Reds trying to trade Moose now, too

[RedTeamGo!]

ok, agree to disagree for sure.

Well, I disagree to agree.

[JFLegal]

Well, I disagree to agree.

this type of profanity will not be tolerated.

[Wonderful Monds]

I agree your take is definitely dumb

“Actually the guy who received a stadium fully financed by hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars hasn’t actually benefited off the back of the public and doesn’t owe them anything” is the belief of a genuine moron

[RedsManRick]

ok, this is a good discussion.
Without knowing the answer, I am going to add up all (Baseball reference) WAR from the returning members of last year's team. Since WAR is a cummulative stat, I am going to project the total WAR over 162 games. Not perfect, but it gives us a
decent baseline of where we are at. Players that were not retained are not added. Someone else can do the estimation of guys like Noe that have been added, speculate on the fillins, etc. Edit, I am not going to include bums like Christian Colon at -0.4 , but I will include Aquino at -0.1 because he's projected to be on the team.

For reference, there are projections of WAR out there which make this exercise quite a bit easier: https://www.fangraphs.com/projection...pe=fangraphsdc

[marcshoe]

fwiw, this is the one trade rumor that makes sense to me. Assuming they are cutting payroll, if they could find someone to take part of Moose's salary, even without much of a return, they could put that money toward a shortstop.

[REDREAD]

For reference, there are projections of WAR out there which make this exercise quite a bit easier: https://www.fangraphs.com/projection...pe=fangraphsdc

fair enough, but I will leave that exercise to someone else.
I appreciate the link, but honestly, 2/3 of this board is in denial, and anyone that disagrees has a "vendetta against the Reds" If someone else posted the result, it would probably get more eyes and responses.

[podgejeff_]

If all teams are trying to cut payroll, I really doubt that we're going to have many takers on a Moose contract.

And if all teams are theoretically trying to cut payroll, then there's going to be a lot of unemployed ballplayers to sign on the cheap later.

I hate the idea of trading him anyway. Over a normal season he would have put up 26 HR and 89 RBI at his rate last year. He gave up 20 points of BA and made up for it with 20 points of OBP, hit around his recent career slugging. His OPS+ was right around normal. He was basically what we thought he'd be. A 2-3 win player like he's been most of his career. Which at 2020 rates of 8 million per WAR in FA, puts him right at equal value for what he gives.

[Old school 1983]

If the Reds try to field a young low cost team, fans cry cheap. If they go sign some guys, they cry albatross. The Moose and Cast deals were basically at market value deals. I don’t think you can glean much of anything out of the 2020 season unless it was in relation to a prospect that broke out or a guy that came back from a large injury. Establish or reestablish yourself type stuff. The rest of the season was too weird to really compare performances normally.

[RedTeamGo!]

If the Reds try to field a young low cost team, fans cry cheap. If they go sign some guys, they cry albatross. The Moose and Cast deals were basically at market value deals. I don’t think you can glean much of anything out of the 2020 season unless it was in relation to a prospect that broke out or a guy that came back from a large injury. Establish or reestablish yourself type stuff. The rest of the season was too weird to really compare performances normally.

Christian Yelich batted .205

[Kc61]

Signing Moustakas and Castellanos; trading for Bauer and Gray; these were all perfectly fine moves. It didn’t create the ‘27 Yankees but it was the first real sign of improvement in many years.

Unfortunately, the Reds’ ownership feels it must reverse course somewhat due to COVID-related financial pressures. This was unpredictable.

The team is far from perfect and some changes were due this off-season. But the trajectory was solid before the virus and its impact.

[Kc61]

fwiw, this is the one trade rumor that makes sense to me. Assuming they are cutting payroll, if they could find someone to take part of Moose's salary, even without much of a return, they could put that money toward a shortstop.

I’ll be surprised if the Reds wind up with a better player for shortstop than they have at second-third base with Mike Moustakas. Even if they trade Moose, I doubt Reds will be shopping in the luxury goods aisle.

[HokieRed]

Fangraphs chart suggests to me the most economical way for the Reds to add meaningful WAR (3.0) is Simmons.

[Old school 1983]

To me it seems like the Reds do need to save some cash due to COVID concerns. However, it really doesn’t look like a fire sale to me. At this point, no one traded or non-tendered significantly has moved the needle backwards IMO. The needle has gone slightly back though. As far as all the names in trades, unless all hell breaks loose here soon, I’m not seeing a fire sale. I am seeing due diligence on listening to offers. If I were in the front office, I would consider 3 factors. Possible money saved to reallocate to other pieces, the impact of the loss of that player to the team, and the possible return. When weighing those factors, the trade that makes the most sense to me is Suarez. It checks the money box. It would potentially negatively impact the team. However, I think a potential return could pay immediate dividends. Kieboom is likely in the deal. While guys want to poo poo less than 200 abs, guy was considered a stud prospect this time last year. The Nats also said that they do not want to move top prospects. To me then, the rest of the deal needs to be paid up in MLB players. ie. Robles. I think that’s a fair and solid deal. Suarez comes with questions regarding his shoulder, but has a very team friendly contract and a history of performance. Kieboom and Robles are young, and one has a great prospect pedigree and the other has at least one year of proven MLB performance. There’s risk and reward for both teams there that, IMO, make the deal fair.

[Kc61]

To me it seems like the Reds do need to save some cash due to COVID concerns. However, it really doesn’t look like a fire sale to me. At this point, no one traded or non-tendered significantly has moved the needle backwards IMO. The needle has gone slightly back though. As far as all the names in trades, unless all hell breaks loose here soon, I’m not seeing a fire sale. I am seeing due diligence on listening to offers. If I were in the front office, I would consider 3 factors. Possible money saved to reallocate to other pieces, the impact of the loss of that player to the team, and the possible return. When weighing those factors, the trade that makes the most sense to me is Suarez. It checks the money box. It would potentially negatively impact the team. However, I think a potential return could pay immediate dividends. Kieboom is likely in the deal. While guys want to poo poo less than 200 abs, guy was considered a stud prospect this time last year. The Nats also said that they do not want to move top prospects. To me then, the rest of the deal needs to be paid up in MLB players. ie. Robles. I think that’s a fair and solid deal. Suarez comes with questions regarding his shoulder, but has a very team friendly contract and a history of performance. Kieboom and Robles are young, and one has a great prospect pedigree and the other has at least one year of proven MLB performance. There’s risk and reward for both teams there that, IMO, make the deal fair.

You’re going to have a tough time completing trades of expensive for cheap.

It may seem fair, but Reds may not get equivalent value in this market. The “haves” will be very demanding of the “have nots” who may need to dump salary.

Maybe Reds have to add cash, or give up a good lower level prospect, or something else Nats might demand.

[Old school 1983]

You’re going to have a tough time completing trades of expensive for cheap.

It may seem fair, but Reds may not get equivalent value in this market. The “haves” will be very demanding of the “have nots” who may need to dump salary.

Maybe Reds have to add cash, or give up a good lower level prospect, or something else Nats might demand.

Let them demand all they want. I’d be willing to guess the moves already made placed the Reds momentarily where they want to fall in 2021. If that was not the case, I think we’d have already seen a pure dump move for one of the guys rumored to be on the block. The time being taken tells me that these are actual talent acquisition type of negotiations. Not please get this money off of our books type stuff. I don’t think the Reds necessarily need to trade any of these guys. That puts them in a position of strength. If the richer teams want to try to KC A’s the Reds, the Reds should just say we are taking our ball and going home. Good luck.