Joel Luckhaupt
@jluckhaupt
So I'm going to attempt to go through all of the scenarios where the Reds would be the winner of a tie-breaker vs the remaining key contenders. The Reds have already lost the tie-breaker to the Cardinals, so they have to beat them outright by record to finish in front of them.

Reds Tie-break scenarios with Phillies:
If Phillies lose 2 more games to the Nats than the Reds lose to the Brewers, Reds get the tie-breaker

Reds Tie-break scenarios with Marlins:
If Marlins lose 3 more games to the Braves than the Reds lose to the Brewers, Reds get the tie-breaker

Reds Tie-break scenarios with Giants:
If Giants lose 2 more games the rest of the way than the Reds lose to the Brewers, Reds get the tie-breaker

Reds Tie-break scenarios with Brewers:
Reds win at least 2 of 3 in this series, Reds get tie-breaker
Reds win 1 of 3, if Brewers win 2 or fewer against STL, Reds get tie-breaker, otherwise Brewers get it
Reds win 0 of 3, Brewers get tie-breaker

I think these are all accurate. The Reds can have the same intra-divisional record as the Brewers & Phillies and still get the tie-breaker because they win the 3rd tie-break rule. They need to have a better intra-divisional record than the Marlins & Giants to get it vs them.

And of course, none of this matters if they just finish with a better record than 7 other NL teams.



If you think something is wrong in these scenarios, please point it out. I did all of this by eyeballing it and math'd in my head, so I may have messed up some mundane detail.