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Thread: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

  1. #211
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Also who is better than him available on the FA market now for that price?.
    That’s the big question, and the Reds and other teams are betting that there is going to be a correction in the free agent market and they will be able to sign guys at much lower prices than normal.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans


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  3. #212
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    The Reds were one year too early in going on their FA spending spree, in hindsight of course. They had to do it though considering it was Bauer’s walk year.

    Unfortunately, now the Moustakas and Castellanos contracts look particularly burdensome, as those guys would likely make half as much as they will over the next three years if they were on the open market now. Still, I’d rather see them take risks like that and be in the game whether than waiting on the sidelines forever.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    They absolutely have the money. They always have the money. The question always is, are they willing to spend it?
    I can't really agree. They have a finite amount of revenue and resources, and it was great restrained last year.

    Yeah I get that the rich owners are greedy and cheap, and they will do anything they can to keep from sharing money. But I don't get the argument that X team or owner has some unlimited stash of cash and they can just tap into a little of it and win the WS.

    There is virtually company or person in the world that has some unlimited budget and amount of money. They have a certain amount of revenue and cash that they can use. And companies like the Reds lost a ton of projected revenue last year and project to loose quite a bit next year too. I imagine they have some ideas what that might look like, and therefore a target number to get under. It's probably lower than the number they are at right now.

    They may have to cut expenses, to survive as a company and business.

    Or maybe they have a stash ready to deploy and are ready to be savvy and leverage the situation. But I think this is less likely.

    I don't really care about excuses, and that's not my point. I am just trying to be realistic in my expectations for team building over this offseason.

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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    The Reds dramatically increased payroll at the worst possible time. Just before the virus hit and the season was dramatically curtailed.

    I’m not surprised they’ve decided to cut payroll, nor do I blame anyone. It was all unforeseen.

    Hope is they don’t capitulate but rather use this as an opportunity. Maybe get a bit younger and cheaper; but also more athletic, better defensively, and maybe some new good young arms.

    Replacing Trevor Bauer would be nearly impossible, that’s a likely severe blow. But Reds could come out of it with a pretty good team, better poised for the long term. Or they could just revert to the days of mediocrity.
    Last edited by Kc61; 12-03-2020 at 02:05 PM.

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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    I can't really agree. They have a finite amount of revenue and resources, and it was great restrained last year.

    Yeah I get that the rich owners are greedy and cheap, and they will do anything they can to keep from sharing money. But I don't get the argument that X team or owner has some unlimited stash of cash and they can just tap into a little of it and win the WS.

    There is virtually company or person in the world that has some unlimited budget and amount of money. They have a certain amount of revenue and cash that they can use. And companies like the Reds lost a ton of projected revenue last year and project to loose quite a bit next year too. I imagine they have some ideas what that might look like, and therefore a target number to get under. It's probably lower than the number they are at right now.

    They may have to cut expenses, to survive as a company and business.

    Or maybe they have a stash ready to deploy and are ready to be savvy and leverage the situation. But I think this is less likely.

    I don't really care about excuses, and that's not my point. I am just trying to be realistic in my expectations for team building over this offseason.
    The Reds are worth over a billion dollars. If they wanted to spend more, they could. It’s not unlimited, but it’s definitely more than what they are telling us.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The Reds are worth over a billion dollars. If they wanted to spend more, they could. It’s not unlimited, but it’s definitely more than what they are telling us.
    Just because you are worth something doesnt mean you have that in cash. I own a building that is worth 1 million, but I do not have 1 million in free cash laying around. The worth of something only really matters when you go to sell it. Worth of something does not equal cash flow.

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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by jwdoc77 View Post
    Just because you are worth something doesnt mean you have that in cash. I own a building that is worth 1 million, but I do not have 1 million in free cash laying around. The worth of something only really matters when you go to sell it. Worth of something does not equal cash flow.
    Business leverage against assets all the time. You may not have $1M, but if you wanted an extra $100K, you should be able to access that easily by borrowing against this building.

    If the Reds wanted to spend an extra $20M, they easily could get it.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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  12. #218
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Lets not twist things around to fit the narrative. I like Casali and all but he is a part-time catcher who hits lefties well but not a "800 OPS catcher".
    Curt Casali last season--> 865 OPS catcher

    Curt Casali, Red career--> 785 OPS

    Since becoming a Red (2018), Casali's had almost 500 ABs. He's been six percent above league average in those ABs. That ranks 10th in MLB among catchers (min. 450 ABs). His fWAR over that period, despite only playing part-time, is 28th among all MLB catchers. It also doubles Barnhart's WAR, even though Barnhart's had almost double the playing time. Casali is a better piece than Barnhart. He's also a cheaper piece than Barnhart. It ultimately doesn't matter who he hits off-- what matters is his production when he hits. And he's undoubtedly been productive-- and much more productive than Barnhart when given the time to show it.

    He is the best catcher who was non-tendered and the third-best catcher on the free agent market behind McCann and Realmuto. Bradley was projected to get $5M in arbitration money. He was the best relief pitcher non-tendered and is among the better free agent pitchers available now. Goodwin wasn't the best CF non-tendered, but he's a league average guy at that position-- and he was projected to make around $3M.

    All three were let go for nothing.

    To put it another way, the Reds are a much worse team now than they were two days ago. They also have more holes to fill. Now, maybe they'll do that through free agency or trades. Maybe they'll find a plethora of guys who will contribute who have otherwise been ignored or looked over. Maybe it'll take getting rid of three good pieces to take on more talented pieces at other positions. Maybe Krall has a plan worked out. If so, it's a novel approach that few in the game have ever tried.

    Getting rid of talented players with no return is, IMO, a poor plan.

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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The Reds dramatically increased payroll at the worst possible time. Just before the virus hit and the season was dramatically curtailed.

    I’m not surprised they’ve decided to cut payroll, nor do I blame anyone. It was all unforeseen.

    Hope is they don’t capitulate but rather use this as an opportunity. Maybe get a bit younger and cheaper; but also more athletic, better defensively, and maybe some new good young arms.

    Replacing Trevor Bauer would be nearly impossible, that’s a likely severe blow. But Reds could come out of it with a pretty good team, better poised for the long term. Or they could just revert to the days of mediocrity.
    I wouldn't mind a tear-down/rebuild at this point, so long as they do it right and come out of it better than they came out in 2016.

    That said, Castellini isn't getting any younger. And he wants a WS championship for the Reds. So...we'll see.
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Business leverage against assets all the time. You may not have $1M, but if you wanted an extra $100K, you should be able to access that easily by borrowing against this building.

    If the Reds wanted to spend an extra $20M, they easily could get it.
    "Borrow" is kinda the point. That isn't free money. Unless they are selling some of their stake in the team to free up cash to use, the value of the team doesn't enter much into operation costs. They have to work with the revenue and capital they have right now.

    I admit, I am probably just a sucker for taking this position. Screw the owners, they should spend big. I am onboard with that.

    But I don't think it's happening.

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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    "Borrow" is kinda the point. That isn't free money. Unless they are selling some of their stake in the team to free up cash to use, the value of the team doesn't enter much into operation costs. They have to work with the revenue and capital they have right now.

    I admit, I am probably just a sucker for taking this position. Screw the owners, they should spend big. I am onboard with that.

    But I don't think it's happening.
    MLB teams are cash cows. Borrowing against them has little to no risk. Other businesses borrow against assets all the time, in fact, it’s considered essential for growth.

    On top of that, no team has ever opened its books, so we don’t know if they really are strapped for cash or not.

    In 2019 and 2020, the Reds decided to spend more money, they upped payroll by $20M in 2019, then another $40M in 2020. Where did that money come from? Definitely not revenue, as attendence was down for many year prior. They had done this before, raising payroll when there was no additional revenue.

    When they want to spend more money, they do.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    That said, Castellini isn't getting any younger. And he wants a WS championship for the Reds. So...we'll see.
    If he truly wanted to win, he'd have gone all-in when Votto signed his long-term extension and was the best player in baseball not named Mike Trout.

    Every owner wants to win, but not necessarily if it gets in the way of maximizing profits.

    Being a Cincinnati sports fan all my entire life, I have very little faith in owners and don't expect that to change. Seems like the only time they spend at all is when fans have had enough and are on the verge of abandoning the franchise.

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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Curt Casali last season--> 865 OPS catcher

    Curt Casali, Red career--> 785 OPS

    Since becoming a Red (2018), Casali's had almost 500 ABs. He's been six percent above league average in those ABs. That ranks 10th in MLB among catchers (min. 450 ABs). His fWAR over that period, despite only playing part-time, is 28th among all MLB catchers. It also doubles Barnhart's WAR, even though Barnhart's had almost double the playing time. Casali is a better piece than Barnhart. He's also a cheaper piece than Barnhart. It ultimately doesn't matter who he hits off-- what matters is his production when he hits. And he's undoubtedly been productive-- and much more productive than Barnhart when given the time to show it.

    He is the best catcher who was non-tendered and the third-best catcher on the free agent market behind McCann and Realmuto. Bradley was projected to get $5M in arbitration money. He was the best relief pitcher non-tendered and is among the better free agent pitchers available now. Goodwin wasn't the best CF non-tendered, but he's a league average guy at that position-- and he was projected to make around $3M.

    All three were let go for nothing.

    To put it another way, the Reds are a much worse team now than they were two days ago. They also have more holes to fill. Now, maybe they'll do that through free agency or trades. Maybe they'll find a plethora of guys who will contribute who have otherwise been ignored or looked over. Maybe it'll take getting rid of three good pieces to take on more talented pieces at other positions. Maybe Krall has a plan worked out. If so, it's a novel approach that few in the game have ever tried.

    Getting rid of talented players with no return is, IMO, a poor plan.
    Sure, if Casali could get 500 AB's a year against only LHP then he is certainly a "800 OPS catcher", however reality is that a majority of pitchers are right handed, and Casali as shown himself to be merely mediocre against RHP. But like I said, it should be the Tyler Stephenson show going forward, and since we locked Tucker into a guaranteed contract, Casali was the casualty since his money was not guaranteed. I'd prefer Casali as the backup to Stephenson, but the contract situations ruined that. And we certainly shouldn't hold onto Casali and block Stephenson, that is a net negative.

    Can we replace Goodwin for less than $3M? Likely so, thus he doesn't have any value and we appropriately cut him loose, it doesn't matter that we didn't get anything for him. He is not a league average CFer, he's going to turn 30 and has 1 season with 400+ PA's. He is a league average backup.

    The only hole left by these moves is replacing Bradley. That's the one non-tender that surprised me a bit if he is in fact in line for $5M. The Reds aren't much worse, Stephenson is the best catcher on the roster, Goodwin is easily replaced, Bradley's spot makes the bullpen worse.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 12-03-2020 at 03:34 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  20. #224
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Curt Casali last season--> 865 OPS catcher

    Curt Casali, Red career--> 785 OPS

    Since becoming a Red (2018), Casali's had almost 500 ABs. He's been six percent above league average in those ABs. That ranks 10th in MLB among catchers (min. 450 ABs). His fWAR over that period, despite only playing part-time, is 28th among all MLB catchers. It also doubles Barnhart's WAR, even though Barnhart's had almost double the playing time. Casali is a better piece than Barnhart. He's also a cheaper piece than Barnhart. It ultimately doesn't matter who he hits off-- what matters is his production when he hits. And he's undoubtedly been productive-- and much more productive than Barnhart when given the time to show it.

    He is the best catcher who was non-tendered and the third-best catcher on the free agent market behind McCann and Realmuto. Bradley was projected to get $5M in arbitration money. He was the best relief pitcher non-tendered and is among the better free agent pitchers available now. Goodwin wasn't the best CF non-tendered, but he's a league average guy at that position-- and he was projected to make around $3M.

    All three were let go for nothing.

    To put it another way, the Reds are a much worse team now than they were two days ago. They also have more holes to fill. Now, maybe they'll do that through free agency or trades. Maybe they'll find a plethora of guys who will contribute who have otherwise been ignored or looked over. Maybe it'll take getting rid of three good pieces to take on more talented pieces at other positions. Maybe Krall has a plan worked out. If so, it's a novel approach that few in the game have ever tried.

    Getting rid of talented players with no return is, IMO, a poor plan.
    This is all a bit dramatic. The Reds let go of a catcher they didn't need, their 5th outfielder and solid middle reliever.

    Casali was the best of the bunch, and you can bet that Krall attempted to move Barnhart's contract instead of non-tendering him. It's unfortunate that it's playing out this way for Casali, but it's a good thing that the Reds have a younger, cheaper, and hopefully better option in Tyler Stephenson. Also good news is that it means we'll see Tyler on opening day, and the Reds won't be toying around with "more seasoning" or service time manipulation.

    Bradley is a solid middle relief option who looked like a nice fit in the Reds plans. They thought he was too expensive. There will likely be better deals. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I trust our guys to identify the right bullpen pieces and think they can get a couple of useful pieces for $6MM total better than Bradley and a league-minimum guy. Time will tell.

    Goodwin was flat out bad last year. He doesn't really fit any clear team need. I'd rather have either a LHH with a legit hit tool, or a true CF backup, Goodwin was kind of bad at being either of those things.

    If the Reds are serious about bringing in a difference-making SS, these moves were likely necessary. And I'm fine with that, as none of these guys were close to being difference-makers for the Reds in 2021.

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  22. #225
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    MLB teams are cash cows. Borrowing against them has little to no risk. Other businesses borrow against assets all the time, in fact, it’s considered essential for growth.

    On top of that, no team has ever opened its books, so we don’t know if they really are strapped for cash or not.

    In 2019 and 2020, the Reds decided to spend more money, they upped payroll by $20M in 2019, then another $40M in 2020. Where did that money come from? Definitely not revenue, as attendence was down for many year prior. They had done this before, raising payroll when there was no additional revenue.

    When they want to spend more money, they do.
    In this particular situation, borrowing against assets to spend $ on payroll above what cash flow would suggest has no obvious ROI as there is minimal incremental revenue to be earning right now through higher wins, including playoffs, with potentially no butts in the seats. That loan is ultimately just going to be paid directly out of the owner's pockets (as this year clearly with minimal attendance teams aren't going to be making profits in the first place). Could owners afford it? In theory yes, but ultimately most organizations at least attempt to run these things like legitimate businesses, and this is why you are universally seeing teams non-tendering guys left and right, as we are going to see wins available on the free agent market at rock bottom prices relative to prior years based on what the comfort level for owners to lose money to buy wins looks like. We are in new territory here.


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