not at all, it’s happens rather commonly that we go to the store and they don’t have an item we need. But we still go to the store without any further research. We have reason to act on something without certainty. There are millions of examples of this.

So demanding certainty before action when it comes to Covid is unreasonable and to be honest, just plain silly. We shouldn’t demand certainty before acting, we should be demanding reasonable, actionable knowledge.

That said, we have strong, actionable knowledge that wearing masks saves lives. We have strong, actionable knowledge that lockdowns have worked and should continue to work. We have strong, actionable knowledge that testing is crucial to dealing with this pandemic.

I agree with your premise. A few things though:

There are varying degrees of certainty. Remembering AIDS from the 1980s, right now I'd say we are just beyond the toilet seat wiping, gay-bashing point of the virus.

But it's more complicated than that. There are many entities manipulating data/information/news(?) for their own agendas. So from traditional news, to social media, to the data itself, it has all been compromised, as I mentioned earlier. Garbage in, garbage out. We. don't. know. ****.

Now, to the part of your quote bolded above... Yes these things save lives in regard to COVID. These things save lives in regard to all viral infections, I would guess. But to what end? Our economy is in shambles. Supply chains are breaking down. Unskilled labor is out of work. Skilled labor is out of work. The cost of goods and services has gone through the roof. This is not just because of COVID, but also because of our reaction to COVID.

My gut feeling? Things are going to need to change dramatically if we are going to pull up from this. That is going to require inspired leaders. I'll leave it at that.

Trudeau (Canadian PM, not the Far Side artist, lol) gave a great speech about this the other day, I'll try to dig up.

[Bob Sheed]

Good post.

About your Edit. Personally, I wear a mask and would take a test. I still question how the NFL went so long with no cases until 2 days ago. I’m not questioning wearing masks or the tight protocols. I just wonder if “stuff” has been hidden. What I’m referring to is individual athletes quietly sitting out without getting tested so entire teams don’t have to sit out. It’s happening in high school sports so I wonder if there’s something fishy going on in the NFL too. I hope they’re not doing that and I hope they truly have had only one case, but nothing would surprise me with the NFL.

I agree. I would guess there is huge under-reporting in athletics from the professional level down to the high schools. "I mean, we isolated him. No need to ruin it for the whole team, right? Half the time it's a false positive anyway!"

Like I said above. All the data is garbage right now. It's like flying blind trying to make a rational decision.

[RedTeamGo!]

I agree with your premise. A few things though:

There are varying degrees of certainty. Remembering AIDS from the 1980s, right now I'd say we are just beyond the toilet seat wiping, gay-bashing point of the virus.

But it's more complicated than that. There are many entities manipulating data/information/news(?) for their own agendas. So from traditional news, to social media, to the data itself, it has all been compromised, as I mentioned earlier. Garbage in, garbage out. We. don't. know. ****.

Now, to the part of your quote bolded above... Yes these things save lives in regard to COVID. These things save lives in regard to all viral infections, I would guess. But to what end? Our economy is in shambles. Supply chains are breaking down. Unskilled labor is out of work. Skilled labor is out of work. The cost of goods and services has gone through the roof. This is not just because of COVID, but also because of our reaction to COVID.

My gut feeling? Things are going to need to change dramatically if we are going to pull up from this. That is going to require inspired leaders. I'll leave it at that.

Trudeau (Canadian PM, not the Far Side artist, lol) gave a great speech about this the other day, I'll try to dig up.

Yeah, I agree with just about everything you are saying on this. I am not going to pretend I know everything about this virus, people on both sides of the debate do this and it’s frustrating. Folks like Rojo, on the other hand act like they know everything there is to know about this and it’s silly to take precautions. Folks on the other side act like if you go for a walk without a mask on you and everyone you know will die. It’s so frustrating.

I do know this, though, as a person that works as a freight broker, I can tell you the supply chains are all completely ****ed right now and the prices of your consumer goods are going to skyrocket soon. This time last year a full truckload from Southern California to Ohio was running around $3,500 now you’re looking at $6,500-$7,500 and you will be lucky to find a truck to move it in a timely manner. Guess what’s in Southern California? You guessed it: the Port of LA. What comes into the port of LA? You guessed it, a bunch of stuff from China.

If you run a JIT operation right now you’re in trouble. And it’s not just southern CA, it’s the entire country. It is so hard to find truckload capacity right now. This time last year we were looking at around 2.21 loads per truck on the open market. We’ve been hovering around 5.75 loads per truck for months. It’s brutal. And this is having a negative effect on all forms of freight: parcel (UPS and FedEx) and LTL (pallet based shipments - think Old Dominion, XPO, and R+L. Truckload capacity is crazy so shippers are breaking their shipments down and overwhelming the LTL networks. LTL shippers are breaking their pallets down and shipping through and overwhelming the small parcel networks. This is resulting in increased rates across the board, delays, lost freight, and a lot of operational issues.

You’re probably saying to yourself: well, this means the economy is booming! Nah, it’s because of ton of truckload companies went out of business and a bunch of drivers decided to stay home. The vast majority of truckload capacity is small carriers. You ever see random trucks on the road and it says “Jimmy Jack Johnson Trucking” - that’s probably a small 20 truck carrier started by some guy named Jimmy Jack Johnson and a couple buddies, they are hanging on by a thread and are literally a week from going out of business. That scenario represents approximately 80% of the truckload market right now.

I’m making volume bonuses like crazy right now, but as a citizen and member of society: I am TERRIFIED.

[BuckeyeRed27]

Well for that NFL is hiding stuff group, the Titans just had at least 7 positives and are shut down until Saturday and likely won’t play this weekend. They played the Vikings Sunday, so they are shut down today too for more testing.

[Bob Sheed]

Yeah, I agree with just about everything you are saying on this. I am not going to pretend I know everything about this virus, people on both sides of the debate do this and it’s frustrating. Folks like Rojo, on the other hand act like they know everything there is to know about this and it’s silly to take precautions. Folks on the other side act like if you go for a walk without a mask on you and everyone you know will die. It’s so frustrating.

I do know this, though, as a person that works as a freight broker, I can tell you the supply chains are all completely ****ed right now and the prices of your consumer goods are going to skyrocket soon. This time last year a full truckload from Southern California to Ohio was running around $3,500 now you’re looking at $6,500-$7,500 and you will be lucky to find a truck to move it in a timely manner. Guess what’s in Southern California? You guessed it: the Port of LA. What comes into the port of LA? You guessed it, a bunch of stuff from China.

If you run a JIT operation right now you’re in trouble. And it’s not just southern CA, it’s the entire country. It is so hard to find truckload capacity right now. This time last year we were looking at around 2.21 loads per truck on the open market. We’ve been hovering around 5.75 loads per truck for months. It’s brutal. And this is having a negative effect on all forms of freight: parcel (UPS and FedEx) and LTL (pallet based shipments - think Old Dominion, XPO, and R+L. Truckload capacity is crazy so shippers are breaking their shipments down and overwhelming the LTL networks. LTL shippers are breaking their pallets down and shipping through and overwhelming the small parcel networks. This is resulting in increased rates across the board, delays, lost freight, and a lot of operational issues.

You’re probably saying to yourself: well, this means the economy is booming! Nah, it’s because of ton of truckload companies went out of business and a bunch of drivers decided to stay home. The vast majority of truckload capacity is small carriers. You ever see random trucks on the road and it says “Jimmy Jack Johnson Trucking” - that’s probably a small 20 truck carrier started by some guy named Jimmy Jack Johnson and a couple buddies, they are hanging on by a thread and are literally a week from going out of business. That scenario represents approximately 80% of the truckload market right now.

I’m making volume bonuses like crazy right now, but as a citizen and member of society: I am TERRIFIED.

The supply chains collapsing is something that not many are talking about. You have an inside look at this, and it confirms what I see from the outside.

I wanted 40 deck boards for my deck (for example). No one has them. And even when they do, the price of lumber has gone up 150% in the past year. Grocery prices, even when bargain shopping, have also gone through the roof.

What do people do that rely on the government for food? What do all the single moms/dads do? What do unskilled but employed workers making minimum wage or slightly higher do?

To say nothing of the virus itself. That's not even the major point of concern at this point.

There is this huge tsunami of crappiness on the horizon. And I'm not sure most are even aware. If you work supply chains, logistics, etc you are well aware, though. The rest seem more concerned about their inconveniences as individuals. They have no idea what's coming.

When winter hits and we have to get our veggies from South America instead of California, will that even be an option? And if it is, how much will the cost increase? This winter is going to be one for the ages.

[RedTeamGo!]

The supply chains collapsing is something that not many are talking about. You have an inside look at this, and it confirms what I see from the outside.

I wanted 40 deck boards for my deck (for example). No one has them. And even when they do, the price of lumber has gone up 150% in the past year. Grocery prices, even when bargain shopping, have also gone through the roof.

What do people do that rely on the government for food? What do all the single moms/dads do? What do unskilled but employed workers making minimum wage or slightly higher do?

To say nothing of the virus itself. That's not even the major point of concern at this point.

There is this huge tsunami of crappiness on the horizon. And I'm not sure most are even aware. If you work supply chains, logistics, etc you are well aware, though. The rest seem more concerned about their inconveniences as individuals. They have no idea what's coming.

Folks in my industry always say we are on the forefront of the economy. We see the bad or good times months before every other industry. Right now we are just keeping things moving as much as possible and we are watching this all happen around us. I’ve got coworkers who have been doing this for 25 years and they don’t even know what to say. It’s crazy. Never seen anything like this. I hope people read my last post and understand I am not be cynical or alarmist. This is happening and has been for about 2 months. November and December are going to extremely hard on this country, it’s just the beginning, and not because of the virus. ****s about to get real real.

[Bob Sheed]

Folks in my industry always say we are on the forefront of the economy. We see the bad or good times months before every other industry. Right now we are just keeping things moving as much as possible and we are watching this all happen around us. I’ve got coworkers who have been doing this for 25 years and they don’t even know what to say. It’s crazy. Never seen anything like this. I hope people read my last post and understand I am not be cynical or alarmist. This is happening and has been for about 2 months. November and December are going to extremely hard on this country, it’s just the beginning, and not because of the virus. ****s about to get real real.

It sounds like Chicken Little territory. And again, with the lack of uncompromised information, it's easy for many to treat it as such.

Fact is though, as a nation, we are not setup at all for this. When a can of vegetables is 5 bucks or whatever, even if supply chains remain somewhat intact, those 30% who, when polled, say they didn't have enough to eat last week, they will take what they need first. Then they will take what they want.

And I'm not seeing how we change course from that, regardless of who wins the election, regardless of what COVID has in store over the colder months.

Yes, it sounds quite chicken-little-esque to observe the poop storms that are all about to come to head at the same time, and wonder what on Earth we are going to do.

But here we are.