Turn Off Ads?
Page 1 of 13 1234511 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 184

Thread: Poor Kevin Cash

  1. #1
    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    3,163

    Poor Kevin Cash

    He was wrong to remove Snell by the common sense method (Cy Young winner cruising in a big game) AND wrong on the analytics (Betts is worse vs. lefties, and worse the SECOND time he faces a batter, than the THIRD.)

    He was going by the analytics book, rather than analyzing the situation.

    Jomboy (NSFW - Warning) analysis here: https://youtu.be/u3G8QytAKWA
    Last edited by The Operator; 10-28-2020 at 09:15 PM.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill


  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #2
    Moderator The Operator's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Carlisle, OH
    Posts
    7,972

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Was going to post the same clip. I added a NSFW note to your link because of the language just to be safe, by the way.
    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    Don't worry. I'd say the game threads are about league average.
    "[Price] said he and the GM have become “somewhat in lockstep” with how they view the best way forward for the team, including how to handle promotions and playing young players while also trying to win games."

  4. #3
    Moderator The Operator's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Carlisle, OH
    Posts
    7,972

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    But yes, that video sums it up very nicely. Anderso had been getting beaten around since early in the ALCS. It made no sense to remove Snell period, but it especially made no sense to pull him and replace him with Nick Anderson.


    “3rd time through the lineup” has almost become the analytics version of “shortstop bats second” or “closer pitches the 9th” in my opinion.


    The great thing early on in the analytics movement, to me, was that it helped break down some of the rigidity in the old school dogmatic thinking in baseball in addition to helping teams find undervalued players.

    Blindly making a horrible decision (even by the statistics it made no sense) all because “3rd time through the order, Anderson is our next guy in the script” is every bit as dumb as some of the old school ideas that the analytics movement helped get rid of.

    Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate statistical analysis and I’m glad that The Reds, for instance, have finally joined the 21st century and begun embracing analytics.

    But again, everything should be in moderation. To me, last night was damn near a “jumped the shark” moment for analytics.
    Last edited by The Operator; 10-28-2020 at 09:25 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    Don't worry. I'd say the game threads are about league average.
    "[Price] said he and the GM have become “somewhat in lockstep” with how they view the best way forward for the team, including how to handle promotions and playing young players while also trying to win games."

  5. Likes:

    Chip R (10-29-2020),goldglover9 (10-28-2020),RedsBaron (10-28-2020),RiverRat13 (10-29-2020)

  6. #4
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    11,961

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Nobody has ever claimed the use of analytics would work 100% of the time, just that the use of analytics works the great majority of the time.

  7. Likes:

    Revering4Blue (10-28-2020)

  8. #5
    Probably not Patrick Bateman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Calgary, AB
    Posts
    7,917

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Does anyone know if Snell’s velocity was diminishing at all? That’s what I would have looked for if I was going to make the move prematurely, and bought into the 3rd time through metrics being applicable in this case.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  9. #6
    Member Wonderful Monds's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Posts
    8,990

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    Does anyone know if Snell’s velocity was diminishing at all? That’s what I would have looked for if I was going to make the move prematurely, and bought into the 3rd time through metrics being applicable in this case.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I’m more interested in what his ERA looks like along with pitch count more than times through the order. He only threw 73 pitches, not really a ton at all. I don’t know how pitch efficient Snell usually is, but I’m more curious about that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Sheed View Post
    When it comes to crow, I'd like nothing more than to eat Dick's all season long and into the postseason.

  10. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Dayton, OH
    Posts
    587

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    I was one of the people that asked what the heck he was doing the second he stepped foot out of the dugout.

    Snell was looking good and his velocity seemed fine (fastball between 94-97 all night, which is normal for him). Also, it was the least amount of pitches he's thrown in the postseason.

    You can't rely solely on analytics, especially in the World Series where the pressure can't be accounted for. Given that, I'm trusting the guy that's delivered in the past.

  11. #8
    Probably not Patrick Bateman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    Calgary, AB
    Posts
    7,917

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    I’m more interested in what his ERA looks like along with pitch count more than times through the order. He only threw 73 pitches, not really a ton at all. I don’t know how pitch efficient Snell usually is, but I’m more curious about that.
    FWIW fangraphs has an article up about the topic. Just reading it now, his velocity was a full 2-3 mph lower than it was at any other point in the game and had Betts coming up. Suffice to say, Snell was on the velocity decline, and I don’t hate the idea of trying to take him out a batter too early than too late when you have data that points to increasingly diminished returns at that level of velocity and time through the order. I just wouldn’t have picked Anderson.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  12. Likes:

    M2 (10-29-2020),Revering4Blue (10-28-2020),Ron Madden (10-28-2020)

  13. #9
    Member Wheelhouse's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    3,163

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    Nobody has ever claimed the use of analytics would work 100% of the time, just that the use of analytics works the great majority of the time.
    That wasn't my point. It was this: Cash resorted to slogan (third time through the order) rather than analytics. The stats were against his decision.
    "Don't trust any statistics you did not fake yourself."--Winston Churchill

  14. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta, aka, the most prosperous city in the world.
    Posts
    12,977

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by Wheelhouse View Post
    That wasn't my point. It was this: Cash resorted to slogan (third time through the order) rather than analytics. The stats were against his decision.
    Betts isn’t historically better vs. Righties, just this season based on a small sample size.

    And do we really know why Cash made his decision?


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

  15. Likes:

    kaldaniels (10-29-2020)

  16. #11
    Member 757690's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dayton
    Posts
    25,367

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Betts isn’t historically better vs. Righties, just this season based on a small sample size.

    And do we really know why Cash made his decision?


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    I agree that the stats were vague on this, I don’t think anyone can claim the analytics were definitely for or against this decision.

    We do know why Cash made his decision. He said it. He didn’t want Snell to go through the order a third time. Here’s his direct:

    Rays manager Kevin Cash: "The only motive was that the lineup the Dodgers feature is as potent as any in the league. Personally, I felt Blake had done his job and then some. Mookie coming around the third time. I totally value and respect the questions that come with it. I guess I regret it because it didn't work out. The thought process was right,"
    And that’s the problem I have with the decision. It really wasn’t based on analytics, it was based on a rigid adherence to a game plan developed before the playoffs even started.

    The Rays and Dodgers demonstrated over the years how effective these analytic based plans are when played out over a full season. But history has also shown how ineffective they are in the postseason, when the odds they are based on don’t have a chance to fully play out. In the playoffs, you have to go with your gut every now and then.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  17. Likes:

    Chip R (10-29-2020),goldglover9 (10-29-2020)

  18. #12
    Member mth123's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    24,901

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopdaddy67 View Post
    I was one of the people that asked what the heck he was doing the second he stepped foot out of the dugout.

    Snell was looking good and his velocity seemed fine (fastball between 94-97 all night, which is normal for him). Also, it was the least amount of pitches he's thrown in the postseason.

    You can't rely solely on analytics, especially in the World Series where the pressure can't be accounted for. Given that, I'm trusting the guy that's delivered in the past.
    In addition to this, just look at the situation. Snell is by far their best pitcher, he's coming off a short season where he pitched 50 innings. In a regular year, it's the equivalent of the middle of June, mid-season form. He'd thrown 73 pitches. This was literally the last time he was going to pitch this season, so there was no concern that pushing him would impact his next start. It was win or go home. Analytics or no, he goes back out there until something tells me he needs to come out. If somebody gets on base, his velocity drops, his command goes wonky...but none of that was happening.

    The Rays didn't score enough runs, so it probably didn't really matter in the end, but removing Snell was one of the worst decisions I've ever seen a Manager make.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  19. Likes:

    757690 (10-29-2020),alwaysawarrior (10-29-2020),Coopdaddy67 (10-29-2020),goldglover9 (10-29-2020),texasdave (10-29-2020)

  20. #13
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Posts
    1,303

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    i'm a fan of analytics. but that was as bad as it gets. kevin cash deserves all the heat coming his way.

  21. #14
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2002
    Location
    Calgary, Alberta, aka, the most prosperous city in the world.
    Posts
    12,977

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The Rays and Dodgers demonstrated over the years how effective these analytic based plans are when played out over a full season. But history has also shown how ineffective they are in the postseason, when the odds they are based on don’t have a chance to fully play out. In the playoffs, you have to go with your gut every now and then.
    If analytics suggests a move is successful 60% of the time, it’s a good move over a full season. It’s also a good move in a short series even though it will fail 40% of the time.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

  22. Likes:

    *BaseClogger* (10-29-2020),CaiGuy (10-29-2020),Ed Otten (10-29-2020)

  23. #15
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Reds Diaspora
    Posts
    2,026

    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    If analytics suggests a move is successful 60% of the time, it’s a good move over a full season. It’s also a good move in a short series even though it will fail 40% of the time.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Yeah, it's kind of like when a player manages to beat an extreme shift. A ground ball goes through right where the shortstop would normally play, and folks could say, "wow, see how stupid the shift was, it cost them an out." But if a standard alignment results in an out 65% of the time, and the shift increase that to 75%, you are going to shift...even though you still fail 25% of the time.

    So with the Rays, the only way they can succeed with their vastly smaller resources is by being different and ahead of the curve in other areas. If their analytical approach helps them succeed and get to game 6 of the world series, they are going to stick with it. They win more games overall than if they weren't using this approach, even if it doesn't always work out or backfires in one specific scenario. Live by the sword, die by the sword and all.
    Last edited by CaiGuy; 10-29-2020 at 10:33 AM.

  24. Likes:

    Chip R (10-29-2020)


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | cumberlandreds | Gallen5862 | Kinsm | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator