Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
*BaseClogger* (09-24-2020),CaiGuy (09-24-2020),Edd Roush (09-23-2020),fondfoat (09-23-2020),Ron Madden (09-23-2020),Tom Servo (09-23-2020)
The Reds were predicted by most experts to win or compete for the division title. They aren't close to that. They are competing for the 8th spot in an expanded playoffs.
I'm excited by this Reds finish, and their competing for a playoff spot, but let's not pretend that they are playing up to expectations.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
AlaskaReds (09-24-2020),OGB (09-24-2020),Phoenix2 (09-24-2020),Wonderful Monds (09-23-2020)
It looks like at the end of he day today “in a regular season” the Reds would be tied (in the standings) with Miami and STL (maybe SF) for the last wildcard.
Now the different number of games played causes a disparity in winning percentage this year but the Reds would still be “in the hunt” in a normal season.
Disappointing perhaps, but we wouldn’t even be 2 months into the year. So on the whole a bit disappointing but nothing outrageous.
*BaseClogger* (09-24-2020),fondfoat (09-23-2020)
The point is that using projections isn’t that meaningful, as they project most teams to be around .500. It’s is quite rare for projections to be too far off, even by teams that surprise.
To put another way, if the Reds finished 6 games below .500, with 27 wins, they still would be close to their projected win total.
Last edited by 757690; 09-23-2020 at 10:30 PM.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
*BaseClogger* (09-24-2020),fondfoat (09-26-2020),Tom Servo (09-23-2020)
I don't care what Jim Bowden or his ilk "predicted". Based on their talent, they were projected to win ~31 games. That's about where they're going to end up. Ideal? No. But they're going to wind up at or within a game or two of where people who are smart enough to make projections rather than predictions had them.
Meanwhile, they're 3.5 games of the division lead with 3 to play. That's pretty close to "compete for the division title" in my book. Again, I'd rather be in the Cubs spot right now.
But point being, all the people freaking out about David Bell and the front office screwing the pooch as evidenced by the record half way through the season should be eating a bit of crow when the team turned out to be more or less what we thought they were before the season started. And if you were expecting, not hoping for, but expecting 35 wins and a division title, that's on you for having expectations that were not matched by the quality of the roster.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Edd Roush (09-24-2020),fondfoat (09-26-2020),Ron Madden (09-24-2020)
The average projection is off by about 8-10 wins per 162 or 3 wins per 60. So, yeah, in a 60 game season, a team projected to win 30 games could win 27 and it would be well within reasonable expectation given the projection.
That doesn't mean projections aren't "meaningful". It means the spread of team-level talent in baseball is generally fairly narrow and performance reasonably challenging to predict. The point is that the Reds weren't projected to win, say, 35 games and be a strong divisional favorite, where a 27 win season would constitute a pretty big miss. They were projected to be right around .500 and in the thick of the playoff race, which they are.
And if a projection isn't meaningful, what does that say about some talking head or forum poster's predictions, which are basically guaranteed to be even more wrong, on average, than the projection systems?
I think it really comes down to the fact that this season still felt crappy because of how poor the start was. It rarely felt like we were in it. If the distribution of wins and losses was different and were were hanging at or above .500 most of the season, none of this narrative would be coming up.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-24-2020 at 01:16 AM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Edd Roush (09-24-2020),fondfoat (09-26-2020),Ron Madden (09-24-2020)
Ask Reds fans if this team lived up to their expectations. The answer is obvious.
This is what I am most afraid of. The Reds sneaking into the playoffs because of the flakiness of the season and schedule and expanded format, and the Reds front office thinking they did a good job this off season, that they built a good team, that they should keep doing what they are doing.
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Phoenix2 (09-24-2020)
Because it’s a 60 game season, most projections will be close, because, as you point out, 1 game is like 3 games. So being off by 3 games means you are off by 9 games. Most projections will only be off by a few games, but only because of the shortened schedule.
Only 4 teams were projected to win 35 games or more and only 3 teams were projected to win fewer than 25. So pretty much every team was going to fall close to their projection with a narrow spread like that.
It’s not that projections are meaningless, just that they don’t tell us much about well a team actually performed compared to them, since most projections are going to be close, even if a team surprises.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
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