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Thread: Offseason plans

  1. #451
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Revering4Blue View Post
    No, I’m assuming Nick C. doesn’t opt out and Votto’s defense continues to decline, precipitating a full time move to DH for Votto during Nick C’s tenure with the team.
    Defense is extremely overrated, in that case.

    We're talking two to four outs (literally, in the case of this past season) between average and below.

    I can live with one or two balls dropping in front of a fielder or missed swipes at a ball in the dirt if the player can OPS in the 850 - 900 range.

    Castellanos can do that. Winker too.

    No other Cincinnati OF has a prayer of doing it.


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  3. #452
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Defense is extremely overrated, in that case.

    We're talking two to four outs (literally, in the case of this past season) between average and below.

    I can live with one or two balls dropping in front of a fielder or missed swipes at a ball in the dirt if the player can OPS in the 850 - 900 range.

    Castellanos can do that. Winker too.

    No other Cincinnati OF has a prayer of doing it.
    According to Fangraphs, Castellanos’s defense costs between 1 and 2 wins a season. It’s rather meaningful.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  4. #453
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    According to Fangraphs, Castellanos’s defense costs between 1 and 2 wins a season. It’s rather meaningful.
    Depends on if you trust Fangraphs' defensive metrics. Statcast has the latest numbers and more up-to-date tech. That's my preferred metric.

    But to each their own, I suppose.

  5. #454
    Member redsfanmia's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    According to Fangraphs, Castellanos’s defense costs between 1 and 2 wins a season. It’s rather meaningful.
    What about Votto’s defense? I’m curious. I really hope Nick focuses a bit more on defense, it at least makes the games more palatable.
    When I see the 2016 Reds, I see a 100 loss team and no direction.

  6. #455
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Depends on if you trust Fangraphs' defensive metrics. Statcast has the latest numbers and more up-to-date tech. That's my preferred metric.

    But to each their own, I suppose.
    Statcast just tells you how many plays a player made. Fangraphs uses a formula to estimate how many runs (wins) that player was responsible for with his defense.

    For the record, according to Statcast, Castellanos, in 2020, ranked 115 out of all MLB outfielders on defense. Winker ranked 120.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  7. #456
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by redsfanmia View Post
    What about Votto’s defense? I’m curious. I really hope Nick focuses a bit more on defense, it at least makes the games more palatable.
    Fangraghs had Votto with -6.6 runs on defense, or around negative half a win. Expand that to a full season, and it’s negative 1.5 wins.

    DRS had him with -7 plays in 2020, which translates to over -20 for a full season, which is about double what the worst defensive 1B produces normally.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  8. #457
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Statcast just tells you how many plays a player made. Fangraphs uses a formula to estimate how many runs (wins) that player was responsible for with his defense.

    For the record, according to Statcast, Castellanos, in 2020, ranked 115 out of all MLB outfielders on defense. Winker ranked 120.
    And again, despite being among the worst OF in all of baseball, they were still relatively benign in terms of what it cost the team. (According to the Outs Above Average stat at StatCast.)

    What Winker and/or Castellanos cost the team defensively (and admittedly, they do), IMO is more than offset by what they (nearly alone) can provide on offense.

  9. #458
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    And again, despite being among the worst OF in all of baseball, they were still relatively benign in terms of what it cost the team. (According to the Outs Above Average stat at StatCast.)

    What Winker and/or Castellanos cost the team defensively (and admittedly, they do), IMO is more than offset by what they (nearly alone) can provide on offense.
    Yes, Winker and Cast are provide positive production overall. But that’s a low bar. Their poor defense is not benign. It costs the Reds wins. On average, according to UZR/150, Winker’s defense costs the Reds around 1 win a season, Castellanos around 3 wins a season.

    So each are around 2-3 wins players overall. Not bad, not great either. Because of their defense.

    So maybe it’s not that great to have both of them on the roster. Maybe look into upgrading one of them for a player that can hit and not cost the team on defense. It’s worth pursuing, imo.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  10. #459
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    Re: Offseason plans

    The problem isn't one guy like winker or Castellanos, it's that it's an entire team full of those guys. Votto, Suarez, Moose, Winker, Castellanos...all basically some power, low BA, slow/poor baserunners who can't play defense, at least not at the positions where they are stationed now. It makes for a poor team.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  12. #460
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    The problem isn't one guy like winker or Castellanos, it's that it's an entire team full of those guys. Votto, Suarez, Moose, Winker, Castellanos...all basically some power, low BA, slow/poor baserunners who can't play defense, at least not at the positions where they are stationed now. It makes for a poor team.
    According to this, Reds main guys sound like terrible players. They can do nothing right except “some power.”

    Such an even handed analysis.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-22-2020 at 12:24 AM.

  13. #461
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    According to this, Reds main guys sound like terrible players. They can do nothing right except “some power.”

    Such an even handed analysis.
    Isn't that true? The highest BA was .255. Not one has even average speed. The DRS for every one of them is negative. Joey Votto used to be better than this, but he's going to turn 38 next season and he isn't that any more. Jesse winker gets on base, but the swinging from one knee and long periods of doing nothing need to stop and other than at the plate, he's a negative. Castellanos and Moose are low walk guys who hit HR and little else and both are playing out of position. Suarez has the potential to be better, but his speed and defense have been declining the last two or three years as he's bulked up and he's been striking out about 29% of the time over the last two seasons.

    These are the team's best players and there isn't one all star or .900 OPS in the bunch. After them, we get to the guys who aren't as good.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-22-2020 at 05:19 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  15. #462
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Isn't that true? The highest BA was .255. Not one has even average speed. The DRS for every one of them is negative. Joey Votto used to be better than this, but he's going to turn 38 next season and he isn't that any more. Jesse winker gets on base, but the swinging from one knee and long periods of doing nothing need to stop and other than at the plate, he's a negative. Castellanos and Moose are low walk guys who hit HR and little else and both are playing out of position. Suarez has the potential to be better, but his speed and defense have been declining the last two or three years as he's bulked up and he's been striking out about 29% of the time over the last two seasons.

    These are the team's best players and there isn't one all star or .900 OPS in the bunch. After them, we get to the guys who aren't as good.
    No, it’s not true. The Reds top five hitters averaged over .800 OPS. Winker hit .932. Suarez and Castellanos were on track for 40 homers. Votto and Moustakas hit .800 (one point less for Mike).

    These are all high level hitters. Winker is a DH, he has no defensive responsibility. Moose and Suarez are adequate defensively. Votto and Cast were subpar defensively but a team can get by with that.

    Reds hit .715 OPS because of Shogo, Senzel, shortstop, Barnhart starting, and bench. I wouldn’t be so quick to dump the good because they aren’t perfect, especially this year when teams won’t readily add salary.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-22-2020 at 08:56 AM.

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  17. #463
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Isn't that true? The highest BA was .255. Not one has even average speed. The DRS for every one of them is negative. Joey Votto used to be better than this, but he's going to turn 38 next season and he isn't that any more. Jesse winker gets on base, but the swinging from one knee and long periods of doing nothing need to stop and other than at the plate, he's a negative. Castellanos and Moose are low walk guys who hit HR and little else and both are playing out of position. Suarez has the potential to be better, but his speed and defense have been declining the last two or three years as he's bulked up and he's been striking out about 29% of the time over the last two seasons.

    These are the team's best players and there isn't one all star or .900 OPS in the bunch. After them, we get to the guys who aren't as good.
    I hear you, but at least there is some upside there. Winker was over .900 this year. He's a career .280 hitter. Castellanos was a better than .290 hitter over the previous two full seasons. Suarez was a .277 hitter with over a .900 OPS during the same two seasons. Senzel well over .300 in the minors, though that may never materialize. Same with Shogo and his .300+ Japenese League career number...probably won't reach that at his age in the US, but he could hit for a decent average next year. Moustakas is exactly as you describe, and you can't assume much from Votto at this point. But there are a few guys in place that usually hit for both average and power.

    I do hope they make some improvements, but I am curious to see what these guys could put together over a full season. Hard to compare numbers over a 60 game season with the regional "bubbles" that teams played in exclusively.

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  19. #464
    Member blumj's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Maybe a bad defensive OF could be turned into a good defensive 1B that could be replaced in the OF with a prospect they already have when Votto DHs.
    "Reality tells us there are no guarantees. Except that some day Jon Lester will be on that list of 100-game winners." - Peter Gammons

  20. #465
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Offseason plans

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Yes, Winker and Cast are provide positive production overall. But that’s a low bar. Their poor defense is not benign. It costs the Reds wins. On average, according to UZR/150, Winker’s defense costs the Reds around 1 win a season, Castellanos around 3 wins a season.

    So each are around 2-3 wins players overall. Not bad, not great either. Because of their defense.

    So maybe it’s not that great to have both of them on the roster. Maybe look into upgrading one of them for a player that can hit and not cost the team on defense. It’s worth pursuing, imo.
    Again, 75, you're using an out-of-date defensive metric to bolster your claim.

    Statcast says Castellanos cost the Reds about five outs with his glove in 2020. He graded out at five outs below average in 2019 too. In 2018, he was 24 outs below average.

    I full well recognize he is among the worst RF defenders in the game. But according to Statcast (the newest metric available to the public), that's not worth more than one full win over the course of the past two years of baseball and about 180 games.

    In short, small potatoes.

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