Non-tender situation and moves for 2020-21

[Kc61]

Non-tender deadline is this coming week, Wednesday December 2. It’s expected that, with tighter budgets this off-season, a large number of arb-eligible players may be non-tendered.

MLBTR’s non-tender candidate list includes Reds Casali (projected at $1.8 million) and Goodwin (projected at $2.7 million). The other Reds arb-eligible players (not on that list) are Bradley, Castillo, Garrett, Lorenzen, Mahle, Winker.

There could be trades before Wednesday with teams trying to “get something” for non-tender candidates. The Robert Stephenson trade falls into this category.

Of course, non-tenders expand the free agent list. Reds might prefer to shop from this group which, on balance, may be cheaper.

MBTR’s list of non-tender candidates includes some big-name players, including Cubs Kris Bryant (projection $18.6 million) and Kyle Schwarber (projected $7.9 million).

[Wonderful Monds]

I want whatever MLBTR is smoking that they think Kris Bryant could get non tendered

[mth123]

I'm guessing the only red is Goodwin. Stephenbson would have been I think. There is a chance they could agree to a deal uf the player is averse to being dumped into a flooded market. If Goodwin would sign for a couple million, he's a keeper, but at $4 or $5 Million, I'd pass. I think he'd have to accept a non-roster invitation if he's dumped on the market.

[Kc61]

I want whatever MLBTR is smoking that they think Kris Bryant could get non tendered

In the comments it’s clarified that the chances are small. Still the author believes it’s possible.

The theory is that Bryant’s a FA next season, he’s coming off a poor (but very short) season, and his salary is likely around $19 million. Maybe not easy to trade for value at that salary level in this market.

I’ve wondered if Reds might non-tender or trade Archie Bradley. $5+ Million expected salary, won’t close for Reds, might be easier to move than Iglesias who earns much more.

But all this should turn on just how desperate teams are to save money this season.

[Kc61]

I'm guessing teh only red is Goodwin. Stephenbson would have been I think. There is a chance they could agree to a deal uf the player is averse to being dumped into a flooded market. If Goodwin would sign for a couple million, he's a keeper, but at $4 or $5 Million, I'd pass. I think he'd have to accept a non-roster invitation if he's dumped on the market.

Casali is a possible non-tender (or trade) as well because a cheaper alternative, Tyler Stephenson, is readily available. Reds will want to give Tyler playing time in any event. By non-tendering both Goodwin and Casali Reds save about $5 million.

On Goodwin, they can use Shogo to back up Senzel in CF. Shogo’s cost is sunk, it’s guaranteed, Reds may decide to avoid the extra expense of Goodwin.

Again, if Reds are really pushing to save, I could see Goodwin, Casali and Bradley moving. Hopefully they have more flexibility than that.

[Mitri]

I'm guessing teh only red is Goodwin. Stephenbson would have been I think. There is a chance they could agree to a deal uf the player is averse to being dumped into a flooded market. If Goodwin would sign for a couple million, he's a keeper, but at $4 or $5 Million, I'd pass. I think he'd have to accept a non-roster invitation if he's dumped on the market.

Goodwin is projected at $2.7MM. I think they'll hang onto him. They've already traded away Stu Fairchild and Hannah, two guys that could've helped in the cheap backup CF slot. And with their primary CF being made of glass, it'd be wise to keep a solid, true CF backup. I don't think they'd want Shogo playing all that much CF and Friedl likely needs another season in the minors.

If they see Goodwin as a mostly corner guy, then sure, non-tender him and go find a cheaper option to backup Senzel.

[Kc61]

Goodwin is projected at $2.7MM. I think they'll hang onto him. They've already traded away Stu Fairchild and Hannah, two guys that could've helped in the cheap backup CF slot. And with their primary CF being made of glass, it'd be wise to keep a solid, true CF backup. I don't think they'd want Shogo playing all that much CF and Friedl likely needs another season in the minors.

If they see Goodwin as a mostly corner guy, then sure, non-tender him and go find a cheaper option to backup Senzel.

All this is predicated on an off-season devoting to cutting cost. In the ordinary course, I agree completely (although Goodwin’s Ks are troubling). We’ll learn much about ownership’s mindset this week, when we see these decisions.

[schroomytunes]

I'm thinking they will be trying to trade some guys on this list, but if not traded I think that Casali and Goodwin will be non-tendered to free up 5 million to be spent on other FA's.

FA's my guess:

1) Jake Marisnick-CF- should be @ 2 million. Bench player

2) Aaron Loup- LHRP- @ 3/4 need another lefty in the pen. solid acquistion

3) Mike Foltyniewicz- RHSP - probably a guaranteed contract under 2, hoping to bounce back starter rotation depth. Buy low type guy

4) Andrelton Simmons-SS 5/6 million. maybe a 1-2 year contract to give Garcia time in AAA

-I just don't see us spending much this offseason. these moves still keep payroll less than 2020 while filling in a few holes. ( SS, LHRP). I think their counting on the earlier trades to pay off (Hoffman, that kid from Houston) to fill pitching holes.

[757690]

My guess is the Reds non-tender or trade Casali and Goodwin. It will be easy to replace them for less money, or even sign them back for less money. That’s the philosophy teams will have this off-season, assuming the market will be flooded with fringe players, so it will be cheap and easy to fill any holes left by any non-tender.

Bradley is the only one I am on the fence about. He should get non-tendered, but they might not want to lose him so quickly after trading a decent prospect for him, and they might want to keep him as insurance for Iglesias.

[JaxRed]

Bradley should be safe. Not only is he a good pitcher, but he'd be a good trade chip if needed in summer. Or for a reasonable multi-year deal, which frees Iglesias for a trade. Would be nice if they agreed on a contract before Tuesday.

Goodwin should be non-tendered. Trading for him never made sense. He's a backup CF that can't hit. We can always use Shogo in CF, or Mark Payton, or TJ Friedl.

Casali is the bubble guy for me.

[Kc61]

Bradley should be safe. Not only is he a good pitcher, but he'd be a good trade chip if needed in summer. Or for a reasonable multi-year deal, which frees Iglesias for a trade. Would be nice if they agreed on a contract before Tuesday.

Goodwin should be non-tendered. Trading for him never made sense. He's a backup CF that can't hit. We can always use Shogo in CF, or Mark Payton, or TJ Friedl.

Casali is the bubble guy for me.

One issue with Goodwin is the DH. If no DH, more of an OF logjam. More reason to let Winker play some LF, and Shogo play some CF. Less use for Goodwin.

Of course, Goodwin is better defensively than some other OFers, but offense probably carries the day.

[Bourgeois Zee]

My guess is the Reds non-tender or trade Casali and Goodwin.

My guesses as well.

I'd look to deal two-time Gold Glover Tucker Barnhart in the hopes of attracting a solid option at SS. (Tampa's Vidal Brujan is a prospect who's probably a bit under the radar, for example, and Tampa could definitely use a solid everyday catcher who can hit even a little bit.)

That'd leave Casali and Stephenson as the two catchers, with Farmer behind them.

As for Goodwin, I'm guessing the Reds are fine with Akiyama, Aquino, Winker, Castellanos, and Senzel across the OF, with Payton and Friedl as AAA reserve depth.

[Bruce Berenyi]

yeah use mark payton that is the sure way to win a title

[dougdirt]

yeah use mark payton that is the sure way to win a title

Every team in baseball has a Mark Payton caliber player as their *checks notes* 5th, 6th, or 7th option in the outfield. The Mark Payton's of the world aren't what make a team a World Series contender or pretender, Bruce.

[mth123]

Lots of CF depth will be there for a minor league deal. Guys like Dyson, Hamilton, Pillar, Marisnick, Taylor, etc, won't all get big league deals.