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Thread: Very pessimistic about this organization

  1. #16
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    After another soul-crushing post-season appearance, I actually have a few positive feelings. They were able to put together an elite pitching staff, and that has eluded the organization throughout its history. And if they can do that, they can develop an offense to match. They need to kick acquisitions to the next level. Instead of solid major leaguers coming off a down year, like Castellanos and Moustakis, they need to seal the deal on a bonafide star or two, like Realmuto and Ocuna and even, dare to dream, Lindor. As far as coaching, they need to understand how the shift has disrupted advanced stats like BABIP and how the pitchers have adjusted to the elevate and celebrate launch angle homers. But the team that learns to beat the shift will be the new Moneyball.

    It won’t be easy with the funk surrounding the team right now, but the hardest part is done: building a great pitching staff. Bauer’s not likely to be back, though you never know with that guy, but without the franchise’s first (potential) Cy Young winner, the staff will be merely very, very good.

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  4. #17
    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    The rare times the Reds have been able to get to the post-season they have always had good pitching. It comes down to what Bronson Arroyo said, "The Reds are not able to hit good pitching."
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

  5. #18
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post

    It won’t be easy with the funk surrounding the team right now, but the hardest part is done: building a great pitching staff. Bauer’s not likely to be back, though you never know with that guy, but without the franchise’s first (potential) Cy Young winner, the staff will be merely very, very good.
    ? Without Bauer this staff will merely be very, very good?

  6. #19
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    ? Without Bauer this staff will merely be very, very good?
    Only two aces instead of three, plus considerable depth at young seasoned arms.

  7. #20
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    Only two aces instead of three, plus considerable depth at young seasoned arms.
    I strongly disagree with your opinion on the pitching staff. If Bauer leaves it's a gigantic dinosaur size hole that has to be filled by a competent acquisition, either via FA or trade. If Gray or Castillo were to get injured the season would probably be over. The backend is still extremely suspect, and there isn't any near mlb ready depth.

  8. #21
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    I strongly disagree with your opinion on the pitching staff. If Bauer leaves it's a gigantic dinosaur size hole that has to be filled by a competent acquisition, either via FA or trade. If Gray or Castillo were to get injured the season would probably be over. The backend is still extremely suspect, and there isn't any near mlb ready depth.
    Forget the trade. If the Reds replace Bauer, it would probably have to be through FA. The team simply does not have the horses to trade for a #1 starting pitcher without creating even bigger holes.

    While the staff would be weaker with two aces instead of three, that still won’t be the main problem. They still need to address a stop-gap at SS until Garcia is ready to take over, address the issue of what to do with Votto and his albatross contract, add a decent middle infield utility player, and add an arm or two to the bullpen.
    “I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane

    “We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn

  9. #22
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    ....have they really been good since MLB got rid of the reserve clause in 1975?
    I wouldn't mind a repeat of the 1990s. WS win, playoff series win, 1st in the division 3 times, 2nd in the division twice, best record in baseball in 1994 (...but then, well, baseball), 96 wins in 1999 but somehow didn't make the playoffs. Not a bad decade.
    Last edited by RedsBrick; 10-05-2020 at 10:27 AM.

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  11. #23
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheelhouse View Post
    It’s record is dismal over the past 25 years. Williams just said he expects all the staff back. They set a record for poor offensive performance in the playoffs, after being a high-spending favorite who squeaked in.

    The Reds can no longer be called “a good organization.” They no longer represent the upper end of playing the extraordinary game of baseball. The Reds are “Cincinnati Slow.”
    Regarding being a high-spending favorite, the Reds have increased their budget in recent years, but it looks like their payroll was 17th among 30 teams at the start of 2020: http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm. Just based on spending - not other factors - wouldn't we expect them to be a middle of the pack .500-ish team?

  12. #24
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    Quote Originally Posted by CesarGeronimo View Post
    Regarding being a high-spending favorite, the Reds have increased their budget in recent years, but it looks like their payroll was 17th among 30 teams at the start of 2020: http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm. Just based on spending - not other factors - wouldn't we expect them to be a middle of the pack .500-ish team?
    I think you are right, but one could argue that the Reds came off of 5 years of Tanking and should have a bunch of young, cheap, productive players allowing them to perform above their payroll number. They really don't, and the few they do have (Garrett, Castillo, Winker, Mahle) move into arbitration with its associated pay increases this winter. The Reds really need to retool and move some money to fill holes and offset internal raises.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-05-2020 at 01:47 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  14. #25
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    Forget the trade. If the Reds replace Bauer, it would probably have to be through FA. The team simply does not have the horses to trade for a #1 starting pitcher without creating even bigger holes.

    While the staff would be weaker with two aces instead of three, that still won’t be the main problem. They still need to address a stop-gap at SS until Garcia is ready to take over, address the issue of what to do with Votto and his albatross contract, add a decent middle infield utility player, and add an arm or two to the bullpen.
    I think Bauer is the only surefire ace available on the market. After that you're hoping guys like Robbie Ray and James Paxton can recover what they had.

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  16. #26
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    Franchise is a complete dumpster fire, they did nothing last offseason to change the offense and get players who could get on base. Should have shelved all that money they put into Castellanos and Moustakas and got Mookie Betts

  17. #27
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    Quote Originally Posted by NC-Red View Post
    Franchise is a complete dumpster fire, they did nothing last offseason to change the offense and get players who could get on base. Should have shelved all that money they put into Castellanos and Moustakas and got Mookie Betts
    Lol
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  18. #28
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    Quote Originally Posted by NC-Red View Post
    Franchise is a complete dumpster fire, they did nothing last offseason to change the offense and get players who could get on base. Should have shelved all that money they put into Castellanos and Moustakas and got Mookie Betts
    1) Betts wasn't a free agent
    2) Actually, Shogo had a .357 obp, so yeah, they did get someone to help with that.
    3) They did go out and get players to help with the offense, unfortunately over 60 games the 2 headline players didn't play as well as expected.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  19. #29
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    Man, those two losses to the Braves turned this board from rah-rah to total storm clouds. At least I’m consistent with my doubt. You guys are schizoid.

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  21. #30
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    Re: Very pessimistic about this organization

    The Reds will continue to lose until they replace the 3 and 4 hitters in the line-up with true 3 and 4 hitters. Votto and Suarez are not the answer at those spots in the line-up.


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