Offseason plans

[Old school 1983]

So you want to trade Cast and Suarez? I think they need a lot of change, but even I think that's too much. Certainly a deal built around Pache and a couple of others is worth thinking about, but it's too iffy for me.

Suarez could bring back more. I think you have to keep one around. So I’d trade Suarez. Would bring back more.

[Kc61]

Mth’s concept of multiple moves could result in a better all around team.

But I see great “execution risk.” Trade Suarez, he goes off and hits 50 homers some place. Sell off Cast and you get a weak return and wind up with a so-so free agent signing.

After a bad offensive year, there’s a risk that Reds’ hitters are less marketable, not bringing great return.

Instead, put Didi Gregorius and Tyler Stephenson in the lineup. Add a decent masher of LHP as a platoon. And see what you’ve got.

It still wouldn’t be the most athletic group. But it’s an achievable result and might be another step forward.

[Old school 1983]

Mth’s concept of multiple moves could result in a better all around team.

But I see great “execution risk.” Trade Suarez, he goes off and hits 50 homers some place. Sell off Cast and you get a weak return and wind up with a so-so free agent signing.

After a bad offensive year, there’s a risk that Reds’ hitters are less marketable, not bringing great return.

Instead, put Didi Gregorius and Tyler Stephenson in the lineup. Add a decent masher of LHP as a platoon. And see what you’ve got.

It still wouldn’t be the most athletic group. But it’s an achievable result and might be another step forward.

I could get on board with that too. Barnhart needs dumped.

[757690]

The question with Suarez is his shoulder.

His production was down in 2020 and it wasn’t luck, his xBA was down to .215, from a career .250 (.280 in 2019). It seems his shoulder wasn’t fully healed. The question is if it will ever fully heal. Is this the new normal for Suarez or will he bounce back?

[mth123]

Mth’s concept of multiple moves could result in a better all around team.

But I see great “execution risk.” Trade Suarez, he goes off and hits 50 homers some place. Sell off Cast and you get a weak return and wind up with a so-so free agent signing.

After a bad offensive year, there’s a risk that Reds’ hitters are less marketable, not bringing great return.

Instead, put Didi Gregorius and Tyler Stephenson in the lineup. Add a decent masher of LHP as a platoon. And see what you’ve got.

It still wouldn’t be the most athletic group. But it’s an achievable result and might be another step forward.

It's not really that many moves, It's basically moving Castellanos and Barnhart and getting new middle of the diamond guys. There would be some position changes, but Moose to 3B would just be moving him back to where he's been a fine defender his whole career. Senzel to 2B would be moving him back to the IF where he played quite well most of his life. Winker to LF is his position before the DH. Votto to DH isn't a defensive risk at all (and can't happen soon enough IMO). Shogo has been a CF his whole career. Stephenson is promoted to catcher. That's not a change. Use Cast's money to sign a competent RF who can hit, use the Galvis, Barnhart, Disco money to sign the SS and use the Bauer money to cover the arbitration raises and some low risk pitching adds. It's basically exchanging Castellanos for a better fit in RF and moving guys back to their more familiar spots. Suarez to 1B would be moving down the defensive spectrum, but he needs to IMO. The defense was horrid in 2020. Moving guys who were out of position back where they belong doesn't seem that risky to me.

[*BaseClogger*]

I'm not convinced Stephenson is a clear-cut upgrade over Barnhart vRHP to begin 2021. Stephenson hasn't played in AAA and his offensive numbers are not eyepopping...

[Kc61]

It's not really that many moves, It's basically moving Castellanos and Barnhart and getting new middle of the diamond guys. There would be some position changes, but Moose to 3B would just be moving him back to where he's been a fine defender his whole career. Senzel to 2B would be moving him back to the IF where he played quite well most of his life. Winker to LF is his position before the DH. Votto to DH isn't a defensive risk at all (and can't happen soon enough IMO). Shogo has been a CF his whole career. Stephenson is promoted to catcher. That's not a change. Use Cast's money to sign a competent RF who can hit, use the Galvis, Barnhart, Disco money to sign the SS and use the Bauer money to cover the arbitration raises and some low risk pitching adds. It's basically exchanging Castellanos for a better fit in RF and moving guys back to their more familiar spots. Suarez to 1B would be moving down the defensive spectrum, but he needs to IMO. The defense was horrid in 2020. Moving guys who were out of position back where they belong doesn't seem that risky to me.

Actually, as I read it, you’re changing every position on the field, including DH.

1B - Suarez for Votto
2B - Senzel for Moose
3B. -Moose for Suarez
SS - ??? for Galvis
LF - Winker for Shogo
CF - Shogo for Senzel
RF - ??? For Cast
C - Stephenson for Barnhart
DH - Votto for Winker

Even your modified suggestion, keeping Suarez at third, changes 8 of 9 spots.

[scotly50]

Sorry to nit-pick, but the middle of the order isn’t the problem I see.

Cast, Votto, Suarez, Moose, Winker is a pretty solid group based on their career numbers.

To me, it’s the surrounding guys. Senzel has to end his apprenticeship, stay on the field, and perform. Shogo has to be ready from day 1 with a good platoon partner. Reds need a true starting shortstop. And catcher, with Ty Stephenson, has to produce more.

That excludes the bench which also needs more offensive contributors.

That’s why I’m pretty optimistic. The needs seem obtainable (if that’s a word). I don’t think the main hitters will be the problem over the course of a full season.

The Braves came close last year with Freeman and Donaldson at the three and four. This year they have Ozuna and DeArnould.

The last time the Reds came close was 2013 and they did as you would offer and tweaked with Choo, and well you know the rest. I hope the Reds Mgmt have learned from the past.

[Kc61]

The Braves came close last year with Freeman and Donaldson at the three and four. This year they have Ozuna and DeArnould.

The last time the Reds came close was 2013 and they did as you would offer and tweaked with Choo, and well you know the rest. I hope the Reds Mgmt have learned from the past.

Well, to each his own, but if you add some more hitting at shortstop, catcher and a couple of backup positions, I think this offense can work. Especially if Senzel stays healthy and gets it going. You obviously differ, we’ll see how they approach it this off-season.

[mth123]

Actually, as I read it, you’re changing every position on the field, including DH.

1B - Suarez for Votto
2B - Senzel for Moose
3B. -Moose for Suarez
SS - ??? for Galvis
LF - Winker for Shogo
CF - Shogo for Senzel
RF - ??? For Cast
C - Stephenson for Barnhart
DH - Votto for Winker

Even your modified suggestion, keeping Suarez at third, changes 8 of 9 spots.

Not really. C was happening anyway. Moose, Senzel and Shogo are just returning to long time positions we they are fine defensively. Moose especially was clearly out of position last year. Votto is moving to DH as a 38 year old. Winker, while not a good defender, is returning to his former position. Upgrading RF. Suarez is the only guy moving and he's moving down the defensive spectrum as his play suggests he should. I just don't think sticking with these gys where they played in 2020 is going to be successful,

[mth123]

I'm not convinced Stephenson is a clear-cut upgrade over Barnhart vRHP to begin 2021. Stephenson hasn't played in AAA and his offensive numbers are not eyepopping...

The catcher shouldn't be platooning based on the hand they hit with. They should be sharing the load based on who is pitching for the Reds. Casali should always catch Castillo for example. Otherwise, I agree the offense will be a question mark. It is anyway. Upside is way higher with Stephenson.

[Kc61]

Not really. C was happening anyway. Moose, Senzel and Shogo are just returning to long time positions we they are fine defensively. Moose especially was clearly out of position last year. Votto is moving to DH as a 38 year old. Winker, while not a good defender, is returning to his former position. Upgrading RF. Suarez is the only guy moving and he's moving down the defensive spectrum as his play suggests he should. I just don't think sticking with these gys where they played in 2020 is going to be successful,

Senzel has never been a full time second baseman. Shogo got older so he moved out of CF. Suarez has never played first. Winker-Shogo in LF and CF is a defensive downgrade.

It’s a lot of movement for not that much gain. But we’ll see what they do. Maybe Castellanos will opt out and start your plan in motion.

[mth123]

Senzel has never been a full time second baseman. Shogo got older so he moved out of CF. Suarez has never played first. Winker-Shogo in LF and CF is a defensive downgrade.

It’s a lot of movement for not much gain.

It's a huge gain in the IF where it matters more. I don't think Shogo is a big drop in CF and Senzel played 2B and IF throughout his career in College and the minor leagues. A new RF will do wonders for the OF. Agree it's a downgrade in LF, but LF is the least important position on the field. If I have to play a bad glove somewhere, and the Reds do unless they start over completely, LF is the place where I want him and it would be the only spot on the field where the defense is poor IMO. I'd bet Suarez will be a great 1B.

There were 5 positions in 2020 with poor or worse defense.

[*BaseClogger*]

The catcher shouldn't be platooning based on the hand they hit with. They should be sharing the load based on who is pitching for the Reds. Casali should always catch Castillo for example. Otherwise, I agree the offense will be a question mark. It is anyway. Upside is way higher with Stephenson.

Why?

[Mitri]

I have warmed to the Votto to DH/Senzel to IF realignment. The rest is tricky - making room in the OF for better defenders, where to place Moose, figuring out SS - but I would really like to see the Reds make these moves.