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Thread: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

  1. #61
    Member RedsBrick's Avatar
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Fine, “met with pushback.”

    Best hitter this year? Yes.
    Best hitter this month (Sept)? No.
    Best hitter this week? No.

    Not everyone takes best hitter as “best hitter this year” which is why I softly prefaced it with “debatably.” Only after that was it qualified by you.
    Best hitter this day...
    Best hitter this at bat...

    Oh the madness, where does it end?

    Good gosh man, let it go. I stated my thoughts, you initiated the pushback.
    Last edited by RedsBrick; 09-24-2020 at 10:31 AM.


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  3. #62
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsBrick View Post
    Best hitter this day...
    Best hitter this at bat...

    Oh the madness, where does it end?

    Good gosh man, let it go. I stated my thoughts, you initiated the pushback.
    We’ve moved on man.

    Today it’s 757690 vs Rick.

    Try to keep up.

  4. #63
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    The average projection is off by about 8-10 wins per 162 or 3 wins per 60. So, yeah, in a 60 game season, a team projected to win 30 games could win 27 and it would be well within reasonable expectation given the projection.

    That doesn't mean projections aren't "meaningful". It means the spread of team-level talent in baseball is generally fairly narrow and performance reasonably challenging to predict. The point is that the Reds weren't projected to win, say, 35 games and be a strong divisional favorite, where a 27 win season would constitute a pretty big miss. They were projected to be right around .500 and in the thick of the playoff race, which they are.

    And if a projection isn't meaningful, what does that say about some talking head or forum poster's predictions, which are basically guaranteed to be even more wrong, on average, than the projection systems?

    I think it really comes down to the fact that this season still felt crappy because of how poor the start was. It rarely felt like we were in it. If the distribution of wins and losses was different and were were hanging at or above .500 most of the season, none of this narrative would be coming up.
    A couple of adds to this.

    1. The Central (AL and NL combined) turned out to be the toughest draw. There's seven decent to very good teams in that mix. Put the Reds in the East or the West and they're probably a few games better than their current record.

    2. We really can't overemphasize the short season randomness here. The Reds very well could be a heavy team over the course of 162-game season. They have outstanding starting pitching and their hitting numbers theoretically should do nothing but improve. Bell's job was/is to get the team playing well, and he's done that. They have to cap it off by securing a playoff spot. We'd all love to have some of those early games back, but the job of the manager isn't to show up on Opening Day with a fully baked cake. It's to bake it over the course of the season. Right now he's got the icing on the spatula.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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  6. #64
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    A couple of adds to this.

    1. The Central (AL and NL combined) turned out to be the toughest draw. There's seven decent to very good teams in that mix. Put the Reds in the East or the West and they're probably a few games better than their current record.

    2. We really can't overemphasize the short season randomness here. The Reds very well could be a heavy team over the course of 162-game season. They have outstanding starting pitching and their hitting numbers theoretically should do nothing but improve. Bell's job was/is to get the team playing well, and he's done that. They have to cap it off by securing a playoff spot. We'd all love to have some of those early games back, but the job of the manager isn't to show up on Opening Day with a fully baked cake. It's to bake it over the course of the season. Right now he's got the icing on the spatula.
    Agree. This short season makes all things hard to determine

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  8. #65
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    A couple of adds to this.

    1. The Central (AL and NL combined) turned out to be the toughest draw. There's seven decent to very good teams in that mix. Put the Reds in the East or the West and they're probably a few games better than their current record.

    2. We really can't overemphasize the short season randomness here. The Reds very well could be a heavy team over the course of 162-game season. They have outstanding starting pitching and their hitting numbers theoretically should do nothing but improve. Bell's job was/is to get the team playing well, and he's done that. They have to cap it off by securing a playoff spot. We'd all love to have some of those early games back, but the job of the manager isn't to show up on Opening Day with a fully baked cake. It's to bake it over the course of the season. Right now he's got the icing on the spatula.
    This is just silly. The manager’s job is to make sure the team is ready to win from day one. All the games matter. This team was playing poorly as recently as two weeks ago, terrible fundamentals, sloppy play, unfocused. Bell needs to be held accountable for all of that. A nice two week winning streak doesn’t erase any of that.

    And let’s be clear, the Reds have had a strong two week swing. And that has brought them to .500. A mediocre team. That is what Bell has baked. He shouldn’t be icing anything and he definitely doesn’t deserve to be adding sprinkles.

    As for having a tough draw, the Reds have had one of the easiest schedules in the majors. 27 out of 30 according to this site.

    https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/ran...ength-by-other
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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  10. #66
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    This is just silly. The manager’s job is to make sure the team is ready to win from day one. All the games matter. This team was playing poorly as recently as two weeks ago, terrible fundamentals, sloppy play, unfocused. Bell needs to be held accountable for all of that. A nice two week winning streak doesn’t erase any of that.
    That's exactly what it does. One good stretch erased their sluggish start. Now they're above .500 and three games away from putting themselves into the playoffs. If you thought the Reds could be a good team this season, they're delivering on that potential.

    And they'll have played 40 of their 60 games this season against the Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Twins, White Sox and Indians.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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  12. #67
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    That's exactly what it does. One good stretch erased their sluggish start. Now they're above .500 and three games away from putting themselves into the playoffs. If you thought the Reds could be a good team this season, they're delivering on that potential.

    And they'll have played 40 of their 60 games this season against the Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Twins, White Sox and Indians.
    .500 is mediocre. That’s not good. That’s average. I, and most fans were expecting more, were expecting them to be good, not just decent enough to sneak into the playoffs because over half the teams get in.

    And no, two good weeks doesn’t erase all the others games. Those games still exist. The Reds played poorly during them and Bell managed poorly during them. All of that is still true.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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  14. #68
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    “A wonderful gift may not be wrapped as you expect.”

    ― Jonathan Lockwood Huie

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  16. #69
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    .500 is mediocre. That’s not good. That’s average. I, and most fans were expecting more, were expecting them to be good, not just decent enough to sneak into the playoffs because over half the teams get in.

    And no, two good weeks doesn’t erase all the others games. Those games still exist. The Reds played poorly during them and Bell managed poorly during them. All of that is still true.
    The Nationals were 27-33 after 60 last year.

    We don't know what this team would do with 162 games.
    Last edited by CaiGuy; 09-24-2020 at 02:24 PM.

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  18. #70
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    The Nationals were 27-33 after 60 last year.

    We don't know what this team would do with 162 games.
    If this teamed played 162 games this season, and won the World Series, that would change everything.

    But you’re right, we will never know what this team would do over a full season. We do know what they have done over 57 games and the first 46 were played poorly.

    Again, I am excited about the Reds being in the hunt right now and hope they make the playoffs and knock off the Dodgers in the first round. But I don’t want this brief and well timed success to make us forget how bad they were in the first 46 games of the season.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  19. #71
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    dont forgot having colon bat in the bottom of the ninth in vottos spot

  20. #72
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    I'm only posting in this thread because it's front and center...

    Why on earth do you bring in Iglesias in the 8th to face 6-7-8?
    (Referring to Jack Hannahan signing with a Korean team)
    Since there are no teams on the moon, I guess South Korea's far enough from Cincinnati to satisfy me.
    -RichRed

  21. #73
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by OGB View Post
    I'm only posting in this thread because it's front and center...

    Why on earth do you bring in Iglesias in the 8th to face 6-7-8?
    Because the game was on the line right there. Bell had himself a very good night tonight.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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  23. #74
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    Quote Originally Posted by OGB View Post
    I'm only posting in this thread because it's front and center...

    Why on earth do you bring in Iglesias in the 8th to face 6-7-8?
    He was warming up in case Sims got in trouble to create a high leverage situation and had to be brought in early bc Sims accidentally hit Buxton in the head. It was super ugly and accidental and Sims was (rightfully) visibly shaken and on his mind after it happened. Someone else has to come in and the choice was iggy since he was already warming in case he was needed.


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  24. #75
    5.3 Posts Abv Replacement BluegrassRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: David Bell Needs to...Stay?

    I'm still not a fan, but he pushed every right button tonight, and he's been solid the last couple of weeks.
    Rounding third and heading for home...


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