If you look at my posts I have made clear the decision was a difficult one with no clear right answer.
My only point is that strict adherence to a regular season plan doesn’t work as well in the post season. This actually is the same criticism that Dusty Baker has received. He manages the same way in the post season as he does in the regular season, and it so far has cost him a ring as well.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
goldglover9 (10-30-2020)
no one said metrics could predict the exact outcome. but they do show when you have a greater (or lesser) probability of receiving the outcome that you want. pulling snell in that situation gave the rays a lesser probability of receiving their intended outcome, per the analytics. we will never know if snell would have melted down after that, or if he would have continued dominating like he had throughout the game, or somewhere in between. but based on the metrics, pulling him in that situation -- for anderson no less -- certainly went against what advanced metrics indicated what the rays should have done.
kevin cash screwed up. doesn't make him a bad manager. but he definitely screwed up there and it will be remembered for a long time.
It's not that he went with or against analytics. What he did is make a decision based on the analytics he had. What the analytics told him was that Snell has a more difficult time the 3rd time through the lineup. That doesn't necessarily mean he should have pulled him but he probably would have had more trouble had he continued. It wasn't a certainty he would. Without getting into splits or anything, let's say that Snell had a 65-35 chance of giving up runs going forward. While the odds say that he will probably give up runs, there's a 35% chance he won't. It's not great but it's not awful.
We talk about either using analytics to manage or not. Every manager that has lived has used analytics. They have only recently used computers to facilitate the use of the analysis they had. Casey Stengal used analytics when he platooned players when he was with the Yankees. He realized that some of his right handed hitters hit left handed pitchers better and vice versa. He didn't need computers to figure that out. Earl Weaver was known for having index cards that gave him the information he needed to manage. All of that is using analytics. Not using analytics - whether it's using information gleaned from computers or not - is the equivalent of flipping a coin or using a Magic 8 Ball to make decisions.
757690 (10-30-2020),Ed Otten (10-30-2020),Roy Tucker (10-30-2020)
the guy needs to observe the game not look at a spreadsheet someone got a single off him big deal????????????????????????
kevin cash did not look deep enough into the analytics is my point. he just made up his mind that snell was not pitching past a certain pitch count and would not go through the order for a third time. it's as if cash had tunnel vision on his player, but didn't even bother to study what the analytics said regarding his opponent. when you only use half the analytics that are available to you, you're not using analytics well. cash made up his mind ahead of time exactly what he was going to do, and failed to adjust his plan once snell was out there looking incredible. every dodger must have been thrilled to see him pulled, and that should tell you something.
as an aside (not directed at you), it's funny as hell to hear people try and defend a manager pulling his starting pitcher who was dominating and had only thrown 73 pitches. look what baseball has done to you. you're even buying into this nonsense now. think about that: an excellent starting pitcher like blake snell is pitching game 6 of the world series. through 5.1 innings he's absolutely dominating and you're leading 1-0, and he's only thrown 73 pitches.
you're a fool to pull him in that situation, and that's why kevin cash looks like an absolute fool.
Bruce Berenyi (10-30-2020)
precisely,
And he was dropping velocity and the mighty Austin Barnes just tagged him. If he's holding his velo and has two outs heading into the Betts AB, then he probably stays in the game.
Anyway, pull Blake Snell or don't pull Blake Snell, the Dodgers are scoring runs in that game and the Rays are still losing.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
One correction: Barnes did not “tag” Snell. He hit a soft looper off the end of the bat that was well placed into CF.
And I wish I had your purely speculative certainty that the Dodgers were going to score no matter what in anything I was attempting. It makes for a nice meme, but lets be honest, it’s not very analytic.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
A parenthetical note because I just wondered:
https://www.sciencefriday.com/articl...the-word-meme/
She used to wake me up with coffee ever morning
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