Reds acquiring Jeff Hoffman and Case Williams from the Rockies for Robert Stephenson

[Bruce Berenyi]

the next guy hoffman

[dougdirt]

I'm viewing the development plan with Hoffman similar to Tejay Antone. Antone was a fairly non-descript minor leaguer numbers wise that the Reds kept working with and told us he was going to be great at the major league level and he was.

Yes, they have worked with him briefly in the off-season, but its different when you are working together 365 days a year, with weekly programs, check points, video analysis, feedback. Hoffman never got this kind of in season program.

Anyways, the Reds development staff sees something in them, and am interested to find out if they can find a repeatable pattern of finding under the radar guys like this and shine them up into real major leaguers. If they are right, again, its going to be a tell tale sign of fun things to come with this off field staff.

Where did the Reds ever say he was going to be great?

And he's not at all like Tejay Antone, who went out and found 5 MPH of velocity in one offseason doing something that he tried on his own - not something the Reds suggested to him. Sure, if Jeff Hoffman goes out this winter and comes into spring training sitting at 102 MPH because he also picked up 5 MPH in one offseason out of nowhere, let's start making the Tejay Antone comparisons.

[Kc61]

I'm viewing the development plan with Hoffman similar to Tejay Antone. Antone was a fairly non-descript minor leaguer numbers wise that the Reds kept working with and told us he was going to be great at the major league level and he was.

Yes, they have worked with him briefly in the off-season, but its different when you are working together 365 days a year, with weekly programs, check points, video analysis, feedback. Hoffman never got this kind of in season program.

Anyways, the Reds development staff sees something in them, and am interested to find out if they can find a repeatable pattern of finding under the radar guys like this and shine them up into real major leaguers. If they are right, again, its going to be a tell tale sign of fun things to come with this off field staff.

The difference is that Hoffman began pitching in the majors in 2016, has 230 major league innings, and a 6.40 ERA. He’ll be 28 in January. He’s a turnaround candidate who should be in his prime.

Antone’s trajectory has been far more typical of a young pitcher developing. I don’t see much comparison, frankly.

I can see a parallel with Sims, but again Lucas was able to work with Reds’ coaching in the minors before coming up again as a reliever.

[dougdirt]

The difference is that Hoffman began pitching in the majors in 2016, has 230 major league innings, and a 6.40 ERA. He’ll be 28 in January. He’s a turnaround candidate who should be in his prime.

Antone’s trajectory has been far more typical of a young pitcher developing. I don’t see much comparison, frankly.

I can see a parallel with Sims, but again Lucas was able to work with Reds’ coaching in the minors before coming up again as a reliever.

And Sims was actually good in the minors before being acquired. And he was significantly younger.

[JFLegal]

Where did the Reds ever say he was going to be great?

And he's not at all like Tejay Antone, who went out and found 5 MPH of velocity in one offseason doing something that he tried on his own - not something the Reds suggested to him. Sure, if Jeff Hoffman goes out this winter and comes into spring training sitting at 102 MPH because he also picked up 5 MPH in one offseason out of nowhere, let's start making the Tejay Antone comparisons.

i was just about to ask patrick bateman the same thing. did i miss the press release when the reds declared that tejay antone would be great one day?

[Patrick Bateman]

Where did the Reds ever say he was going to be great?

And he's not at all like Tejay Antone, who went out and found 5 MPH of velocity in one offseason doing something that he tried on his own - not something the Reds suggested to him. Sure, if Jeff Hoffman goes out this winter and comes into spring training sitting at 102 MPH because he also picked up 5 MPH in one offseason out of nowhere, let's start making the Tejay Antone comparisons.

Kyle Boddy repeatedly mentioned Antone as a guy considered to be one of the Reds best pithing prospects when he was hardly on anyone else's radar, and on record as crediting the Reds front office for changing his mindset and helping him uncover the velocity.

Hoffman, may have a different road to get their beyond velocity, but I'm sure they have some ideas of how they are going to change his pitch mix, approach, and what his raw stuff might do outside of Colorado.

For the record, Hoffman is literally 11 months older than Antone. He was just on the radar and had velocity earlier in his career. No, Antone's progression was not that of a typical prospect. Based on age and minor league contributions, he should not have been on the radar as a player seen as a candidate to perform well at the major league level in 2020.

These two are hardly twin brothers, but I'm suggesting that there is a path for players with skill, and lacking strong performance, to be tweaked in seemingly small ways with dramatic changes in the output. The Reds see Hoffman as a candidate... that was news to me, and I'm interested to see if lightning can strike twice.

[JaxRed]

Whether or not there was offsetting values in half of it, that evened up overall, I view this as two trades. Stephenson for Hoffman and Hannah for Williams.

Stephenson for Williams - Two guys out of options that the teams had lost patience with. Rockies probably feel BobSteve will be better in Coors. I think they might return him to rotation. Reds have some experience with Hoffman through Driveline and think they might be able to fix him.

Hannah for Williams - I had ZERO excitement ever about Hannah. So for me this is a plus. I'm a big believer in not using picks in first 2-3 rounds on HS pitchers. So to me this is a great way to grab one you like. Flip a low ceiling OF for a high ceiling, sturdy kid with big arm, who's already shown an affinity for spin rate work.

[podgejeff_]

Remember when Hoffman and Aaron Sanchez were going to front the Blue Jays rotation for years? Good times. And something to consider when you're worried about whether to trade pitching "prospects."

The pitching has to come from somewhere. And if a pitching prospect does pan out you have the most valuable asset in baseball.

We just turned Tyler Mahle and Tejay Antone into gold from practically nothing.

[podgejeff_]

With all due respect to what Cueto did in the minors.... he was no Tony Cingrani.

Cingrani had a 1.67 ERA in the minors with 340 strikeouts in 263.2 innings. Cueto never had a single stop along the minor league chain with an ERA under 2.59 (he was slightly younger than Cingrani at each level, though).

I just remember seeing Cingrani's results and never being terribly excited about his future. Bailey and Cueto though? They were obviously aces in the making the entire time in my head (so was Stephenson for that matter).

But you're right, you can't argue those stats.

[podgejeff_]

If there's even a chance we can make another Lucas Sims out of Jeff Hoffman, sign me up. Stephenson was getting DFA'd regardless.

And an extra pick in the 2020 draft is just fine by me. Clearly the Reds really wanted this kid.

I don't question our pitching development anymore. At this point I think we've somehow become a leader in pitching development. Strange times with the Reds.

[Kc61]

If there's even a chance we can make another Lucas Sims out of Jeff Hoffman, sign me up. Stephenson was getting DFA'd regardless.

And an extra pick in the 2020 draft is just fine by me. Clearly the Reds really wanted this kid.

I don't question our pitching development anymore. At this point I think we've somehow become a leader in pitching development. Strange times with the Reds.

With no options remaining, Hoffman’s turnaround will likely be tested in big league regular season games. Games that count.

Spring training performance may be relied upon but is essentially meaningless.

Enjoy.

[Patrick Bateman]

Would Jake Arrieta be a better comp developmental arch wise?

He always had "Stuff" but little idea what to do with.

Was a trainwreck in the majors and very medicore in AAA until switching organizaions and "randomly" became an elite pitcher at age 28. Similar story of being stuck in a directionless organization with little ability to develop pitchers. Colorado is a better organization than Baltimore was at the time, however, Colorado's atmosphere is a unique challenge that not everyone is able to overcome.

We definitely cant expect or even see Arrieta as a realistic outcome, but there are many levels beneath that which could be successful for a guy with Hoffman's talents.

[klw]

the reds wanted case williams so bad that they passed on him in the third round? i mean, i've never heard of the kid so maybe he's great. but if they targeted him, weird move to pass him over as late as the third round of a six-round draft.

big deal? no. just found that odd.

Ability to fit him not the money pool could have been a factor

[Kc61]

Would Jake Arrieta be a better comp developmental arch wise?

He always had "Stuff" but little idea what to do with.

Was a trainwreck in the majors and very medicore in AAA until switching organizaions and "randomly" became an elite pitcher at age 28. Similar story of being stuck in a directionless organization with little ability to develop pitchers. Colorado is a better organization than Baltimore was at the time, however, Colorado's atmosphere is a unique challenge that not everyone is able to overcome.

We definitely cant expect or even see Arrieta as a realistic outcome, but there are many levels beneath that which could be successful for a guy with Hoffman's talents.

Arrieta was acquired during a rebuild for the Cubs. Cubs lost 101 games in 2012. Arrieta was acquired in July 2013, a year in which Cubs lost 96.

If the Reds were in a rebuild, losing about 100 games, I’d have no problem acquiring Hoffman and trying to “fix” him at the big league level.

But the Reds are attempting to contend.

[Coopdaddy67]

But the Reds are attempting to contend.

That's TBD. If Bauer exits and Gray is traded for prospects, you're basically surrendering before the upcoming season. Then it's just a question of how far they're willing to go.

If you're going to try and rebuild using Gray, Castillo, etc. as trade pieces, I'm okay with it provided that there's an actual plan in place this time. The only thing that will anger me is a half-in approach, which they've done many times over the past 20 years.

Don't make decisions based on trying appease fans, maximize ticket sales while trying to retool, etc. Winning fixes short-term problems. Make decisions that put the Reds in the best position to win in 2021 and beyond.