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Thread: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

  1. #226
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    This is all a bit dramatic. The Reds let go of a catcher they didn't need, their 5th outfielder and solid middle reliever.
    I disagree with your summary.

    They let go of their best catcher, a league average outfielder, and an exceptional middle reliever for nothing.

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  4. #227
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    While I don't think Casali and Goodwin deserved or really should have been cut, I can at least see the reasoning. They weren't going to get all that many ABs and the potential for equal or better options will likely be scattered around baseball.

    The Bradley one really bugs me though. He's almost certainly going to get more than 1 year/$5 mil on the open market. And the Reds gave up some decent prospects to land him. I can respect the "I trust them to ID effective arms" take, but given the Reds issues with relievers the past few seasons that's a pretty big huge leap of faith that I'm not prepared to take. Maybe they're right and Bradley goes full David Hernandez next season, but it feels to me like it's just being cheap.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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  6. #228
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I disagree with your summary.

    They let go of their best catcher, a league average outfielder, and an exceptional middle reliever for nothing.
    Goodwin was not a league average OF last year. You don’t pay 5th OFs $3 million a year. Come on now. And I like Goodwin.

    Bradley was good the couple years before 2020. His velocity plummeted last year. With that said, I would have kept him. I think cutting him was probably the dumbest decision.

    Casali is good. At the end of the day he’s a solid backup catcher that was blocking Tyler Stephenson. Barnhart cannot hit and I have wanted him gone for years but he’s excellent defensively. If Stephenson can get his bat going this year Barnhart will be a very solid backup C. Time to move on from Casali.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  7. #229
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Goodwin was not a league average OF last year. You don’t pay 5th OFs $3 million a year. Come on now. And I like Goodwin.
    Last year, Goodwin had 50 ABs in Cincinnati. 50. Come on, indeed. If you combine his last three seasons, he's a league average(ish) bat. He's a league average(ish) CF defender. That has some value.

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Bradley was good the couple years before 2020. His velocity plummeted last year. With that said, I would have kept him. I think cutting him was probably the dumbest decision.
    Again, last season wasn't a clear enough sample to determine anything. Bradley pitched a total of 18 IP, five with the Reds. Ultimately, those peripherals should be taken with a massive grain of salt. (Now, the alternative is obviously if the Reds saw something after they acquired Bradley that indicated he couldn't get to his previous level. But even with his diminished stuff, Bradley found a way to put up superior peripherals and effective innings.)

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Casali is good. At the end of the day he’s a solid backup catcher that was blocking Tyler Stephenson. Barnhart cannot hit and I have wanted him gone for years but he’s excellent defensively. If Stephenson can get his bat going this year Barnhart will be a very solid backup C. Time to move on from Casali.
    But see, he didn't have to be blocking Stephenson. They could have jettisoned Tucker Barnhart. Pitchers liked pitching to Casali just as much (and some of them more) than they did Barnhart. Why pick the lesser player with the more expensive contract? Because you like the balance of LH and RH?
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 12-03-2020 at 04:19 PM.

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  9. #230
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    In this particular situation, borrowing against assets to spend $ on payroll above what cash flow would suggest has no obvious ROI as there is minimal incremental revenue to be earning right now through higher wins, including playoffs, with potentially no butts in the seats. That loan is ultimately just going to be paid directly out of the owner's pockets (as this year clearly with minimal attendance teams aren't going to be making profits in the first place). Could owners afford it? In theory yes, but ultimately most organizations at least attempt to run these things like legitimate businesses, and this is why you are universally seeing teams non-tendering guys left and right, as we are going to see wins available on the free agent market at rock bottom prices relative to prior years based on what the comfort level for owners to lose money to buy wins looks like. We are in new territory here.
    Good points, however, MLB francises aren’t like normal businesses. Even ignoring the tax exempt status, franchises are reliable money makers, especially sports franchises.

    We’ve never seen their books so we have no idea what their profit/loss numbers are. But we do know that they made the same TV/Radio money last year as a normal year, and then even more in the expanded playoffs. They didn’t have attendance, but they forced the players to take less salary to make up for that.

    They can’t have it both ways, cry poor and force the players to accept reduced salaries, then also cry poor in the off season.

    I have no doubt teams have plenty of money, but are taking advantage of this situation to cut salaries. And it stinks, imo.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  10. #231
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    While I don't think Casali and Goodwin deserved or really should have been cut, I can at least see the reasoning. They weren't going to get all that many ABs and the potential for equal or better options will likely be scattered around baseball.

    The Bradley one really bugs me though. He's almost certainly going to get more than 1 year/$5 mil on the open market. And the Reds gave up some decent prospects to land him. I can respect the "I trust them to ID effective arms" take, but given the Reds issues with relievers the past few seasons that's a pretty big huge leap of faith that I'm not prepared to take. Maybe they're right and Bradley goes full David Hernandez next season, but it feels to me like it's just being cheap.
    Reds have generally been cheap about the bullpen. So I wasn’t surprised they cut Bradley loose in a “cut payroll” off-season. Lucas Sims can probably be the 8th inning guy teaming with Iggy. Antone (still see him as a reliever) and Garrett can also be late inning options.

    So it may not be a tragedy, and maybe a Santillan or somebody can add pen depth. But again, the issue is whether and how they re-invest the money. If they use freed-up cash to address other needs, fine. If they just stop spending and let the roster significantly decline, not so fine.
    Last edited by Kc61; 12-03-2020 at 04:18 PM.

  11. #232
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    While I don't think Casali and Goodwin deserved or really should have been cut, I can at least see the reasoning. They weren't going to get all that many ABs and the potential for equal or better options will likely be scattered around baseball.
    If they sign those players-- or even come close-- I will freely admit that Krall's plan will work. Letting fairly valuable players go without recompense is generally, IMO, a poor move. If he adds better pieces-- an elite SS, an arm better than Bradley's in the 'pen, a starting pitcher, perhaps-- I can see this viewpoint.

    I doubt that will happen.

    I suspect, as has been posted by other guys on the thread, they'll sign Andrelton Simmons or another stopgap guy for SS. Semien and Gregorious will be too expensive, and Lindor and Story moreso. Castellini is, IMO, getting cheap. At this stage of team-building, it's exactly the wrong thing to do. (IMO)

  12. #233
    Probably not Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Good points, however, MLB francises aren’t like normal businesses. Even ignoring the tax exempt status, franchises are reliable money makers, especially sports franchises.

    We’ve never seen their books so we have no idea what their profit/loss numbers are. But we do know that they made the same TV/Radio money last year as a normal year, and then even more in the expanded playoffs. They didn’t have attendance, but they forced the players to take less salary to make up for that.

    They can’t have it both ways, cry poor and force the players to accept reduced salaries, then also cry poor in the off season.

    I have no doubt teams have plenty of money, but are taking advantage of this situation to cut salaries. And it stinks, imo.
    100% right, it is abnormal.

    But we also know that whatever profit they are used to getting, and we dont know how much that is, they are getting a ton less, and if not, going to be taking losses this year. We know they historically have trended towards giving the players around 45-55% of revenues in a given year through various forms of player compensation, and that's what is given in a free market. That's how the 31 owners seem comfortable running things fnancially.

    So if owners are going to run this thing in similar terms, even if they give out 55-60% of revenues to players, we are going to see a significant market correction on salaries, and expect very few are going to "invest in losses" in the way being proposed here.

  13. #234
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Bobby Nightengale
    @nightengalejr

    Kyle Farmer agreed to a split contract. He'll make $640K in the big leagues, $175k if he's in the minors. #Reds

  14. #235
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    One thing I'd be demanding in the new CBA if I was the MLBPA is if a team waives a player it can't re-sign him for a year. This business of working around the arbitration rules to slash a guy's salary needs to be stopped. Teams ought to be made to weigh whether they want to lose the player.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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  16. #236
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Last year, Goodwin had 50 ABs in Cincinnati. 50. Come on, indeed. If you combine his last three seasons, he's a league average(ish) bat. He's a league average(ish) CF defender. That has some value.


    But see, he didn't have to be blocking Stephenson. They could have jettisoned Tucker Barnhart. Pitchers liked pitching to Casali just as much (and some of them more) than they did Barnhart. Why pick the lesser player with the more expensive contract? Because you like the balance of LH and RH?
    The Reds already have Castellanos, Senzel, Winker, Shogo, Payton, and Aquino in the mix in the outfield. Is adding a league average backup bat into that fray for $3M worth it? No.

    The Reds can't jettison Tucker Barnhart without paying his salary, his contract is guaranteed. So if you jettison Tucker instead of Casali, you aren't saving any money by getting rid of a player. It was either:

    Tucker + TySteve for $4M + TySteves minimum salary
    Casali + TySteve for $6M + TySteves minimum salary

    If the players were really deemed to be that valuable, the Reds would have found willing trade partners and at least got something in return.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  17. #237
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    One thing I'd be demanding in the new CBA if I was the MLBPA is if a team waives a player it can't re-sign him for a year. This business of working around the arbitration rules to slash a guy's salary needs to be stopped. Teams ought to be made to weigh whether they want to lose the player.
    On the surface of it, this seems like a way for the team to cheat the player out of what he has earned. Although I understand the need to protect the player, I'm not sure this is the right solution. The player who is not offered arbitration becomes a free agent. He is not compelled to sign with his original team at a lower price. The best offer, however, could come from his former team. Why preclude the player from signing with that team.

    A team wishing to retain a player, but does not offer arbitration is making a judgement that the player's market value and value to original team is less than the likely arbitration award. It's a gamble for the team. This year could be a one-off because COVID has reduced market values. It is easier to take that gamble this year.

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  19. #238
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    On the surface of it, this seems like a way for the team to cheat the player out of what he has earned. Although I understand the need to protect the player, I'm not sure this is the right solution. The player who is not offered arbitration becomes a free agent. He is not compelled to sign with his original team at a lower price. The best offer, however, could come from his former team. Why preclude the player from signing with that team.

    A team wishing to retain a player, but does not offer arbitration is making a judgement that the player's market value and value to original team is less than the likely arbitration award. It's a gamble for the team. This year could be a one-off because COVID has reduced market values. It is easier to take that gamble this year.
    I expect the lesson teams will take away from this is don't pick up arbitration for anyone but your top players, flood the market every winter and get veteran talents cheap. Works like a charm if everyone's doing it. I'm not sure what the structural fix for it is beyond taking the original team out of the mix for obtaining that player's services. You do cut his market by 3.33%, but I suspect teams will be more hesitant to send players packing when they'd otherwise like to keep them. Certainly would make it riskier to count on everyone else cutting loose quality players, which seems to be the key. Kind of breaks up the wink-and-nod collusion this requires.
    Last edited by M2; 12-03-2020 at 10:50 PM.
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  21. #239
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    glad they signed farmer who else would swing at a ball a foot over his head with the bases loaded and nobody out

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  23. #240
    he/him *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I expect the lessons teams will take away from this is don't pick up arbitration for anyone but your top players, flood the market every winter and get veteran talents cheap. Works like a charm if everyone's doing it. I'm not sure what the structural fix for it is beyond taking the original team out of the mix for obtaining that player's services. You do cut his market by 3.33%, but I suspect teams will be more hesitant to send players packing when they'd otherwise like to keep them. Certainly would make it riskier to count on everyone else cutting loose quality players, which seems to be the key. Kind of breaks up the wind-and-nod collusion this requires.
    I thought I saw a tweet yesterday that there are actually less non-tendered players this offseason than last. Maybe somebody can correct me if I'm wrong? If so, this seems like something we're overhyping as Reds fans since they non-tendered so many players. I just don't think many of the players non-tendered yesterday would have been offered arbitration if your rule had been in place, and it's a non-zero unfavorable impact on the players' negotiating ability if you remove their previous team from the bidding. If the previous team wasn't going to be part of the bidding they wouldn't be impacted by your rule since they would non-tender either way, right?


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