Originally Posted by
Bourgeois Zee
I suppose I could couch every comment with an "in my opinion," but that'd make my long posts even longer. Just assume everything I say is an opinion. I may absolutely be wrong.
That said, Smith, at his best, is a 15 - 20 mpg guy playing behind Ayton. And that assumes the Suns aren't going to play Saric any at center, a lineup that was very effective in the bubble last season. They're not trading Ayton, and they're not going to cut his minutes either. Now, maybe he can play PF, you say. Fair enough. If he can, he'll have to beat out Saric (who they just paid relatively big money), Jae Crowder (who they also just paid relatively big money), and Cam Johnson (who handled the backup PF spot incredibly well in the bubble). That's a lot to overcome for a rookie on a team that's looking to push for a playoff spot.
Vassell is nearly going to double Smith's minutes as a backup to DeRozan and Derek White. More than that, the Spurs are focused largely on developing their young guys. He's going to get minutes to show what he can do.
Boston is in the middle of a championship run, but Nesmith is a two-position backup. He's going to get some run behind Smart at 2G and Brown at SF, not because he's a better player, but because he has a spot on the Celtics that's nearly perfect for his skillset-- shooting from distance. (He doesn't even have to be all that good defensively, rebound, or dribble. Just shoot.)
Bey will probably start from the get-go in Detroit. If he's not a starter, he's going to get starter minutes soon thereafter. And they're going to push him to score. They're another team that's in development mode. He's going to get his minutes to show his mettle.
Secondly, Smith was about a 10 spot overdraft. Even if he's who the Suns wanted (and it's apparent he was), we know from reports that Boston was willing to trade up. We know that Minnesota was looking to trade up too. Both had picks closer to Smith's range. Phoenix had the opportunity to grab another asset instead of picking Smith where they did.
And hey, I may be wrong. This wouldn't be the first time, for sure. But what's the payout for Smith? Is it similar to Johnson, as a 10-year backup? If so, that's a pretty low bar for the 10th pick, IMO. Maybe Phoenix has found a sneaky good plan the last two seasons and is building around the edges. I'd argue with picks as high as they've got, that's not a great way to build a team.