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Thread: Offseason plans

  1. #421
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Why?
    Because the pitcher is more important and if a guy, for whatever reason, performs better with a certain catcher, I don't break that up based on what hand the catcher hits with. Castillo was obviously way better last year with Casali. This year he needs to step forward and fill Bauer's shoes. I don't rock the boat there and let him do it. They may be able to rotate the others based on certain match-ups, but platoon advantage at the plate is way down the list of considerations.

    I'm also happy to remove a lefty bat from the line-up. This shift killed the Reds. Winker, Moose and Votto are probably in there (though Votto sitting against lefties wouldn't be all bad), but Barnhart isn't a must have, and I think Casali is a better defender. Barnhart has a better arm, but that is very secondary when nit comes to Catcher defense. IMO.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-18-2020 at 09:14 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH


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  3. #422
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Casali is better, cheaper and has an extra year of control. It’s a no-brainer.

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  5. #423
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    The catcher shouldn't be platooning based on the hand they hit with. They should be sharing the load based on who is pitching for the Reds. Casali should always catch Castillo for example. Otherwise, I agree the offense will be a question mark. It is anyway. Upside is way higher with Stephenson.
    Dusty Baker did that with his catchers when he was managing the Reds, and he was crucified for it.
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  6. #424
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    Casali is better, cheaper and has an extra year of control. It’s a no-brainer.
    Casali is sell high and you get a good return.

    Barnhart is a sell low and you get a weak return.

    Casali is a bit cheaper but will get a large raise as an Arbitration 3 player.

    Reds can control each through 2022 although the team option on Barnhart is at a higher price level.

    Casali may be a candidate for regression as his K rate has risen to above 30%.

    Casali hit LHP well last year, but don’t you want Tyler Stephenson getting those chances?

    I hope the Reds treat it as a “brainer” and consider the market for each and all the factors.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-18-2020 at 11:44 PM.

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  8. #425
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Casali is sell high and you get a good return.

    Barnhart is a sell low and you get a weak return.

    Casali is a bit cheaper but will get a large raise as an Arbitration 3 player.

    Reds can control each through 2022 although the team option on Barnhart is at a higher price level.

    Casali may be a candidate for regression as his K rate has risen to above 30%.

    Casali hit LHP well last year, but don’t you want Tyler Stephenson getting those chances?

    I hope the Reds treat it as a “brainer” and consider the market for each and all the factors.
    I don't think the return is going to be substantially different. At best you get a bench player or a reliever. More likely it's a middling prospect or two. Keep the guy you think is best for the team. Casali hits better and the team's top returning talent, Luis Castillo, performs better when Casali is back there. It should be a "brainer" and that means more than just which side of the plate they hit from.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  9. #426
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I don't think the return is going to be substantially different. At best you get a bench player or a reliever. More likely it's a middling prospect or two. Keep the guy you think is best for the team. Casali hits better and the team's top returning talent, Luis Castillo, performs better when Casali is back there. It should be a "brainer" and that means more than just which side of the plate they hit from.
    Can’t have it both ways.

    If Casali is so much better, cheaper, controllable, he brings a bigger return.

    Talking second string catchers, take the bigger return. Tyler is your main catcher in either event.

    That’s how you take advantage of value and build a team. Not by being dazzled by a two month part-time hitting performance.

    As for pitchers liking him, I’m sure many like Barnhart as well or better.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-19-2020 at 09:18 AM.

  10. #427
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Can’t have it both ways.

    If Casali is so much better, cheaper, controllable, he brings a bigger return.

    Talking second string catchers, take the bigger return.

    That’s how you take advantage of value.
    Or you don't overthink it and keep the better player.

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  12. #428
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Speaking of Castillo, he still has well recognized upside that will begin to dissipate if he continues having similar mixed result seasons. Wouldn't it be smart to see what he could bring in a trade? I'm not saying we announce he is available but to quietly introduce some trade ideas to other teams with him (and Casali if it fits) included... Is there a Reds player with more acknowledged upside on the roster?

  13. #429
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by wally post View Post
    Speaking of Castillo, he still has well recognized upside that will begin to dissipate if he continues having similar mixed result seasons. Wouldn't it be smart to see what he could bring in a trade? I'm not saying we announce he is available but to quietly introduce some trade ideas to other teams with him (and Casali if it fits) included... Is there a Reds player with more acknowledged upside on the roster?
    I promise I am not being a homer...I know the Reds need some major improvements to become a truly good team. Everything and everybody isn't great.

    But I am not seeing this one either. He has 14th best ERA among all major league starters over the last two seasons. Yes, that's better than Bauer. Can we define "mixed" results?

    The Reds have some truly mediocre players on the roster, and some other players that are decent, but don't seem to fit right.

    The problem isn't with the Suarez's or the Castillo's...it's the Galvis's, Farmer's, Barnhart's, Jones's, Davidson's, etc of the world that is their problem. Guys with talent that haven't put it together yet (Shogo, Senzel, etc) also need to get it together if the team is going to take a step forward.

    I know you have to give something up to get something in trade, but I am not really understanding the urge to trade the handful of probable bright spots away unless you are wanting to punt 2021 in favor of players who might help at some point in the future.
    Last edited by CaiGuy; 10-19-2020 at 09:54 AM.

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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Or you don't overthink it and keep the better player.
    Only those who oppose ideas call them overthinking. Others call these ideas strategic and forward-looking.

    The advanced teams, like the Rays, have succeeded by thinking critically about their players and roster. They aren’t tied to conventional wisdom.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-19-2020 at 11:05 AM.

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  17. #431
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Basing it on all aspects is a lot different then keeping Barnhart because he's left handed which seems to be the main reason people want him over Casali.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  18. #432
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Basing it on all aspects is a lot different then keeping Barnhart because he's left handed which seems to be the main reason people want him over Casali.
    Nope. Main reason to trade Casali is (a) Stephenson should be starter and (b) Casali is “sell high”

    As for handedness - Casali’s edge over Barnhart is against LHP. But that should be Tyler’s domain. Sitting Tyler - a RH power guy - against LHP would prevent him from reaching his potential.

    That’s how handedness plays into this.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-19-2020 at 01:35 PM.

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  20. #433
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Wrong. The main reason to trade Casali is that (a) Stephenson should be the starter and (b) Casali is “sell high” for a bigger return.

    As for handedness - Casali’s edge over Barnhart is against LHP. But that should be Tyler’s domain. Sitting Tyler - a RH power guy - against LHP would be absurd and prevent him from reaching his potential.

    That’s how handedness plays into this.
    And, as stated earlier, basing catching PT based on the hand they hit with isn't the right way a tandem should work. Defensive match-ups should play a bigger role. Which pitchers work better with which guys? Do we need a vet with a young pitcher? Does the other team's approach effect which catcher should play? Do they run a lot? Do they bunt? Which guys are better to defend those situations? etc. The PT should probably be 60 to 65% to Stephenson and 35 to 40% to the other guy. But simply dividing it by handedness isn't the right way (which I think Bell will do which makes Barnhart the primary guy and not Stephenson eliminating any upside that Stephenson might provide).

    Another consideration is money. My sense is that Casali will make less than Barnhart's current deal and the Reds need to save their pennies to address other needs. If the thinking is that Casali will get such a large reward in arb that he'll cost more than Barnhart, that changes the equation. Another consideration is Casali's history with Derek Johnson. If you buy into Johnson, you probably need to buy into Casali as well.

    The return in trade isn't going to change the organization much. They could get a big league player who is priced about the same (which means that player won't really address any particular needs) or they could get some team's prospect that isn't among their best prospects but is good enough to be more than just an organizational guy. The big return here is freeing up PT for Stephenson and money to be put towards other needs.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  21. #434
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    And, as stated earlier, basing catching PT based on the hand they hit with isn't the right way a tandem should work. Defensive match-ups should play a bigger role. Which pitchers work better with which guys? Do we need a vet with a young pitcher? Does the other team's approach effect which catcher should play? Do they run a lot? Do they bunt? Which guys are better to defend those situations? etc. The PT should probably be 60 to 65% to Stephenson and 35 to 40% to the other guy. But simply dividing it by handedness isn't the right way (which I think Bell will do which makes Barnhart the primary guy and not Stephenson eliminating any upside that Stephenson might provide).

    Another consideration is money. My sense is that Casali will make less than Barnhart's current deal and the Reds need to save their pennies to address other needs. If the thinking is that Casali will get such a large reward in arb that he'll cost more than Barnhart, that changes the equation. Another consideration is Casali's history with Derek Johnson. If you buy into Johnson, you probably need to buy into Casali as well.

    The return in trade isn't going to change the organization much. They could get a big league player who is priced about the same (which means that player won't really address any particular needs) or they could get some team's prospect that isn't among their best prospects but is good enough to be more than just an organizational guy. The big return here is freeing up PT for Stephenson and money to be put towards other needs.
    1. Nobody is simply relying on handedness. But it’s a factor as I’ve explained. The structure should allow Tyler to hit against most LHP.

    2. The Reds have many important pitchers. You’ve made no showing that Casali is universally preferred.

    3. Neither of these guys will earn $5 million. The money isn’t much factor, except Casali’s salary will be in the hands of arbitrators.

    4. The return for each is to be determined. But Casali is the one who had the better overall offensive numbers.

    5. I doubt very seriously that Derreck Johnson is requiring Casali. Maybe DJ loves Barnhart. All speculation.

    The Reds should go to market and see what each guy brings. They should take the best deal. My guess is that the player requested will be Casali, but it’s a guess.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-19-2020 at 01:49 PM.

  22. #435
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    1. Nobody is simply relying on handedness. But it’s a factor as I’ve explained. The structure should allow Tyler to hit against most LHP.

    2. The Reds have many important pitchers. You’ve made no showing that Casali is universally preferred.

    3. Neither of these guys will earn $5 million. The money isn’t much factor, except Casali’s salary will be in the hands of arbitrators.

    4. The return for each is to be determined. But Casali is the one who had the better overall offensive numbers.

    5. I doubt very seriously that Derreck Johnson is requiring Casali. Maybe DJ loves Barnhart. All speculation.

    The Reds should go to market and see what each guy brings. They should take the best deal. My guess is that the player requested will be Casali, but it’s a guess.
    I'm for that, but best deal includes all those factors. If the return is the same, then the guy they trade should be based on other factor, but sure, if Casali brings back atop prospect or a number 3 starter, keep Barnhart. But if we're talking the difference between some team's number 24 propspect or some team's 26 prospect, I'd say the return is the least important factor.

    I want Stephenson to be the primary catcher next year. For the last few years, it's been Barnhart. Keeping Barnhart around seems like it's making Stephenson a back-up. I'd just keep them both and leave Stephenson in AAA if that's the case (or I'd deal Stephenson, because he'd bring a bigger return than the other two combined).
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH


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