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Thread: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

  1. #646
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/28/asia/...hnk/index.html

    Suicide data lags in the US—it will be years before we know for sure—but in Japan where suicide data is updated monthly, suicides are up. This month they’re way up.
    Thanks for the link to the data. It’s difficult to draw conclusions from it:

    1. Japan never had a lockdown or significant restrictions, so the numbers have nothing to do with lockdowns or restrictions.
    2. Japan has always had a suicide problem, and these numbers, even the spike this month, are well within what they have been experiencing for years.
    3. Japan’s suicide numbers were lower in the early part of the pandemic, which actually makes the current spike look bigger than it really is.
    4. The number is high this month, but still lower than it was in 2015.
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  3. #647
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Thanks for the link to the data. It’s difficult to draw conclusions from it:

    1. Japan never had a lockdown or significant restrictions, so the numbers have nothing to do with lockdowns or restrictions.
    2. Japan has always had a suicide problem, and these numbers, even the spike this month, are well within what they have been experiencing for years.
    3. Japan’s suicide numbers were lower in the early part of the pandemic, which actually makes the current spike look bigger than it really is.
    4. The number is high this month, but still lower than it was in 2015.
    Did you read the rest of the article? About the increased levels of stress and isolation. It’s not just the lockdown that caused increased stress and anxiety, but now financial concern.

    But for the 10 years leading up to 2019, the number of suicides had been decreasing in Japan, falling to about 20,000 last year, according to the health ministry -- the lowest number since the country's health authorities started keeping records in 1978.

    The pandemic appears to have reversed that trend, and the rise in suicides has disproportionately affected women. Although they represent a smaller proportion of total suicides than men, the number of women taking their own lives is increasing. In October, suicides among women in Japan increased almost 83% compared to the same month the previous year. For comparison, male suicides rose almost 22% over the same time period.
    Last edited by Falls City Beer; 11-29-2020 at 04:53 PM.

  4. #648
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/28/asia/...hnk/index.html

    Suicide data lags in the US—it will be years before we know for sure—but in Japan where suicide data is updated monthly, suicides are up. This month they’re way up.
    Suicide prevention is what I do for a living and the most recent studies at least in the US show that rates are not up due to the pandemic...

    Here is a link to a study Craig Bryan put out OSU is very lucky to have him he's an expert on the subject and does a ton of work with the Veteran population.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...o4CjBQ.twitter

    Could things change absolutely...especially if this pandemic drags on and on and on...but right now rates are not increasing.
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.

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  6. #649
    Man Pills Falls City Beer's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Quote Originally Posted by KoryMac5 View Post
    Suicide prevention is what I do for a living and the most recent studies at least in the US show that rates are not up due to the pandemic...

    Here is a link to a study Craig Bryan put out OSU is very lucky to have him he's an expert on the subject and does a ton of work with the Veteran population.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...o4CjBQ.twitter

    Could things change absolutely...especially if this pandemic drags on and on and on...but right now rates are not increasing.
    Respectfully how does he know? And if his data are reliable why doesn’t the CDC do what Japan does, simply post the suicide numbers?

  7. #650
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Did you read the rest of the article? About the increased levels of stress and isolation. It’s not just the lockdown that caused increased stress and anxiety, but now financial concern.
    I would assume a pandemic would increase suicide rates everywhere. This is a serious issue that should be addressed. These numbers don’t reveal anything that surprising, tragic as they are.
    Hoping to change my username to 75769023

  8. #651
    Kmac5 KoryMac5's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Suicide is a very complex issue and also very individualistic...

    If we look at Japan their rates were actually down in the first few months of the pandemic and then went up by 7% percent in August...could be a honeymoon period or something else....time will tell.

    Rates overall have remained relatively unchanged in high income countries...I would imagine due to access to mental health care as counselors and therapists are still seeing clients during the pandemic.

    https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj....az&keytype=ref
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.

  9. #652
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Quick reminder - there has been a huge lag in reporting over the 4-day weekend. It falsely looks like there has been a decrease in cases and deaths - but expect to see those numbers catch back up and then some over the next few days. The 7 day averages towards the end of the week will tell the story.

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  11. #653
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Respectfully how does he know? And if his data are reliable why doesn’t the CDC do what Japan does, simply post the suicide numbers?
    The CDC does track suicide data but not sure if they have monthly numbers...CDC data can be a bit of a pain is sometimes, they use an algorithm to estimate numbers instead of real raw data...much like they estimate flu deaths.
    If you have a losing record at Reds games, please stop going.

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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Quote Originally Posted by Stray View Post
    Hill I will die on. We're either all essential and worth the risk or none of us are.
    Excellent.

  13. #655
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    You know, I'm just going to leave this here and whatever happens, happens.

    I can not believe that Rojo is still allowed to post here after posting a photo with a nude child (not a baby) less than two nights ago. This isn't my site, and the mods can do what they want, but if that kind of posting can go without banishment, I'm out. It was a fun, most of the time, 15 years. See some of you guys on twitter.

  14. #656
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You know, I'm just going to leave this here and whatever happens, happens.

    I can not believe that Rojo is still allowed to post here after posting a photo with a nude child (not a baby) less than two nights ago. This isn't my site, and the mods can do what they want, but if that kind of posting can go without banishment, I'm out. It was a fun, most of the time, 15 years. See some of you guys on twitter.
    I mean, I don’t care if you stay or leave, but I don’t remember seeing that. What was the context?

  15. #657
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Quote Originally Posted by BernieCarbo View Post
    I mean, I don’t care if you stay or leave, but I don’t remember seeing that. What was the context?
    It was a child running from soldiers. In response to someone saying kids are resilient. I think it’s a famous photo, but I don’t know it. Don’t care if it is. It was really messed up to post it on here, and I’m pretty pissed off it’s on my internet history now.

    The fact rojo hasn’t been banned because of it is pretty ****ed up IMHO. Should be a zero tolerance type of post.

    He even said “I’m probably going to get banned...”
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  16. #658
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Fun with statistics.

    A few months ago I read something about, I think, Denver's hospitals seeing a dramatic plunge in heart attack cases.

    I don't know how many deaths are due to lockdown. I don't think they're nothing, but I can't quantify it.

    Anyhow I was going to post on this (maybe I even did) but I did some research and came across something interesting which is kind of common sense: stats rarely follow an orderly pattern. For example, if an ER averages 5 heart attacks per week, they may go two weeks with no heart attack and a week with 30. That's the non-orderly way life unfolds.

    As baseball fans we've all noticed how a player will follow an MVP season with a "meh" season.

    To Covid: the headline death number is sloppy. I would disregard it. But that's not because I don't think Covid has killed people. All-cause mortality is up over the previous five-year average. But by how much I'm not sure. We're an aging population, as is most of the countries with high mortality rates. And there's the "dry tinder" and "pull forward" phenomena.

    Dry tinder means that if you've had abnormally low death rates for a couple of years -- say from a mild winter and low elderly death rates -- you're due for a "break out season". Sorry to be cruede.

    Pull forward means that a pathogen is simply cutting short the lives of people who weren't long for this wold anyhow.

    The result is that say we have a low-mortality winter, then a deadly couple of months and then another low-mortality winter, we're looking at something that's not quite an apocolypse.

    Yes, I'm not in a hurry for our elders to leave us -- seeing another spring -- another wedding, another birthday, another grandchild -- should be a goal.

    And I like to think there's a way of doing this without throwing away the lives of young people -- and old people.

    And has anyone thought to ask how old people think about this? That seems lost as we decide what we're "doing for them".

  17. #659
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    You know, I'm just going to leave this here and whatever happens, happens.

    I can not believe that Rojo is still allowed to post here after posting a photo with a nude child (not a baby) less than two nights ago.
    Yeah, her being nude was the straw.

  18. #660
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    Re: COVID-19 Part IX -Vaccine Time

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    The fact rojo hasn’t been banned because of it is pretty ****ed up IMHO. Should be a zero tolerance type of post.
    That's not why you want me banned.


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