COVID-19, Part VIII - heading into flu season

[Coopdaddy67]

As I understand it, it's a combination of people being less diligent and of people spending more time indoors with others due to cooler weather.

As a country, we put in a decent effort for 3-4 weeks. Once the dam started breaking, it was a lost cause. It's hard to get people on board for an extended period of time when they see a significant chunk of the population flouting guidelines. A lot of older folks I know that wear masks, stay at home, etc. have reached the "if I get it, I get it" phase and returned to their daily lives.

Given the freedoms and economic reality of the western world, it's going to be hard to defend against ongoing spread. The only countries with a real shot of controlling it are islands.

[Falls City Beer]

https://www.axios.com/k-12-reopening...3914002c4.html

Schools haven’t become Covid hotspots.

[Boston Red]

https://www.axios.com/k-12-reopening...3914002c4.html

Schools haven’t become Covid hotspots.

That is consistent with our experience with our younger kids full time in school and our oldest half time in school (high school). Frankly, we've found the 50% model for high school fantastic. We wish they'd keep it forever. The flexibility it allows for is fantastic. Granted, we have a daughter who goes to the gym 4.5 hours/day 5 days a week for gymnastics, so our situation is a bit of a niche, but most other parents we talk to feel the same way.

[Coopdaddy67]

https://www.axios.com/k-12-reopening...3914002c4.html

Schools haven’t become Covid hotspots.

Several studies in the US and around the world have suggested the same thing, even in hotspot areas. The impact this virus has on children and its ability to spread compared to in adults is very interesting.

Some of these large school districts refusing to open the rest of the year or even until the next school year isn't good for the kids. The separation between public and private schools is going to be massive.

[RiverRat13]

Bad news - Ohio's percent positive rate is back up to 4.9%. We were at a state-low 2.6% six weeks ago.

Good news - https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...19-death-rates

[Boston Red]

Bad news - Ohio's percent positive rate is back up to 4.9%. We were at a state-low 2.6% six weeks ago.

Very consistent with our trend. We got down to 4.8% about 5 weeks ago and have about doubled that to 9.4% now. Our "peak" so far in this (what so far is a) mini-spike is still only 125 positive tests last Wednesday compared to a peak of 324 positive tests on August 14. But I certainly don't love the trend.

[Strikes Out Looking]

My state (Maryland) is at 3.11% today - we were down around 2.5% in early September. We are the Seinfeld of states - pretty even rates for months, can't get rid of it entirely, but no giant spikes. Most people are social distancing, wearing masks, etc... Next door neighbor, DC, is even better, which helps. Still too much of the virus around here, but its better than some places.

[kaldaniels]

Wisconsin has been in the news as they are getting hammered right now. But they are currently ranked 42nd in deaths per capita. (And frankly surrounded (on that list) by sparsely populated open sky states)

To me it seems the recent increase isn’t “the fault” of Wisconsin but yet another case of the virus hitting a spot where it really hadn’t got to yet.

I wish Kingspoint the best out in Oregon but that’s another state that worries me that the worst is yet to come, as the deaths per capita doesn’t match the population density. (Oregon is no New York but it’s not Montana either) They have dodged the bullet so far, relatively speaking of course.

[757690]

Several studies in the US and around the world have suggested the same thing, even in hotspot areas. The impact this virus has on children and its ability to spread compared to in adults is very interesting.

Some of these large school districts refusing to open the rest of the year or even until the next school year isn't good for the kids. The separation between public and private schools is going to be massive.

Key quote from the article:

Yes, but: The data, however encouraging, is still limited to smaller school districts, as most of the largest districts opened with fully remote learning.

It seems all the schools are making the right decisions. Those that have the ability to open safely, are doing so, and it’s been successful.

Those that can’t, due to their size, and the Covid rates in their area, are not, and that has been successful. Most if not all of these school districts are currently working on plans to open safely, and likely will be open in early 2021.

This is what we want. Each district making the decision itself, based on their individual situation. That is what is best for the students, the teachers, the parents... everyone.

[kaldaniels]

nm

[Boston Red]

Well, I don't think some of the ones that did NOT open made the right decision, but hopefully they truly ARE working to open in January 2021 and the experiences of the schools that have successfully opened already will provide useful guidance to those districts. And make parents in those districts feel better about their kids going back to school (to the extent they are not already clamoring for it).

[757690]

Well, I don't think some of the ones that did NOT open made the right decision, but hopefully they truly ARE working to open in January 2021 and the experiences of the schools that have successfully opened already will provide useful guidance to those districts. And make parents in those districts feel better about their kids going back to school (to the extent they are not already clamoring for it).

Curiously, which districts did not make the right decision in your opinion, and why?

[Boston Red]

Curiously, which districts did not make the right decision in your opinion, and why?

I would say that most of the ones that didn't open made the wrong decision (to the extent they didn't at least go 50% in-person instruction, which goes a long way to solving the distancing issue). I'd say they made the wrong decision because being in school in person is very important, and this data helps illustrate that the risks are at an acceptable level. But if they only lose one semester and get back to some form of in-person school in January, not a huge loss.

[757690]

I would say that most of the ones that didn't open made the wrong decision (to the extent they didn't at least go 50% in-person instruction, which goes a long way to solving the distancing issue). I'd say they made the wrong decision because being in school in person is very important, and this data helps illustrate that the risks are at an acceptable level. But if they only lose one semester and get back to some form of in-person school in January, not a huge loss.

Well I can only speak about the decisions that were made here in Los Angeles, but they all seemed to make the right decision imo.

The smaller, wealthier school districts did open with some sort of hybrid program, and have been successful. But most districts were unable to comply with the recommendations that the state health board set for schools to reopen. The two biggest obstacles were the building capacity to keep students 6 feet away from each other, and the Covid case rate being at an acceptable level.

Capacity has always been a problem in many of the less well off districts. I have had to teach in a trailer, because that was the only way the school could provide enough space for all it’s students. And this was pre-Covid. There is a severe lack of classroom space here in many districts in Los Angeles. This is what is making it difficult to get the students back into the classroom during this pandemic.

I think we all agree that students need to get back into classrooms. But I think it’s essential to also make sure it’s safe. It may be safe where you are, but that doesn’t mean it’s safe everywhere.

[Boston Red]

I would be surprised if there are many school districts that cannot keep their students six feet apart if they have half the class present in the morning and half present in the afternoon. I'm sure there are SOME that are that crowded normally, but surely it cannot be very many.