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Thread: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

  1. #1
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Pretty bare, according to Fangraphs' prospect expert, Eric Longenhagen. 36 guys who may help the Reds moving forward. The scouting scale numbers are bad, but the write-ups are written oddly promisingly. (Perhaps that's just a Longenhagen style.) India takes a massive drop; he's been a skeptic on India since being drafted and reports/ scouting takes on his exit velocity are Longenhagen's main point.

    He really likes Garcia (and thinks he'll be an eventual All-Star). He thinks Stephenson is a first-division starter as a catcher. Greene, Solomon, and DeLeon (and numerous others) have very high scouting grades both currently and future, but have much lower overall values, which is interesting. The variance among the most talented prospects is also interesting. Lots of boom/ bust in the system.

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    There’s a reason why I speculate India doesn’t have much trade value.

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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    There’s a reason why I speculate India doesn’t have much trade value.
    Agree on the trade value, but I haven't written him off yet. He didn't have time to unpack his suitcase in 2018 after being moved so much. Reached AA in what was really his first full season in 2019. Jury is still out for me.

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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    Agree on the trade value, but I haven't written him off yet. He didn't have time to unpack his suitcase in 2018 after being moved so much. Reached AA in what was really his first full season in 2019. Jury is still out for me.
    I agree and I said before, it’s ride or die time now. Maybe that flash from his senior year at UF shows back up.

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    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I agree and I said before, it’s ride or die time now. Maybe that flash from his senior year at UF shows back up.
    Junior year, but yeah, he’s looking like a one year wonder at UF.
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Junior year, but yeah, heís looking like a one year wonder at UF.
    Ha, after I wrote that I was thinking it was junior but didn't bother looking.

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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    His write-up on Lodolo mirrors my thoughts. I don’t see what is exciting about him. Seems pretty meh to me
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    I dig that he put Garcia #1. That said, no one has a clue where these kids fall heading into this season. I expect seismic shifts in every system in baseball. Some prospects are going to completely disintegrate while some others suddenly are going to be studs. The whiplash is going to be extreme.
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Alfredo not mentioned at all?
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    Alfredo not mentioned at all?
    That makes sense, he's not any good and is 26.5 yrs old. No mention of Leo Rivas (a 40 FV from the Angels writeup a year ago) is more confusing to me.

    The encouraging remarks on Garcia make this list a win for me. He and Stephenson are some of the only guys scouts likely got a good, long look at anyway. Makes me think there's not chance the Reds are going multi-year on any SS; they'll wait out the market and sign Simmons for a 1-year deal and go Garcia or bust in 2022.

    I like the news on Callihan, he's my heir to Votto candidate.

    Almost forgot about Jackson Miller. Between Tucker, Stephenson, Grullon, Yang and Miller the Reds remain on-point in the Catching game.

    Also cautiously optimistic on Vlad actually contributing something in a Reds uni, and I forgot all about Sanmartin, who could contribute as the last lefty in the pen this year as well.

    I know the system is soft, and as M2 mentioned, there will be some real wild swings in 2021, but I am more positive than most "experts" because I think the top 5 guys are all pretty great prospects and hopeful that at least 2 of them will be excellent pros, and 2 more will be very good.

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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I dig that he put Garcia #1. That said, no one has a clue where these kids fall heading into this season. I expect seismic shifts in every system in baseball. Some prospects are going to completely disintegrate while some others suddenly are going to be studs. The whiplash is going to be extreme.
    For lower level hitters, those gains may be masked by the league they'll occupy. (At least for Cincinnati.) Conversely, the pitching may look better than it really is.

    I do wonder how they'll stock the minor league cupboard. That, to me, is the biggest question baseball faces this year-- and the most far-reaching.

    Does Lodolo go to AA? Greene? (Those two plus Richardson, Heatherly, and perhaps Eduardo Salazar could be among the best rotations in minor league baseball.) All five of these guys could start the year in Dayton, then move on at the halfway point of the season.

    Are they aggressive with Hinds, Callihan, and Johnson? They're going to have a bit of a roster crunch anyway, with combining two teams into one. They have five catchers who showed some promise and pedigree in the lowest levels of the professional ranks-- James Free, Jose Tello, Wilfred Astudillo, Luke Berryhill, and Daniel Vellojin. What are they going to do with them?

    What about college pitchers drafted the past two years? Do they just pile up in Instructs and low A Daytona? With Hendrick, Wainwright, and a whole host of college OF from the 2019 draft not to mention Dominican League guys from 2019, there are conceivably 10 OF who'll vie for time in Daytona. Might some of them be moved aggressively? I suspect so. If so, who?

    The teams that can answer these types of questions with their own prospects (and can determine how other teams screwed up) will have a massive advantage in development and talent acquisition, but that window is super tight-- no more than a year.

    I hope Cincinnati's focus on analytics can provide some low-hanging fruit. (Though, to my eyes, early returns like the Rule 5 draft have been decidedly questionable.)

  18. #12
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I dig that he put Garcia #1. That said, no one has a clue where these kids fall heading into this season. I expect seismic shifts in every system in baseball. Some prospects are going to completely disintegrate while some others suddenly are going to be studs. The whiplash is going to be extreme.
    Yep. Just above RTG said he wasn’t bullish on Lodolo - which is totally fine. But when I went to look at who was picked after him we really have no good info (true game action) on any of these guys yet. We will know so much more once MiLB games start.

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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Yep. Just above RTG said he wasnít bullish on Lodolo - which is totally fine. But when I went to look at who was picked after him we really have no good info (true game action) on any of these guys yet. We will know so much more once MiLB games start.
    My opinion on Lodolo is kind of weird. I think he was absolutely the right pick, but Iím not excited about him. It was a tough draft to be the 7th pick. Huge drop from 6 to 7 IMO.

    Itís funny, though, I remember leading up to the draft there was smoke around the Reds selecting Rutledge and I remember being very against taking him, the Nats got him in the teens and now the experts are salivating over him. Just listened to the BA podcast about the Nats prospects and they are very high on him.

    So, what do I know....
    Last edited by RedTeamGo!; 12-24-2020 at 02:43 PM.
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    My opinion on Lodolo is kind of weird. I think he was absolutely the right pick, but I’m not excited about him. It was a tough draft to be the 7th pick. Huge drop from 6 to 7 IMO.

    It’s funny, though, I remember leading up to the draft there was smoke around the Reds selecting Rutledge and I remember being very against taking him, the Nats got him in the teens and now the experts are salivating over him. Just listened to the BA podcast about the Nats prospects and they are very high on him.

    So, what do I know....
    Literally everywhere ranks Lodolo higher than Rutledge.

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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    N/M.
    Last edited by Kc61; 12-25-2020 at 12:11 PM.


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