2020-2021 Off-Season News, Notes and Discussion

[mth123]

They only paid out 37% of the $140 Million payroll. How did they even spend $100 Million let alone have $100 Million more in expenses than the Revenue they did get? I know there is health insurance and other benefits and they paid some minoir leaguers a stipend, but $100 million seems like it's got some write-offs and other stuff bumping up that loss.

I could see how they lost $100 Million in revenue because of the lost games and the lack of fans, but they also had lower expenses. I'm guessing lost revenue is what they are referring to or loss against the profit they may have had budgeted over a full season, but an outright $100 Million loss doesn't seem possible without some accounting tricks.

[CaiGuy]

It also depends on what “lost” means.

If the Reds normally make $250 profit every season, and last year made $150M profit, they can claim they “lost” $100M.

The Reds are estimated to take in about $267 million in total revenue (not profit) per year, so he almost certainly means 100 million in lost revenue.

So the lost profit would be the difference between that $100 million in revenue and whatever they didn't spend that they would have otherwise. Of course, a lot of that came out of the players' salaries, as they only make about 40% of their normal salary. They certainly cut costs many other places as well.

They are certainly planning on lost revenue next year, which means lowering costs to remain solvent. I don't know why that is controversial, when it's what businesses must do to survive. You can't stay open very long when you spend more than you bring in. Even Bob isn't rich enough to float the Reds for a long time, and that's not exactly a sustainable business model.

I work in the trade show industry. The company I work for hasn't had any revenue since March. Most of my coworkers are furloughed and I have had my wage and hours both cut. My boss is more wealthy than I am, so could he afford to pay me full wage out of his pocket? Sure, he probably could if he choose to do so. But he couldn't do it for everyone, and he couldn't do it very long. Could they borrow money to keep everyone on and pay full salaries? Maybe, but at some point they would have to pay that back. It's not (outside of a few programs they tapped into) "free" money. The ROI would have to be there.

[Bourgeois Zee]

They only paid out 37% of the $140 Million payroll. How did they even spend $100 Million let alone have $100 Million more in expenses than the Revenue they did get? I know there is health insurance and other benefits and they paid some minoir leaguers a stipend, but $100 million seems like it's got some write-offs and other stuff bumping up that loss.

I could see how they lost $100 Million in revenue because of the lost games and the lack of fans, but they also had lower expenses. I'm guessing lost revenue is what they are referring to or loss against the profit they may have had budgeted over a full season, but an outright $100 Million loss doesn't seem possible without some accounting tricks.

Until MLB is made to open its books, we'll just have to take their word for it.

Or, y'know, not.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Even Bob isn't rich enough to float the Reds for a long time, and that's not exactly a sustainable business model.

Well, he kinda is that rich.

Especially when considering how much the team is worth.

[JFLegal]

reds picked the wrong offseason to spend by far the most in team history. signed moose and castellanos to the biggest FA contracts in team history (by far) at 4 years, $64M, and also signed shogo for 3 years, $21M.

the reds also still owe votto $82M over the next 3 years combined.

we're screwed. this would be the opportunity to sign good players on the cheap, but the reds are overpaying so many players that they have zero $ to spend.

[Ron Madden]

Jon Morosi @jonmorosi

Catcher Curt Casali is an intriguing option for #Tigers in free agency. Casali, 32, was drafted by Detroit in 2011. He was non-tendered after posting a 126 OPS+ in 31 games for #Reds in 2020. Detroit's catchers ranked 29th in @MLB
in WAR this year, per @fangraphs @MLBNetwork

[UPRedsFan]

I take their letting Bradley go to mean they have found there's no hope of unloading Iglesias's $9.125

Or do they know something about Bradley's arm? He seemed unavailable or just wasn't used for a stint there at the end of the season. I doubt that was by managerial choice.

[757690]

Or do they know something about Bradley's arm? He seemed unavailable or just wasn't used for a stint there at the end of the season. I doubt that was by managerial choice.

I was thinking the same thing. However, with David Bell, it’s hard to know what is behind his choices.

[RED VAN HOT]

Or do they know something about Bradley's arm? He seemed unavailable or just wasn't used for a stint there at the end of the season. I doubt that was by managerial choice.

That also occurred to me. Additionally, even though organizations have some insight into alternate site squads, the average fan does not. We need a minor league season. Perhaps, the Reds are more sanguine about in-house pitching replacements than most of us.

[Kc61]

reds picked the wrong offseason to spend by far the most in team history. signed moose and castellanos to the biggest FA contracts in team history (by far) at 4 years, $64M, and also signed shogo for 3 years, $21M.

the reds also still owe votto $82M over the next 3 years combined.

we're screwed. this would be the opportunity to sign good players on the cheap, but the reds are overpaying so many players that they have zero $ to spend.

This is why, if Reds make a trade, it’s unlikely they trade the most onerous contracts. Nobody will want those.

Suarez, Winker, Gray would seem the most attractive. Maybe Iglesias.

Counter-intuitive to trade reasonable contracts in this situation, but maybe no choice if you want value back.

[Ron Madden]

Feinsand: I know people love to focus on how baseball free agency drags compared to the NBA and NFL, but that’s always going to be the case without a salary cap. I think people are overlooking the pandemic factors this year; it’s not just about how much money teams may have lost, but what their 2021 projected revenues look like. And given the uncertainty in the country, I don’t think they have any idea yet.

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/2020-no...mpression=true

[podgejeff_]

I know it would be selling low, so to speak. But instead of trading Gray, if we needed to shave some money while still maintaining some semblance of contending next year we could trade Suarez's contract and just bring up India (or shift Senzel back to third).

Suarez would be able to bring in a pretty nice haul with that contract.

[Coopdaddy67]

I know it would be selling low, so to speak. But instead of trading Gray, if we needed to shave some money while still maintaining some semblance of contending next year we could trade Suarez's contract and just bring up India (or shift Senzel back to third).

Suarez would be able to bring in a pretty nice haul with that contract.

You won't get any real value until he proves that he's returned to pre-injury form in 2021.

[Kc61]

You won't get any real value until he proves that he's returned to pre-injury form in 2021.

Don’t disagree.

But there’s a problem with every major veteran trade candidate on Reds. Some are too highly paid, especially in this market; some are “sell low” and won’t get full value; some are important players at reasonable prices so keep.

If ownership feels it’s necessary to trade a major contract, it’ll happen, even if imperfect.

[mth123]

Don’t disagree.

But there’s a problem with every major veteran trade candidate on Reds. Some are too highly paid, especially in this market; some are “sell low” and won’t get full value; some are important players at reasonable prices so keep.

If ownership feels it’s necessary to trade a major contract, it’ll happen, even if imperfect.

So if they decide to deal somebody like Casteallanos or Moustakas and toss in some cash with him, that would save as much on the 2021 and 2022 payroll as dealing Gray. I'd be looking to deal those guys first. I don't care about the return. The mix needs changed and getting them out of the way is step 1.