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Thread: COVID-19, Part VIII - heading into flu season

  1. #31
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Available? No.

    But it’s my understanding in addition to study doses, Pfizer and others are producing vaccines right now (at financial risk...whatever) as we speak. They are there. When do we unleash them to the vulnerable. I’m not saying today, but preliminary trial numbers should be coming in really soon.
    Yeah, wait. Why compound the problem?

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  4. #32
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Along those lines...I mentioned pushing a vaccine forward. Maybe you, rojo, and others support that. Maybe you don’t. (I’d bet not) But it’s a possible solution. And the response I got was “it could create zombies.”

    Well then, what do people suggest we do right now? 1500 people have died of COVID since I posted that a few days ago.

    No one (as in enough needed) is going to follow lockdowns unless it is enforced militarily...I don’t think we want that. What do we want? How do we end this? I don’t think the answer is everyone “mask up” or “avoid crowds” cause while that could work in theory, it’s not going to happen voluntarily.

    “But others countries handled it.” - ok but we are here in a mess now.

    We are in a rut. What do we do?
    The main reason why we shouldn’t rush a vaccine is that we don’t know if they work. The first two stages mostly test safety. It’s the third stage that tests efficacy. This takes time because we need to send those involved in the stage three test to go out into the world and see if they are immune from the virus. That takes months.

    The downside to sending out an untested vaccine to the whole world is multiple:

    1) It wastes time, money and resources. You mass produce an untested vaccine, and you delay the mass production of one that passes a stage three test. Remember, we are talking about making billions of tests. There are only so many places that can make them.

    2) It will take months to know if it works. If we assume that it works, and open up the world back to normal again, and it doesn’t work, that means a catastrophe. Millions of dead, and sending the world to a place worse than when the pandemic started. If we assume it doesn’t work, then what is the point? We would keep the world shut down for months until we know that it works. Which is what we would be doing if we just did a standard stage three test. Nothing gained.

    3) If anything goes wrong, it adds fuel to the anti-vaxxer arguement. It likely means fewer people trust a vaccine that does go through testing and proves to be effective. It sets the entire scientific world back and makes any improvements so much harder, not just for this pandemic, but for all world health issues.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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  5. #33
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Available? No.

    But it’s my understanding in addition to study doses, Pfizer and others are producing vaccines right now (at financial risk...whatever) as we speak. They are there. When do we unleash them to the vulnerable. I’m not saying today, but preliminary trial numbers should be coming in really soon.
    As soon as a vaccine passes a stage three test, millions of doses will be made available to the most vulnerable. That likely will happen in a few months. We aren’t talking years here.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  6. #34
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    literally open everything. Mask up, quarantine elderly, and get everyone back to work.
    Again, we pretty much have done this. The main problem is that too many people are masking up or following the protocols.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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  7. #35
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Again, we pretty much have done this. The main problem is that too many people are masking up or following the protocols.
    Our U6 unemployment of 14.6% says you’re way wrong.

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    Rojo (09-23-2020)

  9. #36
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Our U6 unemployment of 14.6% says you’re way wrong.
    It’s been explained to you before.

    Things are open. But people aren’t doing as much business because the virus is still out there and we don’t have it under control like we should have by now. It doesn’t matter how much you open things up if the numbers are so high that people are scared to go back to normal.

    All the data from around the world tells the opposite of what you are arguing. That we need to shut things down more, not less.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  10. #37
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    It’s been explained to you before.

    Things are open. But people aren’t doing as much business because the virus is still out there and we don’t have it under control like we should have by now. It doesn’t matter how much you open things up if the numbers are so high that people are scared to go back to normal.

    All the data from around the world tells the opposite of what you are arguing. That we need to shut things down more, not less.
    I guarantee if they actually just reported the numbers with all the psychotic hyperbole, people would get out and spend.

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  12. #38
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I guarantee if they actually just reported the numbers with all the psychotic hyperbole, people would get out and spend.
    204,115.

  13. #39
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    204,115.
    Yep. That’s fine. The majority of those deaths came between March 15th and June 5th (during lockdown). The death rate has slowed despite far more businesses being open than during the lockdown.

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    Rojo (09-23-2020)

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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    I guarantee if they actually just reported the numbers with all the psychotic hyperbole, people would get out and spend.
    People aren’t going out because of what they are reading in the papers. They aren’t going out because of what they are seeing within their own lives.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  16. #41
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Yep. That’s fine. The majority of those deaths came between March 15th and June 5th (during lockdown). The death rate has slowed despite far more businesses being open than during the lockdown.
    We are seeing around a 1,000 deaths a day, for many months now. It has not slowed. It has plateaued.

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    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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  17. #42
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    People aren’t going out because of what they are reading in the papers. They aren’t going out because of what they are seeing within their own lives.
    That isn't true at all. People are going out and places are maxed out, but capacity is very limited and the hassle just isn't worth it to stand in line for an hour. Hence, most of the unemployment is in the service industry. Right now, you can't even go out and watch an evening football game without leaving in the 3rd quarter, so people just say f' it or have parties at home.

    What we see with our own eyes is a scarcity of anyone being affected by this, and it's nothing like was predicted. I know exactly one person that tested positive, and he didn't even know it and was getting tested for other reasons. That is the experience of most people, unless they work in an assisted living center or have Facebook friends who know 20 people who died. About 1 out of 10,000 people have died in southern Ohio that wasn't already in a nursing home, and assuming that the average person has maybe 20 friends, it's unlikely that the pandemic is going to threaten their inner circle to the point where they won't go out for a pizza. Most people are not scared.

    People are spending, but money shifted. Funny enough, I flew out west for a job a couple of weeks ago to help out a manufacturer that makes aluminum beer cans and beer kegs. I kid you not, there must have been 100,000 empty beer kegs in a field next to the plant, and they said there at least a million more spread around the country because things like ballparks and fairs are shut down. So, they are spending massive money to build out their can lines because people are drinking beer at home now. The money is there and being spent, but the service industry is throttled, which employed many more than a bottling plant.

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  19. #43
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    You either support collateral damage or not. Rojo and I get called psychopaths for saying we should re-open the entire country with strong quarantine for elderly homes. You lockdown-the-world folks gotta pocket all these businesses collapsing, homelessness, suicide, increased drug abuse, starvation around the world—you know, those *other* entirely preventable negative outcomes. So cry no tears for the cinema biz. This is your preferred outcome.
    Here's the thing though. Those things are all open now, for the most part. I've been out to eat. Not going to bars or movie theatres though. Why?

    Because they aren't fun anymore. COVID precautions, and the constant reminders of the risk, absolutely ruin the experience for me.

    What I'm saying is, it's not the chicken or the egg with the economy and COVID closures. There's another element. Kind of a catch-22 when you think about it. OK fine so it's all open now. Full capacity for Reds games, at your own risk, for example. All surrounding bars open, full capacity allowed.

    I'm not getting near any of that until I know what is really going on with COVID. Many others feel the same.
    Last edited by Bob Sheed; 09-20-2020 at 08:01 PM.
    He said he was curious about the crowd but didn’t want to stay and talk. “I’m heading out,” he said. “This is a super-spreader event.”

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  21. #44
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by BernieCarbo View Post
    That isn't true at all. People are going out and places are maxed out, but capacity is very limited and the hassle just isn't worth it to stand in line for an hour. Hence, most of the unemployment is in the service industry. Right now, you can't even go out and watch an evening football game without leaving in the 3rd quarter, so people just say f' it or have parties at home.

    What we see with our own eyes is a scarcity of anyone being affected by this, and it's nothing like was predicted. I know exactly one person that tested positive, and he didn't even know it and was getting tested for other reasons. That is the experience of most people, unless they work in an assisted living center or have Facebook friends who know 20 people who died. About 1 out of 10,000 people have died in southern Ohio that wasn't already in a nursing home, and assuming that the average person has maybe 20 friends, it's unlikely that the pandemic is going to threaten their inner circle to the point where they won't go out for a pizza. Most people are not scared.

    People are spending, but money shifted. Funny enough, I flew out west for a job a couple of weeks ago to help out a manufacturer that makes aluminum beer cans and beer kegs. I kid you not, there must have been 100,000 empty beer kegs in a field next to the plant, and they said there at least a million more spread around the country because things like ballparks and fairs are shut down. So, they are spending massive money to build out their can lines because people are drinking beer at home now. The money is there and being spent, but the service industry is throttled, which employed many more than a bottling plant.
    The facts don’t back up the narrative you are spinning:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/harr...aurants-2020-7

    Poll finds 60% of Americans aren't ready to start dining out again, and it shows why restaurants being allowed to reopen won't prevent mass closures
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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  22. #45
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    Re: COVID-19, heading into flu season

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    People aren’t going out because of what they are reading in the papers. They aren’t going out because of what they are seeing within their own lives.
    Yeah....this. I used to be able to say "well I don't really know anyone personally who is dealing with it currently". But that number is growing every week. Contrastly, the news seems to downplay it more every week. It's the polar opposite of what it was for me from March to August. (I knew no one personally who had it, but it was dominating the news.)

    It's flipped. And that is strange to me.
    Last edited by Bob Sheed; 09-20-2020 at 08:02 PM.
    He said he was curious about the crowd but didn’t want to stay and talk. “I’m heading out,” he said. “This is a super-spreader event.”

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    KittyDuran (09-21-2020)


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