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Thread: Offseason plans

  1. #466
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Again, 75, you're using an out-of-date defensive metric to bolster your claim.

    Statcast says Castellanos cost the Reds about five outs with his glove in 2020. He graded out at five outs below average in 2019 too. In 2018, he was 24 outs below average.

    I full well recognize he is among the worst RF defenders in the game. But according to Statcast (the newest metric available to the public), that's not worth more than one full win over the course of the past two years of baseball and about 180 games.

    In short, small potatoes.
    I’m a believer in team speed and defense. But with a good addition at shortstop and Senzel/Goodwin in CF, Reds can be adequate defensively. And as the years continue, with younger players hopefully joining, the Reds should shift into a better team in these areas.

    The Braves and Dodgers - who competed for the WS - each allowed more unearned runs than the Reds. Let’s not exaggerate the issue, sky isn’t falling.

    Keep and build on what they have - unless a golden opportunity arises. On offense, don’t ignore the baseball cards. The numbers on the back covering multiple seasons are likely more representative than 60 games in 2020.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-22-2020 at 07:06 PM.

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  4. #467
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Build on what they have, don’t tear it down. And don’t ignore the baseball cards. The numbers on the back covering multiple seasons are more important than 60 games in 2020.
    I suspect this is their plan, fwiw.

    I doubt they re-sign Bauer, but am hopeful they'll spend $12 - $18M on a replacement arm and some other help.

    Honestly, I'm really unsure what else they'll do.

    There's not much to trade that's expensive and attractive. Everyone they have has some warts.

    (This isn't to say they're bad-- just lots of questions.)

  5. #468
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I suspect this is their plan, fwiw.

    I doubt they re-sign Bauer, but am hopeful they'll spend $12 - $18M on a replacement arm and some other help.

    Honestly, I'm really unsure what else they'll do.

    There's not much to trade that's expensive and attractive. Everyone they have has some warts.

    (This isn't to say they're bad-- just lots of questions.)
    I expect a new shortstop of some stature. Maybe Andrelton Simmons. I expect one more starting pitcher, how good, who knows, probably to replace Bauer.

    Other than that, it’ll probably be bench and bullpen additions/changes. Maybe a good platoon with Shogo.

    I’m fine with it. And if they can do something larger that’s helpful, great.

    With the recent team emphasis on pitching and about five middle-of-the order hitters, I can live with targeted changes this off-season.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-22-2020 at 07:20 PM.

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  7. #469
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Again, 75, you're using an out-of-date defensive metric to bolster your claim.

    Statcast says Castellanos cost the Reds about five outs with his glove in 2020. He graded out at five outs below average in 2019 too. In 2018, he was 24 outs below average.

    I full well recognize he is among the worst RF defenders in the game. But according to Statcast (the newest metric available to the public), that's not worth more than one full win over the course of the past two years of baseball and about 180 games.

    In short, small potatoes.
    Any metric that tells me that the worst outfield defender impacts less than a win over more than a season doesn’t pass the smell test imo
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Sheed View Post
    When it comes to crow, I'd like nothing more than to eat Dick's all season long and into the postseason.

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  9. #470
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Any metric that tells me that the worst outfield defender impacts less than a win over more than a season doesn’t pass the smell test imo
    Castellanos was nearly three wins below average three years ago. That would be an example of "the worst."

    Since then, he's become merely "one of the worst right fielders" rather than the absolute worst defender in the game.

    As to the algorithms, I don't know how to explain it. I'm certainly not smart enough to figure out the math. Here's the page with a neat explanation here on runs prevented. I suspect that extra outs don't lead to runs as much as we might think.

  10. #471
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Castellanos was nearly three wins below average three years ago. That would be an example of "the worst."

    Since then, he's become merely "one of the worst right fielders" rather than the absolute worst defender in the game.

    As to the algorithms, I don't know how to explain it. I'm certainly not smart enough to figure out the math. Here's the page with a neat explanation here on runs prevented. I suspect that extra outs don't lead to runs as much as we might think.
    I’m not one for dumping any of our hitters tbh, and I’m also not a math genius either. I do agree with the others though that said Castellanos and Winker can’t be in the same outfield going forward. I feel like there would be a cumulative effect that might not be immediately obvious in the numbers from all the outs lost having them both in LF and RF at the same time.

    I think the ideal defensive alignment is one of Winker/Castellanos at first base (probably Castellanos given his IF experience) the other in the outfield, and Votto at DH.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Sheed View Post
    When it comes to crow, I'd like nothing more than to eat Dick's all season long and into the postseason.

  11. #472
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Again, 75, you're using an out-of-date defensive metric to bolster your claim.

    Statcast says Castellanos cost the Reds about five outs with his glove in 2020. He graded out at five outs below average in 2019 too. In 2018, he was 24 outs below average.

    I full well recognize he is among the worst RF defenders in the game. But according to Statcast (the newest metric available to the public), that's not worth more than one full win over the course of the past two years of baseball and about 180 games.

    In short, small potatoes.
    Statcast is limited in what it covers defensively. It doesn’t include arm, for instance. UZR covers much more than just which balls a player gets to.

    No one in the MLB stat world is using that statcast number and using it to calculate how many runs or wins a players cost a team, because they know it’s limited.

    However, if we did, Cast cost 5 outs in a 60 game season, which would be 15 outs in a full season. That’s close to 1.5 wins that Cast is costing the Reds with just one part of his defense. And in 2018, he was costing the Reds over 2 wins.

    Not small potatoes, and about what I said was costing on defense.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  12. #473
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    I think the ideal defensive alignment is one of Winker/Castellanos at first base (probably Castellanos given his IF experience) the other in the outfield, and Votto at DH.
    I still can't get over the fact you think Winker (a bad outfielder who has never played 1B as a pro) is going to make a better defender at 1B than Votto...

  13. #474
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    I still can't get over the fact you think Winker (a bad outfielder who has never played 1B as a pro) is going to make a better defender at 1B than Votto...
    I mean I don’t necessarily think that the things that translate to Winker being a bad OF would make him a bad 1B. There have been plenty of guys that have been bad outfielders who have made the transition to being perfectly acceptable first baseman. His primary issue out there I think is range and reading fly balls which would be mitigated almost entirely theoretically by moving to a much easier position.

    My preference would be to move Castellanos there anyway, but I don’t think Winker would automatically be awful there.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Sheed View Post
    When it comes to crow, I'd like nothing more than to eat Dick's all season long and into the postseason.

  14. #475
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    Re: Offseason plans

    On Votto, I’m kind of split between thinking his defensive issues are overblown and seeing some of the metrics that rate him as one of the worst fielders at 1B if not the whole sport. I think it seems like he hits much better when he’s DHing at this point and hitting is all he has to focus on.

    And Votto not playing the field seemingly gives us a leg up on re-signing Bauer, according to certain posters here that definitely aren’t Trevor Bauer himself.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Sheed View Post
    When it comes to crow, I'd like nothing more than to eat Dick's all season long and into the postseason.

  15. #476
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    No one in the MLB stat world is using that statcast number and using it to calculate how many runs or wins a players cost a team, because they know it’s limited.
    So? ESPN and Fangraphs use fielding percentage too.

  16. #477
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Just saw Wongs option not picked up by the Redbirds. He’d be an interesting target. Better D. Speed. Likely 350 obp.

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