Turn Off Ads?
Page 4 of 17 FirstFirst 1234567814 ... LastLast
Results 46 to 60 of 243

Thread: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

  1. #46
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    28,613

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by Phoenix2 View Post
    Beyond bullpen usage, I was amazed how in a short 60 game season how often Bell was playing his less talented position players. Seemed to me like he was more interested in playing everybody then winning baseball games. The only way for management to stop it was to take those lesser talented players away from him.
    That’s partially Bell’s style. However, when a team is hitting .210, even lower early in the season, it’s going to lead a manager to try some different hitters.

    Especially in a sixty game season, you want the offense to get going, can’t wait forever.


  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #47
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    16,059

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBrick View Post
    Took offense? Not even close. You were simply incorrect based on what I stated.
    Fine, “met with pushback.”

    Best hitter this year? Yes.
    Best hitter this month (Sept)? No.
    Best hitter this week? No.

    Not everyone takes best hitter as “best hitter this year” which is why I softly prefaced it with “debatably.” Only after that was it qualified by you.

  4. #48
    Member RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    18,810

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    People looove to ascribe narrative to events mostly unfolding in a statistically random way. The players care now but they didn't care earlier in the season! Bell must have given a locker room speech!
    Funny how this team is going to finish right around where the projections had it finishing despite having this disaster of a manger, isn't it?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. Likes:

    *BaseClogger* (09-24-2020),CaiGuy (09-24-2020),Edd Roush (09-23-2020),fondfoat (09-23-2020),Ron Madden (09-23-2020),Tom Servo (09-23-2020)

  6. #49
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    25,253

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Funny how this team is going to finish right around where the projections had it finishing despite having this disaster of a manger, isn't it?
    The Reds were predicted by most experts to win or compete for the division title. They aren't close to that. They are competing for the 8th spot in an expanded playoffs.

    I'm excited by this Reds finish, and their competing for a playoff spot, but let's not pretend that they are playing up to expectations.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  7. Likes:

    AlaskaReds (09-24-2020),OGB (09-24-2020),Phoenix2 (09-24-2020),Wonderful Monds (09-23-2020)

  8. #50
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    16,059

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    It looks like at the end of he day today “in a regular season” the Reds would be tied (in the standings) with Miami and STL (maybe SF) for the last wildcard.

    Now the different number of games played causes a disparity in winning percentage this year but the Reds would still be “in the hunt” in a normal season.

    Disappointing perhaps, but we wouldn’t even be 2 months into the year. So on the whole a bit disappointing but nothing outrageous.

  9. #51
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    11,857

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The Reds were predicted by most experts to win or compete for the division title. They aren't close to that. They are competing for the 8th spot in an expanded playoffs.

    I'm excited by this Reds finish, and their competing for a playoff spot, but let's not pretend that they are playing up to expectations.
    They were projected to finish around 31.5 wins

  10. Likes:

    Edd Roush (09-23-2020),fondfoat (09-23-2020)

  11. #52
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    25,253

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    They were projected to finish around 31.5 wins
    Projection systems are conservative by nature, and rarely project a team to be too much above or below .500.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  12. #53
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    11,857

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Projection systems are conservative by nature, and rarely project a team to be too much above or below .500.
    Well like it or not that was the projection.

    We're not talking about talking heads on TV here

  13. Likes:

    *BaseClogger* (09-24-2020),fondfoat (09-23-2020)

  14. #54
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    25,253

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    Well like it or not that was the projection.

    We're not talking about talking heads on TV here
    The point is that using projections isn’t that meaningful, as they project most teams to be around .500. It’s is quite rare for projections to be too far off, even by teams that surprise.

    To put another way, if the Reds finished 6 games below .500, with 27 wins, they still would be close to their projected win total.
    Last edited by 757690; 09-23-2020 at 10:30 PM.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  15. #55
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    11,857

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The point is that using projections isn’t that meaningful, as they project most teams to be around .500. It’s is quite rare for projections to be too far off, even by teams that surprise.
    Run along now and find someone else to argue with.

  16. Likes:

    *BaseClogger* (09-24-2020),fondfoat (09-26-2020),Tom Servo (09-23-2020)

  17. #56
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    25,253

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    Run along now and find someone else to argue with.
    As I said I am ecstatic that the Reds are competing for a playoff spots. But I will not pretend that the Reds are playing up to expectations. No one should.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  18. #57
    Member RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    18,810

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The Reds were predicted by most experts to win or compete for the division title. They aren't close to that. They are competing for the 8th spot in an expanded playoffs.

    I'm excited by this Reds finish, and their competing for a playoff spot, but let's not pretend that they are playing up to expectations.
    I don't care what Jim Bowden or his ilk "predicted". Based on their talent, they were projected to win ~31 games. That's about where they're going to end up. Ideal? No. But they're going to wind up at or within a game or two of where people who are smart enough to make projections rather than predictions had them.

    Meanwhile, they're 3.5 games of the division lead with 3 to play. That's pretty close to "compete for the division title" in my book. Again, I'd rather be in the Cubs spot right now.

    But point being, all the people freaking out about David Bell and the front office screwing the pooch as evidenced by the record half way through the season should be eating a bit of crow when the team turned out to be more or less what we thought they were before the season started. And if you were expecting, not hoping for, but expecting 35 wins and a division title, that's on you for having expectations that were not matched by the quality of the roster.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  19. Likes:

    Edd Roush (09-24-2020),fondfoat (09-26-2020),Ron Madden (09-24-2020)

  20. #58
    Member RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    18,810

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The point is that using projections isn’t that meaningful, as they project most teams to be around .500. It’s is quite rare for projections to be too far off, even by teams that surprise.

    To put another way, if the Reds finished 6 games below .500, with 27 wins, they still would be close to their projected win total.
    The average projection is off by about 8-10 wins per 162 or 3 wins per 60. So, yeah, in a 60 game season, a team projected to win 30 games could win 27 and it would be well within reasonable expectation given the projection.

    That doesn't mean projections aren't "meaningful". It means the spread of team-level talent in baseball is generally fairly narrow and performance reasonably challenging to predict. The point is that the Reds weren't projected to win, say, 35 games and be a strong divisional favorite, where a 27 win season would constitute a pretty big miss. They were projected to be right around .500 and in the thick of the playoff race, which they are.

    And if a projection isn't meaningful, what does that say about some talking head or forum poster's predictions, which are basically guaranteed to be even more wrong, on average, than the projection systems?

    I think it really comes down to the fact that this season still felt crappy because of how poor the start was. It rarely felt like we were in it. If the distribution of wins and losses was different and were were hanging at or above .500 most of the season, none of this narrative would be coming up.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-24-2020 at 01:16 AM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  21. Likes:

    Edd Roush (09-24-2020),fondfoat (09-26-2020),Ron Madden (09-24-2020)

  22. #59
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    25,253

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The average projection is off by about 8-10 wins per 162 or 3-4 wins per 60. So, yeah, in a 60 game season, a team projected to win 30 games could win 27 and it would be well within reasonable expectation given the projection.

    That doesn't mean projections aren't "meaningful". It means the spread of team-level talent in baseball is generally fairly narrow and performance reasonably challenging to predict. The point is that the Reds weren't projected to win, say, 35 games, where a 27 win season would constitute a pretty big miss.

    And if a projection isn't meaningful, what does that say about some talking head or forum poster's predictions, which are basically guaranteed to be even more wrong, on average, than the projection systems?
    Ask Reds fans if this team lived up to their expectations. The answer is obvious.

    This is what I am most afraid of. The Reds sneaking into the playoffs because of the flakiness of the season and schedule and expanded format, and the Reds front office thinking they did a good job this off season, that they built a good team, that they should keep doing what they are doing.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  23. Likes:

    Phoenix2 (09-24-2020)

  24. #60
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    25,253

    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The average projection is off by about 8-10 wins per 162 or 3 wins per 60. So, yeah, in a 60 game season, a team projected to win 30 games could win 27 and it would be well within reasonable expectation given the projection.

    That doesn't mean projections aren't "meaningful". It means the spread of team-level talent in baseball is generally fairly narrow and performance reasonably challenging to predict. The point is that the Reds weren't projected to win, say, 35 games and be a strong divisional favorite, where a 27 win season would constitute a pretty big miss. They were projected to be right around .500 and in the thick of the playoff race, which they are.

    And if a projection isn't meaningful, what does that say about some talking head or forum poster's predictions, which are basically guaranteed to be even more wrong, on average, than the projection systems?

    I think it really comes down to the fact that this season still felt crappy because of how poor the start was. It rarely felt like we were in it. If the distribution of wins and losses was different and were were hanging at or above .500 most of the season, none of this narrative would be coming up.
    Because it’s a 60 game season, most projections will be close, because, as you point out, 1 game is like 3 games. So being off by 3 games means you are off by 9 games. Most projections will only be off by a few games, but only because of the shortened schedule.

    Only 4 teams were projected to win 35 games or more and only 3 teams were projected to win fewer than 25. So pretty much every team was going to fall close to their projection with a narrow spread like that.

    It’s not that projections are meaningless, just that they don’t tell us much about well a team actually performed compared to them, since most projections are going to be close, even if a team surprises.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | cumberlandreds | Gallen5862 | Kinsm | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator