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Thread: 2021 Draft Discussion

  1. #61
    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    MLB set the draft at 20 Rounds for 2021. It was the lowest amount they were allowed to under the agreement with players.
    So, looking at the opening day 40 man rosters (and players on 60-day IL and restricted lists)...

    696 of 1,251 players were drafted and signed out of the 1st to 10th rounds (55.6% of all players on 40 man rosters)
    121 of 1,251 players were drafted and signed out of the 11th to 20th rounds (9.7%)
    51 of 1,251 players were drafted and signed out of the 21st to 30th rounds (4.1%)
    20 of 1,251 players were drafted and signed out of the 31st to 40th rounds (1.6%)
    2 of 1,251 players were drafted and signed out of the 41st or later rounds (0.2%)
    17 of 1,251 players failed to be drafted and signed as Non-Drafted Free Agents (1.4%)
    344 of 1,251 players were drafted and signed as INT Free Agents (27.5%)(3/4ths of whom come from D.R. or VEN)

    It's abundantly clear that two things have occurred over the past 20 years or so. A.) Teams are uniformly getting much better at evaluating amateur talent and projecting who will make the bigs, and B.) Draft picks after the 20th round (and more emphatically after the 30th round) were being spent either on true minor league filler (I.E. never making the 40 man roster) or being spent on players who were not signing after being drafted (primarily highschool kids).

    So, for all the doom and gloom that some have expressed on a smaller draft; it certainly appears that it'll have very little impact on future big league talent. Future 40 man roster players are still going to get drafted in the smaller drafts. Some of the minor league filler that was being drafted in later rounds will now be signed as NDFA's. And premium highschool players with full-rides are still well more inclined to take that ride to the collegiate ranks if not drafted in the first 10 rounds or so. In fact, it looks as though it would have impacted only about 73 of the 1,251 players or 5.9%. And for all we know those 73 players may have all been (or most were) huge overslot signees - the Reds very own Sal Romano and Amir Garrett are included in that total. Those players in the new format would have likely just been drafted earlier by the teams that ultimately took them.

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  4. #62
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    MLB did a mock draft. They have Reds taking Jordan Wicks. LHP out of Kansas State. I sense that the list was really just listing the 20 hottest names right now, and not really an attempt to match what clubs would do.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-po...=1619004707578
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  5. #63
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    Benny Montgomery seems like a current Red regime pick-- 70 power and K concerns. Harry Ford-- a prep catcher with some intriguing secondary tools-- is another.

  6. #64
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    I'd like a college hitter. This guy at 13 would be nice

    13) Phillies (Callis): Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston -- Already established as one of college baseball’s better hitters, he’s proving he can hit for power and stay in center field.
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
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  8. #65
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    Sounds like Phil Ervin, I don’t like the idea of drafting small college hitters in first round.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  9. #66
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    I don't knmow anything about these kids, but a college hitter sounds good, but a couple of preferences.

    1. HE's a guy capable of playing in the middle of the diamond somewhere
    2. He's not a guy who should be a DH
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  10. #67
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I don't knmow anything about these kids, but a college hitter sounds good, but a couple of preferences.

    1. HE's a guy capable of playing in the middle of the diamond somewhere
    2. He's not a guy who should be a DH
    This year, I'm okay with drafting a bat-first guy with an eye toward replacing Votto-- if he's clearly the best hitter available.

  11. #68
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    MLB did a mock draft. They have Reds taking Jordan Wicks. LHP out of Kansas State. I sense that the list was really just listing the 20 hottest names right now, and not really an attempt to match what clubs would do.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-po...=1619004707578
    I'm skeptical of Wicks. His changeup is his strength, but the FB is only low 89-92. His other pitches are nothing special. Not sure the collegiate success can transfer to MLB.

  12. #69
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    Reds select Chase Petty RHP NJ HS at #17 in this mock. They also have us selecting Jaden Hill RHP out of LSU at 30.

    James Woods the tall hard hitting lefty out of HS I had mentioned earlier is #31 here and has fallen below our spot in the latest mocks I've seen. I would certainly pick him at #30 if he were still there.

    http://baseballprospectjournal.com/2...ock-draft-3-0/

    BA also just came out with their latest that I don't have access to.
    Last edited by DocRed; 05-05-2021 at 10:53 AM.

  13. #70
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    MLB had another mock draft, in where they have us taking Joe Mack, a prep catcher out of New York. Toolsy (for a catcher) with an above average hit tool and plus arm.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-2021-may-19

  14. #71
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by podgejeff_ View Post
    MLB had another mock draft, in where they have us taking Joe Mack, a prep catcher out of New York. Toolsy (for a catcher) with an above average hit tool and plus arm.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-2021-may-19
    No more catchers please
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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  16. #72
    Member podgejeff_'s Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    No more catchers please
    When you look at the frequency of how we take prep catchers we're about due to take another one.

  17. #73
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    I'd like a college hitter. This guy at 13 would be nice

    13) Phillies (Callis): Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston -- Already established as one of college baseball’s better hitters, he’s proving he can hit for power and stay in center field.
    I doubt he lasts past 10

    - - - Updated - - -

    MLB's latest mock has Leiter and Rocker going 5 and 6...WTF?? They have us taking Joe Mack HS C

  18. #74
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by podgejeff_ View Post
    When you look at the frequency of how we take prep catchers we're about due to take another one.
    Took one last year in the 2nd or 3rd round.

    Your point stands, though.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by DocRed View Post
    I doubt he lasts past 10

    - - - Updated - - -

    MLB's latest mock has Leiter and Rocker going 5 and 6...WTF?? They have us taking Joe Mack HS C
    Leiter and Rocker’s stock has dropped a bit over the past month.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  19. #75
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Draft Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by podgejeff_ View Post
    MLB had another mock draft, in where they have us taking Joe Mack, a prep catcher out of New York. Toolsy (for a catcher) with an above average hit tool and plus arm.

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-2021-may-19
    4 of top 7 are HS shortstops...
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    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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