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Thread: Poor Kevin Cash

  1. #76
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by JFLegal View Post
    end of the world? of course not. but it does clearly spell out why it was a terrible decision and actually went against the advanced metrics.
    Again, the advanced metrics don’t all
    point to a black and white outcome. There are data points on both sides of the decision, that could be spun in either direction.


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  3. #77
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    You are really now starting to did yourself a big hole.

    So, in summary, Cash was correct in following analytics until that one final time, when he should have gone against the charts.

    If only he could see the future.


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    If you look at my posts I have made clear the decision was a difficult one with no clear right answer.

    My only point is that strict adherence to a regular season plan doesn’t work as well in the post season. This actually is the same criticism that Dusty Baker has received. He manages the same way in the post season as he does in the regular season, and it so far has cost him a ring as well.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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  4. #78
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If you look at my posts I have made clear the decision was a difficult one with no clear right answer.

    My only point is that strict adherence to a regular season plan doesn’t work as well in the post season. This actually is the same criticism that Dusty Baker has received. He manages the same way in the post season as he does in the regular season, and it so far has cost him a ring as well.
    This is only his second time in the postseason and he got to the World Series. He's 14-12 overall. By all measures he's doing pretty well.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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  5. #79
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    This is only his second time in the postseason and he got to the World Series. He's 14-12 overall. By all measures he's doing pretty well.
    I can’t wait to see that “14-12 - Pretty Good” banner flying over The Trop
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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    goldglover9 (10-30-2020)

  7. #80
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I can’t wait to see that “14-12 - Pretty Good” banner flying over The Trop
    I suspect Rays fans enjoy have a relevant and contending team (all 15 of them).
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  8. #81
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    It was wrong in interpreting many facts.


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    what "many facts" were interpreted wrong? he used hard data to back up what he was saying. it was not his opinion.

  9. #82
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    Again, the advanced metrics don’t all
    point to a black and white outcome. There are data points on both sides of the decision, that could be spun in either direction.


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    no one said metrics could predict the exact outcome. but they do show when you have a greater (or lesser) probability of receiving the outcome that you want. pulling snell in that situation gave the rays a lesser probability of receiving their intended outcome, per the analytics. we will never know if snell would have melted down after that, or if he would have continued dominating like he had throughout the game, or somewhere in between. but based on the metrics, pulling him in that situation -- for anderson no less -- certainly went against what advanced metrics indicated what the rays should have done.

    kevin cash screwed up. doesn't make him a bad manager. but he definitely screwed up there and it will be remembered for a long time.

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    Chip R (10-30-2020),texasdave (11-01-2020)

  11. #83
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by JFLegal View Post
    again, kevin cash did not go with the analytics when he pulled snell ... he went against them.

    why is everyone ignoring this fact? some of you need to watch that jomboy video. or watch it again and pay attention this time.

    going against both common sense & analytics is a bad combination. and that's exactly what we witnessed in game 6.
    It's not that he went with or against analytics. What he did is make a decision based on the analytics he had. What the analytics told him was that Snell has a more difficult time the 3rd time through the lineup. That doesn't necessarily mean he should have pulled him but he probably would have had more trouble had he continued. It wasn't a certainty he would. Without getting into splits or anything, let's say that Snell had a 65-35 chance of giving up runs going forward. While the odds say that he will probably give up runs, there's a 35% chance he won't. It's not great but it's not awful.

    We talk about either using analytics to manage or not. Every manager that has lived has used analytics. They have only recently used computers to facilitate the use of the analysis they had. Casey Stengal used analytics when he platooned players when he was with the Yankees. He realized that some of his right handed hitters hit left handed pitchers better and vice versa. He didn't need computers to figure that out. Earl Weaver was known for having index cards that gave him the information he needed to manage. All of that is using analytics. Not using analytics - whether it's using information gleaned from computers or not - is the equivalent of flipping a coin or using a Magic 8 Ball to make decisions.
    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I was wrong
    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Chip is right

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    757690 (10-30-2020),Ed Otten (10-30-2020),Roy Tucker (10-30-2020)

  13. #84
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    the guy needs to observe the game not look at a spreadsheet someone got a single off him big deal????????????????????????

  14. #85
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    It's not that he went with or against analytics. What he did is make a decision based on the analytics he had. What the analytics told him was that Snell has a more difficult time the 3rd time through the lineup. That doesn't necessarily mean he should have pulled him but he probably would have had more trouble had he continued. It wasn't a certainty he would. Without getting into splits or anything, let's say that Snell had a 65-35 chance of giving up runs going forward. While the odds say that he will probably give up runs, there's a 35% chance he won't. It's not great but it's not awful.

    We talk about either using analytics to manage or not. Every manager that has lived has used analytics. They have only recently used computers to facilitate the use of the analysis they had. Casey Stengal used analytics when he platooned players when he was with the Yankees. He realized that some of his right handed hitters hit left handed pitchers better and vice versa. He didn't need computers to figure that out. Earl Weaver was known for having index cards that gave him the information he needed to manage. All of that is using analytics. Not using analytics - whether it's using information gleaned from computers or not - is the equivalent of flipping a coin or using a Magic 8 Ball to make decisions.
    kevin cash did not look deep enough into the analytics is my point. he just made up his mind that snell was not pitching past a certain pitch count and would not go through the order for a third time. it's as if cash had tunnel vision on his player, but didn't even bother to study what the analytics said regarding his opponent. when you only use half the analytics that are available to you, you're not using analytics well. cash made up his mind ahead of time exactly what he was going to do, and failed to adjust his plan once snell was out there looking incredible. every dodger must have been thrilled to see him pulled, and that should tell you something.

    as an aside (not directed at you), it's funny as hell to hear people try and defend a manager pulling his starting pitcher who was dominating and had only thrown 73 pitches. look what baseball has done to you. you're even buying into this nonsense now. think about that: an excellent starting pitcher like blake snell is pitching game 6 of the world series. through 5.1 innings he's absolutely dominating and you're leading 1-0, and he's only thrown 73 pitches.

    you're a fool to pull him in that situation, and that's why kevin cash looks like an absolute fool.

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  16. #86
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    precisely,

  17. #87
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by JFLegal View Post
    kevin cash did not look deep enough into the analytics is my point. he just made up his mind that snell was not pitching past a certain pitch count and would not go through the order for a third time. it's as if cash had tunnel vision on his player, but didn't even bother to study what the analytics said regarding his opponent. when you only use half the analytics that are available to you, you're not using analytics well. cash made up his mind ahead of time exactly what he was going to do, and failed to adjust his plan once snell was out there looking incredible. every dodger must have been thrilled to see him pulled, and that should tell you something.

    as an aside (not directed at you), it's funny as hell to hear people try and defend a manager pulling his starting pitcher who was dominating and had only thrown 73 pitches. look what baseball has done to you. you're even buying into this nonsense now. think about that: an excellent starting pitcher like blake snell is pitching game 6 of the world series. through 5.1 innings he's absolutely dominating and you're leading 1-0, and he's only thrown 73 pitches.

    you're a fool to pull him in that situation, and that's why kevin cash looks like an absolute fool.
    And he was dropping velocity and the mighty Austin Barnes just tagged him. If he's holding his velo and has two outs heading into the Betts AB, then he probably stays in the game.

    Anyway, pull Blake Snell or don't pull Blake Snell, the Dodgers are scoring runs in that game and the Rays are still losing.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  18. #88
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    And he was dropping velocity and the mighty Austin Barnes just tagged him. If he's holding his velo and has two outs heading into the Betts AB, then he probably stays in the game.

    Anyway, pull Blake Snell or don't pull Blake Snell, the Dodgers are scoring runs in that game and the Rays are still losing.
    One correction: Barnes did not “tag” Snell. He hit a soft looper off the end of the bat that was well placed into CF.

    And I wish I had your purely speculative certainty that the Dodgers were going to score no matter what in anything I was attempting. It makes for a nice meme, but lets be honest, it’s not very analytic.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  19. #89
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    A parenthetical note because I just wondered:

    https://www.sciencefriday.com/articl...the-word-meme/
    “He smote Cutshaw athwart the floating ribs with an inshoot.”

  20. #90
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    Re: Poor Kevin Cash

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    And I wish I had your purely speculative certainty that the Dodgers were going to score no matter what in anything I was attempting. It makes for a nice meme, but lets be honest, it’s not very analytic.
    They were shut out exactly zero times in 2020. If you think it was happening in that game I've got some swampland on the moon to sell you.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.


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