David Bell Needs to...Stay?

[M2]

This team should be way better than .500

Sure, and over 162 games, I'm guessing it would be. We've gotten to see what it looks like when more of the bats are hitting and the bullpen is functional, and it's pretty good. In a normal season the Reds would be looking at another 100 games with a team that looks to have hit its stride. I don't think there's much to be learned from the funhouse mirror that is a 60-game season. For instance, the Marlins are trash and the Cubs have a pillow soft underbelly.

[westofyou]

This team should be way better than .500

Then blame the talent, baseball is not a game plan sport

[Phoenix2]

The Reds got into the postseason for the first time in 7 years. But Bell won't get anywhere near the NL manager of the year award.

[M2]

The Reds got into the postseason for the first time in 7 years. But Bell won't get anywhere near the NL manager of the year award.

So?

[757690]

Sure, and over 162 games, I'm guessing it would be. We've gotten to see what it looks like when more of the bats are hitting and the bullpen is functional, and it's pretty good. In a normal season the Reds would be looking at another 100 games with a team that looks to have hit its stride. I don't think there's much to be learned from the funhouse mirror that is a 60-game season. For instance, the Marlins are trash and the Cubs have a pillow soft underbelly.

Why think this is the real Reds and not the team in the first 45 games? Why choose to value a group of 15 games over a group of 45?

[Griffey4MVP]

Why think this is the real Reds and not the team in the first 45 games? Why choose to value a group of 15 games over a group of 45?

For me the last 15 games are more in line with historical performance for just about every player than anything in the first 45 games, maybe excluding the starting pitching which has been great all year.

[M2]

Why think this is the real Reds and not the team in the first 45 games? Why choose to value a group of 15 games over a group of 45?

Because the pen is now competent and the offensive luck has started to normalize (along with established good hitters starting to hit). I don't see any particular reason why this team wouldn't continue to play well. Resembles a good team too much not to be a good team.

[757690]

Because the pen is now competent and the offensive luck has started to normalize (along with established good hitters starting to hit). I don't see any particular reason why this team wouldn't continue to play well. Resembles a good team too much not to be a good team.

The offensive luck really hasn’t normalized, the Reds are still at historic levels with BABIP.

One reason why I could see the Reds not play this well is how poorly they played the 45 games previously. In those games, the resemble a losing team all too well.

[M2]

The offensive luck really hasn’t normalized, the Reds are still at historic levels with BABIP.

One reason why I could see the Reds not play this well is how poorly they played the 45 games previously. In those games, the resemble a losing team all too well.

The BABIP's picking up (now a robust .243!). If you think they can't do better than an all-time worst BABIP and the pitching will go kerplooey, then we just disagree at a fundamental level about the team playing in front of us.

Yet if they've got those fatal flaws and they're still heading to the playoffs, then maybe David Bell is genius. I thought he'd just gotten a good team to hit its stride.

[UPRedsFan]

Why think this is the real Reds and not the team in the first 45 games? Why choose to value a group of 15 games over a group of 45?

#'s will gravitate to career norms (for players still in their prime)

[PuffyPig]

I don't disagree with your overall premise, but Castillo was pretty pedestrian until his last couple starts.

The analytics suggest he’s been our best starter all year.


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[757690]

For me the last 15 games are more in line with historical performance for just about every player than anything in the first 45 games, maybe excluding the starting pitching which has been great all year.

That is a good reason. However, it may not be perfectly accurate.

During the Reds recent winning streak, they put up a .764 OPS. Before that, their team OPS was .728. So that does fall in line with your theory. But the pitching during the streak had a 2.63 ERA, driven mostly by the pen being especially strong. Before the streak, the team ERA was 4.24.

So while the batters were a bit more in line with what would be expected (.764 is right around league average), the pitchers were exceptional. It seems that during the streak, the pitching was almost two runs a game better than expected (4.24 ERA is actually better than league average.) My guess is that the Reds are more likely to play closer to where they played in the first 45 games, than in their last 15 games.

[Kc61]

During the Reds recent winning streak, they put up a .764 OPS. Before that, their team OPS was .728.

I’m not sure how this is possible since the Reds final OPS for the season was .715.

After 45 games Reds team OPS was .710.

[kaldaniels]

That is a good reason. However, it may not be perfectly accurate.

During the Reds recent winning streak, they put up a .764 OPS. Before that, their team OPS was .728. So that does fall in line with your theory. But the pitching during the streak had a 2.63 ERA, driven mostly by the pen being especially strong. Before the streak, the team ERA was 4.24.

So while the batters were a bit more in line with what would be expected (.764 is right around league average), the pitchers were exceptional. It seems that during the streak, the pitching was almost two runs a game better than expected (4.24 ERA is actually better than league average.) My guess is that the Reds are more likely to play closer to where they played in the first 45 games, than in their last 15 games.

If we are playing the “what will they play closer to” it will always be hard to be “closer” to a 10-2 finish (or whatever it was).

I’d say the Reds are more likely to play “close” to just over .500 baseball on a day-in day-out basis. Which is what their overall record reflects, despite the strange way they arrived at it.

I’m not saying you are doing this but this isn’t a question of “Pick a side! Which team are they? The first 45 games team or the last 15 games?! Choose!”

[757690]

If we are playing the “what will they play closer to” it will always be hard to be “closer” to a 10-2 finish (or whatever it was).

I’d say the Reds are more likely to play “close” to just over .500 baseball on a day-in day-out basis. Which is what their overall record reflects, despite the strange way they arrived at it.

I’m not saying you are doing this but this isn’t a question of “Pick a side! Which team are they? The first 45 games team or the last 15 games?! Choose!”

I think that is about right. I merely was pushing back on this notion that many posters have been promoting, that the team during this hot streak is who they really are, and the first 45 games were just the result of bad luck.