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Thread: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations

  1. #241
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Just to zero in on one part of this - the Reds are still pretty bad at developing talent though, and I don’t see anything Williams has done to address that. Our most promising player acquired through his tanking efforts is Nick Senzel, who will be 26 next year and still hasn’t been able to be an average major leaguer.
    This is a valid criticism, and my only take is why has the system been this poor at either identifying talent or developing talent?
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

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  4. #242
    Member RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operationss

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I can do funny extrapolated math as well as anyone who is claiming that the 2 games over .500 against the Central Divisions equates to an 84 win season over a full schedule. So over a full season, 6-5 would be closer to say 16 and 13. Replace him with somebody who'd be more like 10 and 19 with this offense and that takes you from 84 wins to 78. Of course they could fix the offense and defense and a lesser pitcher could still be 6-5 or 16 and 13.

    Bauer was probably the best pitcher in baseball this year and went 6-5. Doesn't that tell you all you need to know about the team that was put around him? Changes are needed.
    No. That particular stat tells you nothing.

    Bauer could have just as easily gotten Sonny Gray's run support and the team would have gone 8-3 or 9-2 in his starts with the exact same team, offense included. The team's record is Bauer's starts says absolutely nothing about the team that is said better by their overall performance in the abbreviated season. Anybody trying to draw nuanced conclusions about the quality of a team based on how it performed over the course of 38% of a full season is running a fools errand.

    Before the season, the Reds were universally projected to be somewhere in the ballpark of a wild card team. Anywhere between slightly below .500 to winning the division was entirely within the normal realm of expectations given what we already knew about the quality of the roster. And yeah, the structure of the season adds even more variability to that range of reasonable outcomes. That our particularly outcome happened to be one where the pitching was awesome and the hitting lagged behind doesn't tell us a ton more either. Again, both were more or less within the realm of variance in such a short season.

    People need to move on from the tea-leaf reading about the 2020 season and look forward based on updated projections. I'm all for continued improvement of the roster. Replace bad/mediocre players with better players; the best opportunity for that seems to be at SS and C. Get better performances from the players you can reasonably expect to perform better. Hope you don't lose too much in regression from the over-performers. But there's no magic shape of production. The best teams only share 1 thing in common -- they consistently score more runs than they allow.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  5. #243
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations

    Quote Originally Posted by CySeymour View Post
    This is a valid criticism, and my only take is why has the system been this poor at either identifying talent or developing talent?
    It turns out they really whiffed on Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, and I think that reflects poorly on the front office that other teams actually were able to identify and develop our own talent that we could not.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Sheed View Post
    When it comes to crow, I'd like nothing more than to eat Dick's all season long and into the postseason.

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    REDREAD (10-21-2020)

  7. #244
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    It turns out they really whiffed on Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, and I think that reflects poorly on the front office that other teams actually were able to identify and develop our own talent that we could not.
    The Dodgers kind of do that to everybody though.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

  8. #245
    .377 in 1905 CySeymour's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    It turns out they really whiffed on Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, and I think that reflects poorly on the front office that other teams actually were able to identify and develop our own talent that we could not.
    I don't think you can say those two players have been devloped yet. Neither has played in AAA, much less in the major leagues.
    ...the 2-2 to Woodsen and here it comes...and it is swung on and missed! And Tom Browning has pitched a perfect game! Twenty-seven outs in a row, and he is being mobbed by his teammates, just to the thirdbase side of the mound.

  9. #246
    Member RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Just to zero in on one part of this - the Reds are still pretty bad at developing talent though, and I don’t see anything Williams has done to address that. Our most promising player acquired through his tanking efforts is Nick Senzel, who will be 26 next year and still hasn’t been able to be an average major leaguer.
    My development comments were primarily in regards to pitching, specifically the massive rework of the development operation that's basically a year old. I would clarify, by "development", I mean broadly as in "getting the most production out of the talent" -- not just turning draftees into major leaguers.

    The Reds pitching in 2020 was, by far, the best team performance of my lifetime (since '82). Bauer was great, but it goes well beyond him. It includes continued improvement from Luis Catillo's continued improvement, Sonny Gray's return to form, Tyler Mahle, Amir Garrett, Tejay Antone, Lucas Sims, and Raisel Igelsias. Other than Bauer and arguably Iglesias, these were all guys returning more value than projected.

    Given all prior caveats about sample size, we'll see how much of this progress sticks. We'll see how much regression there is. We'll see what comes of Tony Santillan, Hunter Greene, and Nick Lodolo, each of whom could contribute in 2021. It's an admittedly open question whether this system is what the early signs suggest it could be.

    But the point is that there's a systemic plan, a coordinated, cutting-edge approach that required real buy-in from ownership and management. It wasn't the continuation of the failed "hope to beat everybody else at their own game, only with fewer resources" plan of the prior 30+ years. That's what has me hopeful.

    And, as I've said, I'm a bit worried that no such plan seems to exist on the position player side of things...
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operationss

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    No. That particular stat tells you nothing.

    Bauer could have just as easily gotten Sonny Gray's run support and the team would have gone 8-3 or 9-2 in his starts with the exact same team, offense included. The team's record is Bauer's starts says absolutely nothing about the team that is said better by their overall performance in the abbreviated season. Anybody trying to draw nuanced conclusions about the quality of a team based on how it performed over the course of 38% of a full season is running a fools errand.

    Before the season, the Reds were universally projected to be somewhere in the ballpark of a wild card team. Anywhere between slightly below .500 to winning the division was entirely within the normal realm of expectations given what we already knew about the quality of the roster. And yeah, the structure of the season adds even more variability to that range of reasonable outcomes. That our particularly outcome happened to be one where the pitching was awesome and the hitting lagged behind doesn't tell us a ton more either. Again, both were more or less within the realm of variance in such a short season.

    People need to move on from the tea-leaf reading about the 2020 season and look forward based on updated projections. I'm all for continued improvement of the roster. Replace bad/mediocre players with better players; the best opportunity for that seems to be at SS and C. Get better performances from the players you can reasonably expect to perform better. Hope you don't lose too much in regression from the over-performers. But there's no magic shape of production. The best teams only share 1 thing in common -- they consistently score more runs than they allow.
    Say what you will, they were shut out 7 times in 60 games, the entire IF was below average to terrible defensively and the only reason they made the play-offs was because of the expanded tournament implemented to compensate for the lack of fans in the park. It's OK as transitional year from doormat to competitor, but it's hardly an indication that we can just keep things intact with minor changes while replacing the best pitcher in the league with some fourth starter that they can afford. They have a team filled with Mark Trumbos. We saw how that worked out in Baltimore. Fix it before we end up like them. That means one of the guys who is in that profile needs removed from the mix and replaced with somebody who adds diversity to the line-up and hopefully fits the defensive alignment better. Do that while adding a SS who can play and add to the offense and turning catcher over to Stephenson with one of the others (my vote is keep Casali and deal Barnhart). Three of this team's infielders need to be moved down a notch on the defensive spectrum (Votto, Moose, Suarez) and the other spot is an open hole. To do that, the DH, who was the team's best hitter, needs to go or the expensive RF does so the DH can move to the OF. Of course that leaves the import from Japan out of a spot. He doesn't have the arm for RF and the team's best young player is stationed in CF. Personally, I'd move Senzel back to 2B and let Shogo play CF and get a new RF who can play.

    I think people here have watched the Reds play losing, terrible baseball for so long, they've completely forgotten what a good team looks like. This isn't it. It's a mediocrity whose top players are expensive and aging and is about to lose it's top performer. Filling holes and otherwise standing pat, as people in this thread are proposing, isn't enough
    Last edited by mth123; 10-13-2020 at 04:24 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    REDREAD (10-21-2020)

  13. #248
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    It turns out they really whiffed on Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs, and I think that reflects poorly on the front office that other teams actually were able to identify and develop our own talent that we could not.
    Josiah Gray posted a 2.58 ERA with 59 strikeouts, 1 home run allowed, and 29 hits in 52.1 innings in the one season that he was with the Reds. Jeter Downs performance certainly got better when he went to the Dodgers, but he went from a pitchers league to two hitter leagues, too. And he was a former 1st round pick - so identifying him as a talent is a strange claim against the Reds on this one. Everyone I ever spoke to with the Reds (and almost everyone outside of the Reds) thought he was going to get better as a hitter as he grew into things. The questions were almost always about where he would move to on the defensive spectrum.

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    Re: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Josiah Gray posted a 2.58 ERA with 59 strikeouts, 1 home run allowed, and 29 hits in 52.1 innings in the one season that he was with the Reds. Jeter Downs performance certainly got better when he went to the Dodgers, but he went from a pitchers league to two hitter leagues, too. And he was a former 1st round pick - so identifying him as a talent is a strange claim against the Reds on this one. Everyone I ever spoke to with the Reds (and almost everyone outside of the Reds) thought he was going to get better as a hitter as he grew into things. The questions were almost always about where he would move to on the defensive spectrum.
    I think Wonderful Monds’ point is that they didn’t value them enough to keep them. The fact that the players the Reds acquired for them were flops just makes it worse.
    Were going to get the pitching. -Bob Castellini
    You got the pitching, now what? - Reds fans

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    REDREAD (10-21-2020)

  17. #250
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    Re: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    One thing to remember when evaluating the Reds 2020:

    They played exclusively in the Central division, mostly the NL Central. Every Central team was eliminated in the first round of the postseason.
    In 3 game series...which is about as random as it gets.

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    Member Rolando's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations

    Quote Originally Posted by jwdoc77 View Post
    In 3 game series...which is about as random as it gets.
    Especially since the team the Reds lost to still hasn't lost a playoff game and they are absolutely trashing the dodgers. Not make excuses for the Reds I don't think it was in two games in a row at Atlanta it's exactly the worst thing it ever happened
    Crazy Reds Fan

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    Tom Servo (10-13-2020)

  20. #252
    Member Mutaman's Avatar
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    Re: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolando View Post
    Especially since the team the Reds lost to still hasn't lost a playoff game and they are absolutely trashing the dodgers. Not make excuses for the Reds I don't think it was in two games in a row at Atlanta it's exactly the worst thing it ever happened
    Except you are leaving out the fact that they didn't score a run in 23 innings and displayed the same inept lack of fundamentals that we have been seeing for over 5 years. I don't care if the Braves go on to be crowned the next 27 Yankees- it was a really miserable performance.

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    Re: Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations

    i love the excuses by the "loyalist" try to explain 1-3 no one out twice ,, bases loaded one out, once

    childish phony double steals, tring to advance to third on single to left field,, not scoring on a hit from 2nd,, absolute incompetence


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