Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

[Bourgeois Zee]

Pretty bare, according to Fangraphs' prospect expert, Eric Longenhagen. 36 guys who may help the Reds moving forward. The scouting scale numbers are bad, but the write-ups are written oddly promisingly. (Perhaps that's just a Longenhagen style.) India takes a massive drop; he's been a skeptic on India since being drafted and reports/ scouting takes on his exit velocity are Longenhagen's main point.

He really likes Garcia (and thinks he'll be an eventual All-Star). He thinks Stephenson is a first-division starter as a catcher. Greene, Solomon, and DeLeon (and numerous others) have very high scouting grades both currently and future, but have much lower overall values, which is interesting. The variance among the most talented prospects is also interesting. Lots of boom/ bust in the system.

[kaldaniels]

There’s a reason why I speculate India doesn’t have much trade value.

[RED VAN HOT]

There’s a reason why I speculate India doesn’t have much trade value.

Agree on the trade value, but I haven't written him off yet. He didn't have time to unpack his suitcase in 2018 after being moved so much. Reached AA in what was really his first full season in 2019. Jury is still out for me.

[kaldaniels]

Agree on the trade value, but I haven't written him off yet. He didn't have time to unpack his suitcase in 2018 after being moved so much. Reached AA in what was really his first full season in 2019. Jury is still out for me.

I agree and I said before, it’s ride or die time now. Maybe that flash from his senior year at UF shows back up.

[RedTeamGo!]

I agree and I said before, it’s ride or die time now. Maybe that flash from his senior year at UF shows back up.

Junior year, but yeah, he’s looking like a one year wonder at UF.

[kaldaniels]

Junior year, but yeah, he’s looking like a one year wonder at UF.

Ha, after I wrote that I was thinking it was junior but didn't bother looking.

[Kc61]

N/M.

[RedTeamGo!]

His write-up on Lodolo mirrors my thoughts. I don’t see what is exciting about him. Seems pretty meh to me

[M2]

I dig that he put Garcia #1. That said, no one has a clue where these kids fall heading into this season. I expect seismic shifts in every system in baseball. Some prospects are going to completely disintegrate while some others suddenly are going to be studs. The whiplash is going to be extreme.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I dig that he put Garcia #1. That said, no one has a clue where these kids fall heading into this season. I expect seismic shifts in every system in baseball. Some prospects are going to completely disintegrate while some others suddenly are going to be studs. The whiplash is going to be extreme.

For lower level hitters, those gains may be masked by the league they'll occupy. (At least for Cincinnati.) Conversely, the pitching may look better than it really is.

I do wonder how they'll stock the minor league cupboard. That, to me, is the biggest question baseball faces this year-- and the most far-reaching.

Does Lodolo go to AA? Greene? (Those two plus Richardson, Heatherly, and perhaps Eduardo Salazar could be among the best rotations in minor league baseball.) All five of these guys could start the year in Dayton, then move on at the halfway point of the season.

Are they aggressive with Hinds, Callihan, and Johnson? They're going to have a bit of a roster crunch anyway, with combining two teams into one. They have five catchers who showed some promise and pedigree in the lowest levels of the professional ranks-- James Free, Jose Tello, Wilfred Astudillo, Luke Berryhill, and Daniel Vellojin. What are they going to do with them?

What about college pitchers drafted the past two years? Do they just pile up in Instructs and low A Daytona? With Hendrick, Wainwright, and a whole host of college OF from the 2019 draft not to mention Dominican League guys from 2019, there are conceivably 10 OF who'll vie for time in Daytona. Might some of them be moved aggressively? I suspect so. If so, who?

The teams that can answer these types of questions with their own prospects (and can determine how other teams screwed up) will have a massive advantage in development and talent acquisition, but that window is super tight-- no more than a year.

I hope Cincinnati's focus on analytics can provide some low-hanging fruit. (Though, to my eyes, early returns like the Rule 5 draft have been decidedly questionable.)

[kaldaniels]

I dig that he put Garcia #1. That said, no one has a clue where these kids fall heading into this season. I expect seismic shifts in every system in baseball. Some prospects are going to completely disintegrate while some others suddenly are going to be studs. The whiplash is going to be extreme.

Yep. Just above RTG said he wasn’t bullish on Lodolo - which is totally fine. But when I went to look at who was picked after him we really have no good info (true game action) on any of these guys yet. We will know so much more once MiLB games start.

[RedTeamGo!]

Yep. Just above RTG said he wasn’t bullish on Lodolo - which is totally fine. But when I went to look at who was picked after him we really have no good info (true game action) on any of these guys yet. We will know so much more once MiLB games start.

My opinion on Lodolo is kind of weird. I think he was absolutely the right pick, but I’m not excited about him. It was a tough draft to be the 7th pick. Huge drop from 6 to 7 IMO.

It’s funny, though, I remember leading up to the draft there was smoke around the Reds selecting Rutledge and I remember being very against taking him, the Nats got him in the teens and now the experts are salivating over him. Just listened to the BA podcast about the Nats prospects and they are very high on him.

So, what do I know....

[podgejeff_]

My opinion on Lodolo is kind of weird. I think he was absolutely the right pick, but I’m not excited about him. It was a tough draft to be the 7th pick. Huge drop from 6 to 7 IMO.

It’s funny, though, I remember leading up to the draft there was smoke around the Reds selecting Rutledge and I remember being very against taking him, the Nats got him in the teens and now the experts are salivating over him. Just listened to the BA podcast about the Nats prospects and they are very high on him.

So, what do I know....

Literally everywhere ranks Lodolo higher than Rutledge.

[RedTeamGo!]

Literally everywhere ranks Lodolo higher than Rutledge.

Yeah, without a 2020 milb season

[MikeS21]

My opinion on Lodolo is kind of weird. I think he was absolutely the right pick, but I’m not excited about him. It was a tough draft to be the 7th pick. Huge drop from 6 to 7 IMO.

It’s funny, though, I remember leading up to the draft there was smoke around the Reds selecting Rutledge and I remember being very against taking him, the Nats got him in the teens and now the experts are salivating over him. Just listened to the BA podcast about the Nats prospects and they are very high on him.

So, what do I know....

Maybe its just me, but I always thought that once you got past the first three, four, five picks of the draft, most of the consensus picks that all the the gurus agree on are gone, and after that, its just one big crap shoot. Of course the entire draft is a crap shoot, but even more so once you get past the first handful of picks.

That's when it really helps to have a scouting department that is on the ball.