Nick Krall: Shortstop, Pitching Are Reds' Priorities

[757690]

The top 100 folks would disagree. They’d argue it’s flawed to accept Reds’ fans love of their own prospect.

And based on what we saw last season, some Reds fan did overrate Garcia, at least in terms of readiness as a hitter.

Garcia proved he was MLB ready defensively, and I’ve seen quite a few guys on that Top 100 list with not much else. These list tend to favor guys who have a high likely hood of sticking in the majors, even if as a backup, and Garcia, imo, has that.

I mean, if Jose Peraza was on these lists year after year, Garcia should be as well.

[Kc61]

Garcia proved he was MLB ready defensively, and I’ve seen quite a few guys on that Top 100 list with not much else. These list tend to favor guys who have a high likely hood of sticking in the majors, even if as a backup, and Garcia, imo, has that.

I mean, if Jose Peraza was on these lists year after year, Garcia should be as well.

The top 100 prospect lists provide a view of - the 100 best prospects.

The lists aren’t definitive, they don’t define the player’s future, they make mistakes.

But Garcia is not a consensus highest-level prospect and the Reds shouldn’t structure their future assuming he’s a lock to be a top all around MLB shortstop.

[sdm24]

Angels
Mets
Phillies
White Sox

I can't imagine any of those teams if I'm Bauer.

Angels - They're simply boring. They have the best player on the planet and they're still boring. If I'm going SoCal, I'm going Padres.

Mets - I mean, they're the Mets.

Phillies - Of the four, I could see this one the most

White Sox - LaRussa? Really?

Also, Bauer just doesn't seem like a Yankees guy.

Good point about the White Sox. I just can't imagine a 76 year old La Russa embracing spin rates and letting Trevor be Trevor.
Disclaimer I really don't like La Russa. I hated how I felt he reacted every time you hit a Cardinal it was intentional and retribution was in order but if it was the other way around it should be obvious that it was not intentional.
In closing, screw Tony La Russa.

[RedTeamGo!]

The top 100 folks would disagree. They’d argue it’s flawed to accept Reds’ fans love of their own prospect.

And based on what we saw last season, some Reds fan did overrate Garcia, at least in terms of readiness as a hitter.

The idea I am a reds fan that falls in love with reds prospects is hilarious to me.

I always point to Taylor Trammell as my case-in-point with the flaws of top 100 lists. The experts refused to remove him from top 100 lists after 2019. That is absolutely absurd. Why would they refuse to do this? Because they don’t like admitting when they are wrong. Same goes for when obvious top 100 prospects don’t make the lists, like Garcia. If there is a player they never talk about on their podcasts or they didn’t put on their top 100 early they will not put them on. Garcia on the other hand had a very good 2019 at high A where he hit more doubles than anyone in the league and played very good defense while being very projectable. All year you hear scouts reporting he was legit and a future big league SS. All these top 100 lists are opinions of baseball writers. That’s it. I used to put a lot of stock in them. They are pretty worthless outside of the top 10 prospects or so. The actual baseball teams don’t care about them, and if they do, they are doing it wrong.

As for pointing towards his 68 at bats in 2020 after jumping from high A to the majors as anything resembling meaningful, give me a break.

[757690]

The top 100 prospect lists provide a view of - the 100 best prospects.

The lists aren’t definitive, they don’t define the player’s future, they make mistakes.

But Garcia is not a consensus highest-level prospect and the Reds shouldn’t structure their future assuming he’s a lock to be a top all around MLB shortstop.

I seriously hope the Reds don’t base any talent evaluation on any top 100 prospect list. I doubt they pay much attention to them.

[Kc61]

I seriously hope the Reds don’t base any talent evaluation on any top 100 prospect list. I doubt they pay much attention to them.

The Reds have a shortstop decision to make. It’s been suggested that only a very short veteran contract is acceptable because of Garcia. If Jose is driving that decision, you would like him to be generally considered among the best shortstop prospects in baseball.

[M2]

The Reds have a shortstop decision to make. It’s been suggested that only a very short veteran contract is acceptable because of Garcia. If Jose is driving that decision, you would like him to be generally considered among the best shortstop prospects in baseball.

We're in a year where those lists are completely useless. No one knows what the top 100 is or where anyone would be ranked if they had played a MiLB season. The evaluation that counts is what the Reds think Garcia's going to be. If they're sold, then they're looking for a quality one-year option (or multiple years they can move after 2021).

[Kc61]

We're in a year where those lists are completely useless. No one knows what the top 100 is or where anyone would be ranked if they had played a MiLB season. The evaluation that counts is what the Reds think Garcia's going to be. If they're sold, then they're looking for a quality one-year option (or multiple years they can move after 2021).

Reds can’t be ostrich-like. If their future shortstop isn’t a consensus high-level prospect, it’s something to consider. I’d feel much better about planning around Garcia if the accolades went further beyond Reds fans and Reds media.

[RedTeamGo!]

Reds can’t be ostrich-like. If their future shortstop is not a consensus top prospect, it’s something to consider.

They’re perfectly free to reject that view of Garcia, but they can’t ignore it. And I haven’t read much outside of Reds fans/writers viewing him as a sure shot.

Fangraphs top 100 from February (Garcia is ranked 82nd):

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-100-prospects/

82. Jose Garcia, SS, CIN Video
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba (CIN)
Age
21.9
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
175
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/40
55/60
35/50
60/60
60/60
70/70
Though likely to swing and miss a bunch, Garcia is a plus defensive shortstop with above-average power.

Between his lack of reps during the ’16-’17 Series Nacional in Cuba and the arduous process of defecting, followed by slowly working out for teams, then waiting for the 2018 season to start, Garcia played very little baseball for the several months leading up to last season and it showed when he finally put on a uniform. Then he had a breakout 2019 in the Florida State League (.280/.343/.436) and was watched closely by the whole industry throughout an Arizona Fall League assignment. If Garcia’s tools were installed in a 21-year-old college shortstop, he’d be very famous. Power, speed, arm strength, and flashy defense are all here, and Garcia has a chance to be a star if his approach isn’t his undoing.

[Kc61]

Fangraphs top 100 from February (Garcia is ranked 82nd):

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-100-prospects/

That’s good. I’ve read several from early this year that excluded Garcia, including top shortstop lists, but good to see Fangraphs thinks highly of him. The discussion explains why he might not be on some radar screens.

[M2]

Reds can’t be ostrich-like. If their future shortstop isn’t a consensus high-level prospect, it’s something to consider. I’d feel much better about planning around Garcia if the accolades went further beyond Reds fans and Reds media.

The Reds shouldn't waste a moment's thought on that.

[Bourgeois Zee]

The Reds shouldn't waste a moment's thought on that.

I love top 100 lists.

But they're not real evaluation tools at all. (Beyond how we and reporters see them in our own limited ways.) Teams massage lists all the time, and reporters tend to glom onto stories as if they're gospel. TeJay Antone was an outstanding rookie-- easily among the top 10 in the National League in terms of fWAR, and he was 12th on Cincinnati's prospect list last season. Devin Williams was ROY and among the most dominant relief arms in the game, and he wasn't even an afterthought in top 100 lists. Cristian Javier was barely inside Houston's top 10, yet he made several ROY lists.

Prospect lists are entertainment, and little beyond that.

[M2]

I love top 100 lists.

But they're not real evaluation tools at all. (Beyond how we and reporters see them in our own limited ways.) Teams massage lists all the time, and reporters tend to glom onto stories as if they're gospel. TeJay Antone was an outstanding rookie-- easily among the top 10 in the National League in terms of fWAR, and he was 12th on Cincinnati's prospect list last season. Devin Williams was ROY and among the most dominant relief arms in the game, and he wasn't even an afterthought in top 100 lists. Cristian Javier was barely inside Houston's top 10, yet he made several ROY lists.

Prospect lists are entertainment, and little beyond that.

I'd even put some stock in the lists argument in a normal year where we had a 2020 full of baseball. That didn't happen. The Reds are the only ones who can know what kind of progress Garcia made at Prasco. Obviously it was enough to call him up to the main team.

[mth123]

I'd even put some stock in the lists argument in a normal year where we had a 2020 full of baseball. That didn't happen. The Reds are the only ones who can know what kind of progress Garcia made at Prasco. Obviously it was enough to call him up to the main team.

Was it his progress or the fact that the entire infield wasn't cutting it defensively and subbing Garcia for Freddy was the only move available? The IF defense was awful last year. The worst I remember as a Red's fan since the mid-60s.

Put me down for adding talent to fill holes and worry about the Kids taking their spot when the time comes. There is no shortage of IF spots that need an upgrade. If the Reds acquire Didi, Semien or another vet, I don't think it will block Garcia if he is who we hope he is. 2B is always a spot where the veteran can move to.

[SidneySlicker]

Reds can’t be ostrich-like. If their future shortstop isn’t a consensus high-level prospect, it’s something to consider. I’d feel much better about planning around Garcia if the accolades went further beyond Reds fans and Reds media.

Exactly and here's another reality, you can never have too much talent. If the Reds can get Didi for 3-4 years without a major overpay, and Jose comes on like gang busters after a year or two, you simply have trade capital in in one of the two or roster flexibility with the two as both Garcia and Didi can play Second base.