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Thread: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    Let's play the armchair GM game in earnest. Every few days, we can discuss one pitcher and one offensive player available in free agency, as a nontender target, or in trade. I'd love to debate the intricacies of possible acquisitions and whether they'd be worth the gamble/ money/ roster spot.

    The first two this week (because, hey, it's my thread) are Yankees: C/ DH Gary Sanchez and SP James Paxton.

    Gary Sanchez
    Overview: Since setting the world on fire his rookie season, Sanchez has gone downhill. Last season was brutal in every respect. He didn't defend well, he didn't frame well, he didn't throw well. In fact, he's a total minus with the glove. Offensively, he's feast or famine, and lately, it's been desert-like. How does a 2020 line with .147/ .253/ .365 attached to it grab you? Still, the kid is still just 27 and put up a monster 132 wRC+ season in his first full season in pinstripes. In 2019, he didn't hit well, but still managed to be 16% better than league average offensively. The power plays all the time.
    What Would It Cost: The Yankees don't want to pay the luxury tax, and their payroll is just $30M or so below that line before factoring in raises to pitchers and perhaps signing AL BA champ DJ LeMahieu. Too, they may well be tired of depending on someone like Sanchez and might like someone more dependable. They may well nontender Sanchez and look to acquire a veteran presence or solid defender. Let's assume, for the sake of argument, Sanchez is non-tendered.

    James Paxton
    Overview: The talent isn't an issue-- Paxton's been a TOR guy when healthy. But, boy, it's hard for him to stay on the field. He's never been able to provide a full season of games or more than 160 IP in a season. When he's on, Paxton is often dominant, so the trade-off has always been worth it. This year, however, he was not dominant nor was he on. He was again injured and ended the season on the disabled list. Again. He's a lefty who K's a whole bunch of people (when he's on), walks a few (but not too many), and allows less than a hit an inning. He's going to be 32 next season.
    What Would It Cost: Cash. Paxton is a free agent coming off a really poor year and yet another injury. The Yankees aren't likely to put a qualified offer on him. (To say the least.) I doubt they're in the mood to gamble, considering their struggles in staying healthy over the past few years. A pillow contract of somewhere around $10M might do it (though I suspect an enterprising also-ran might pony up a bit more on a one-year deal).

    Do either of these guys strike your fancy? Make a case, RedsZone. For or against.
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 10-17-2020 at 09:48 PM.


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    Thanks a lot, Bowie Kuhn Revering4Blue's Avatar
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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    - Sanchez, in isolation, wouldn't be a bad idea were he non-tendered. But, with Tyler Stephenson in the fold, signing Sanchez would assuredly entail dealing both Casali and Barnhart. Can't see that happening.

    - Operating under the assumption that Bauer signs elsewhere - who knows what will transpire there - Paxton, at least on the surface, would seem to make sense as a bounce-back candidate on a short-term deal. That said, I'd pass on any potential deal longer than two guaranteed years given his durability/health issues.
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    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    No on Sanchez. The Reds have too many players who profile like him - power with low BA, poor to horrible defense and little speed. The team needs other skillsets. Besides, Catcher isn't really a need. Hand it to Tyler Stephenson and deal off one of the current guys, with my strong preference being deal Barnhart and keep Casali.

    Paxton seems like a decent target for a reasonable price. Something similar to the deal thy gave Sonny Gray, If it goes higher, I'd let some other team take the risk of getting nothing while Paxton sits on teh DL.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    No on Sanchez. The Reds have too many players who profile like him - power with low BA, poor to horrible defense and little speed. The team needs other skillsets. Besides, Catcher isn't really a need. Hand it to Tyler Stephenson and deal off one of the current guys, with my strong preference being deal Barnhart and keep Casali.

    Paxton seems like a decent target for a reasonable price. Something similar to the deal thy gave Sonny Gray, If it goes higher, I'd let some other team take the risk of getting nothing while Paxton sits on teh DL.
    I agree, though Paxton’s riskier than Sonny Gray. Paxton has had injuries and ended the season with a left forearm injury, flexor strain. Gray was healthy. This could drive the price down for Pax, depends on the medicals.

    Agree with mth on catcher, though I might trade Casali rather than Barnhart. Casali’s trade value should be higher, he strikes out at a very high rate, he’s duplicative of Tyler as a RHH. Either way, Tyler gets the full shot as starter.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-18-2020 at 09:46 AM.

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    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I agree, though Paxton’s riskier than Sonny Gray. Paxton has had injuries and ended the season with a left forearm injury, flexor strain. Gray was healthy. This could drive the price down for Pax, depends on the medicals.

    Agree with mth on catcher, though I might trade Casali rather than Barnhart. Casali’s trade value should be higher, he strikes out at a very high rate, he’s duplicative of Tyler as a RHH. Either way, Tyler gets the full shot as starter.
    Didn't know about the flexor strain. That was the start of Homer Bailey's downfall. I'd offer an incentive laden deal but no multi-year guarantees in that case. That's still all I'd do for the rotation is add possibilities and save my money for the position side. A Rotation with Castillo and Gray at the top still matches well with most other contenders. Miley (though I'd look to move his money and go after somebody better) Lorenzen/Antone, Mahle and a couple comeback guys like Paxton. Even without Bauer, the Rotation is still the strongest unit on the roster (as compared to the catchers, the IF, the OF and the Bullpen, though the pen is close) and most likely to receive help from the system with Lodolo, Greene and maybe Santillan getting close throughout the season (this assumes Stephenson starts out as the primary catcher).

    As far as Casali vs. Barnhart, I just think Casali is better all around and fits better with Johnson's background. I get the LH vs RH stuff, but I still opt for the better player and IMO, that's Casali. I wouldn't give Barnhart away though He has value.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-18-2020 at 01:11 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Didn't know about the flexor strain. That was the start of Homer Bailey's downfall. I'd offer an incentive laden deal but no multi-year guarantees in that case. That's still all I'd do for the rotation is add possibilities and save my money for the position side. A Rotation with Castillo and Gray at the top still matches well with most other contenders. Miley (though I'd look to move his money and go after somebody better) Lorenzen/Antone, Mahle and a couple comeback guys like Paxton. Even without Bauer, the Rotation is still the strongest unit on the roster (as compared to the catchers, the IF, the OF and the Bullpen, though the pen is close) and most likely to receive help from the system with Lodolo, Greene and maybe Santillan getting close throughout the season (this assumes Stephenson starts out as the primary catcher).

    As far as Casali vs. Barnhart, I just think Casali is better all around and fits better with Johnson's background. I get the LH vs RH stuff, but I still opt for the better player and IMO, that's Casali. I wouldn't give Barnhart away though He has value.
    My theory on trading Casali is “sell high.” We’re talking secondary catcher anyway. Casali has done pretty well with the power/walk philosophy, but strike out rate getting up there. I’d look to cash in on his good numbers.

    Not the biggest issue, understand the contrary point, depends on the offers Reds would get for each of them.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-18-2020 at 02:19 PM.

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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    If Sanchez is willing to go to AAA and he's willing to take a minor league invite sure. Otherwise we just don't have a need.

    With the injury Paxton is also going to struggle to be on a 40 man roster.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    No on Gary Sanchez. Having just watched the Reds get shutout for 22 straight playoff innings the last thing we need is a 1 tool player, who's only tool is the ability to hit the occasional HR. We have too many guys like that already.

    Paxton I would be interested at a bargain rate and throw him in the bullpen. I would want to limit his innings due to his arm issues, plus I think in short stints where he can pump up the velos from the left side, he might be an interesting piece.

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    Time for a couple of new names:

    Michael Brantley
    Overview: Mr. Smooth can hit. Period. He's a .300 BA waiting to happen, has a career 116 OPS+, and burgeoning power. He also struggles to stay healthy and is a lousy fielder, even in LF.
    What Would It Cost: The Astros are getting expensive, and Brantley is getting older. Let's say 3 years at $45M.

    Mike Foltynewicz
    Overview: Foltynewicz burst onto the scene three years ago as a 26-year-old with a solid fastball and an even better feel for pitching. He was adequate at best the next season and horrid and hurt in 2020. Still just 29, he could be a sneaky good pick-up cheap.
    What Would It Cost: Oddly, Foltynewicz is a minor league free agent, so it would likely cost a major league roster spot and a solid opportunity.

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    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    I think I would rather see what Foltynewicz can do than like Tyler Mahle at this point. I guess you’d have to ask the scouts about that though. Seems like high bust potential/high reward.

    I don’t know if I see the fit for Brantley though. The team already has enough corner outfielders who should be DHing as it is.
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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    I think I would rather see what Foltynewicz can do than like Tyler Mahle at this point.
    You don't think Mahle can repeat 2020 over a full season? 3.59 ERA in 9 starts and 6.4 H/9 augers well.

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    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    Pass on Brantley. Folty on a make good deal, possibly as a reliever.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-27-2020 at 09:34 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    The other day I was scanning the top pitchers from 2017-2018, thinking about who was the "next Sonny Gray" and Foltynewicz was one that stood out.

    Seems like a good target, though the fact that the Braves just cut him loose for nothing makes me think they he may be somehow physically done pitching effectively.

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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    Brantley gets on base and we could use that. On the other hand he's gonna make some dough and the reds don't really need a leftfielder. While I think he would be a nice piece, he doesn't really represent need.

    I would talk with my people about Foltynewicz. I would rather have Bauer back, but if the price is right it's no worse than throwing starts at Wade Davis.

    Better class of player than the first two.
    "Even a bad day at the ballpark beats the snot out of most other good days. I'll take my scorecard and pencil and beer and hot dog and rage at the dips and cheer at the highs, but I'm not ever going to stop loving this game and this team and nobody will ever take that away from me." Roy Tucker October 2010

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    Member 15fan's Avatar
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    Re: Playing GM: Would You Could You?

    Hard pass on Foltynewicz. He’s cooked.


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