Reds stats after 60 games, 2020

[Kc61]

Reds' fourth quarter of 2020 season highly successful with 11-4 W-L. Made NL playoffs as wild card, finished third in Central just 3 games behind Cubs and fractional pct behind Cards. Reds improved from -25 to 0 RS/RA in final quarter. Reds finished 16-13 home, 15-16 road. Reds 18-12 against teams under .500, 13-17 against teams at or above .500. Four NL Central teams made playoffs this season.

Offense - Reds finished .212/.312/.403/.715, with OPS improving slightly from Q3 .710. Reds OPS ninth in NL with BA and .245 BABIP lowest in MLB. Reds ISO power .191 fourth best in NL. Reds with NL-best 11.3% BB% but third highest K% of 25.2. Reds wRC+ of 91 tied with Cubs for 10th-11th in league. Reds home OPS .771 and road OPS .659. Big difference is SLG, Reds home .448, road .358.

Notably, NL Central teams all struggled offensively. Reds .715 OPS actually led the division. Cubs, .705, were 10th in NL and Brewers (.702), Cards (.694), and Pirates (.641) with three lowest OPS in NL. NL Central teams faced tough pitching with Reds 1st, Brewers 2nd, Cubs 5th in NL pitching fWAR and AL opponents Indians 1st, Twins 2nd, and White Sox 6th in AL fWar.

Reds individually, OPS leaders Winker .932 despite late slump, Casali .866 and Votto .800. Over last 14 days, Votto at 1.034, Moustakas .916, Galvis .859, Akiyama .816, Casali .808. Reds led by Castellanos with 15 homers, Suarez with 14. For Statcast fans, Reds top average EV was Winker at 92.1 and top Max EV was Votto 113.2.

Pitching - Reds finished with 3.84 ERA, second in NL, improved from 4.14 at end of Q3. As per Fangraphs, Reds fourth in NL in FIP at 3.92. Reds starters third in NL ERA at 3.50, Reds relievers eighth at 4.53 with 13-7 W-L record. Last 14 days, Reds team ERA 2.63, led MLB. FIP also MLB best, 3.02 over that period. Over full season Reds pitchers with 10.98 overall K rate, highest in MLB. Reds BB rate 3.80 7th highest in NL. Reds 1.20 HR rate fourth lowest in NL, very good. Reds home ERA 4.17, fifth best in NL. Reds road ERA, second best in NL, 3.59.

Bauer Cy Young favorite with 1.73 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 12.33 K rate, 2.10 BB rate. Castillo 3.21 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 11.44 K rate, 3.09 BB rate. Gray, 3.70 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 11.57 K rate, 4.18 BB rate. Iglesias with outstanding 12.13 K rate and 1.96 BB rate. Strikeouts galore for Reds pitchers.

Fielding - Reds -4.0 in Fangraphs Def, 10th in NL, improved since Q3 (-5.1). Using same metric, Barnhart by far the best Reds rating at 4.7, fourth best among NL catchers.

Onto the playoffs!

[Kc61]

Edit to above post - Reds were first in NL pitching fWAR, Brewers second, Cubs fifth. In AL, Indians first, Twins second, Chisox sixth.

Either I misread or Fangraphs clarified for its final stats.

Most interesting about year end stats is the impact of the limited schedule. NL Central teams all struggled offensively, facing only the two Central Divisions. Those two divisions had some excellent pitching staffs.

Had Reds faced other divisions, such as the NL East, they might have had better offensive numbers.

This doesn’t entirely get Reds off the hook for offense - they had serious difficulties outside of GABP. This should be part of the thinking for changes next season.

[foster15]

Edit to above post - Reds were first in NL pitching fWAR, Brewers second, Cubs fifth. In AL, Indians first, Twins second, Chisox sixth.

Most interesting about year end stats is the impact of the limited schedule. NL Central teams all struggled offensively, facing only the two Central Divisions. Those two divisions had some excellent pitching staffs.

Had Reds faced other divisions, such as the NL East, they might have had better offensive numbers.

With the consistent differences between the cross-division schedule, stats just don't reveal much. Maybe the Reds do have better offensive stats if they played in the West or East, but they also would've had worse pitching stats. Is the AL and NL Central pitching best? or is the AL and NL Central offense the worst? Or is it a combination of both? And then to delve down even further, between those two divisions, is one better than the other in offense or defense? Who had the pitching advantage? The White Sox who got to play 10 games against the Indians, Twins, Tigers and Royals or the Reds who got to play 10 games against the Cubs, Cards, Brewers and Pirates?

The fact that so many teams from the same schedule pod are bunched together in both the offensive and defensive stats makes it perfectly clear to me that 3 groups of teams played in 3 different worlds and the stats don't give many answers. Some of these questions that remain, will be answered in the playoffs though, especially for the NL central who play 4 different opponents from the other divisions in the first round.

[Kc61]

With the consistent differences between the cross-division schedule, stats just don't reveal much. Maybe the Reds do have better offensive stats if they played in the West or East, but they also would've had worse pitching stats. Is the AL and NL Central pitching best? or is the AL and NL Central offense the worst? Or is it a combination of both? And then to delve down even further, between those two divisions, is one better than the other in offense or defense? Who had the pitching advantage? The White Sox who got to play 10 games against the Indians, Twins, Tigers and Royals or the Reds who got to play 10 games against the Cubs, Cards, Brewers and Pirates?

The fact that so many teams from the same schedule pod are bunched together in both the offensive and defensive stats makes it perfectly clear to me that 3 groups of teams played in 3 different worlds and the stats don't give many answers. Some of these questions that remain, will be answered in the playoffs though, especially for the NL central who play 4 different opponents from the other divisions in the first round.

All true, but NL Central hitters were generally overmatched by the pitching they faced including Reds and Cubs, teams with very good offensive personnel on paper.

Agree that there were distinct scheduling pods and it’s difficult to compare the stats from one to the other. Important point.