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Thread: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

  1. #16
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by podgejeff_ View Post
    Literally everywhere ranks Lodolo higher than Rutledge.
    Yeah, without a 2020 milb season
    What would you say.....ya do here?


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  3. #17
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    One interesting takeaway from the list: no Wendell Marrero.

    Dude went .324/ .425/ .490/ .915 in 2019 in his first taste of pro ball. He was an 11th round draft pick out of Puerto Rico, so he has some prospect cache. He was 19, and maybe the sample (30 games) was small, but in a report with 50 names on it, he doesn't make a list?

    That doesn't seem as inclusive or overarching as perhaps Fangraphs purports itself to be.

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  5. #18
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Baseball America has a podcast up on Reds and their farm system. Not sure if you must be a subscriber.
    Last edited by Kc61; 12-28-2020 at 11:51 AM.

  6. #19
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Baseball America has a podcast up on Reds and their farm system. Not sure if you must be a subscriber.
    You don’t have to be. The podcasts are free.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  7. #20
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Baseball America Podcast overview:

    They're assuming the Reds are in seller's mode at the major league level.
    None of the Reds' top players are top 50, maybe not top 100.
    They don't like Hunter Greene because he doesn't miss enough bats. (A 12 K rate is apparently not good now.)
    They like Hendrick's profile as one of the top HS hitters in the draft, but he has to prove it in the professional ranks.
    Jose Garcia earns their top pick because he has a high floor. He profiles as a defense-first, 10-15 HR guy at the MLB level.
    Lodolo profiles as a BOR guy.
    Michael Siani is a 7 defense guy in CF and an average bat has real value.
    Ivan Johnson is a sleeper they like, but he'll have to prove it.

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  9. #21
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Baseball America Podcast overview:

    They're assuming the Reds are in seller's mode at the major league level.
    None of the Reds' top players are top 50, maybe not top 100.
    They don't like Hunter Greene because he doesn't miss enough bats. (A 12 K rate is apparently not good now.)
    They like Hendrick's profile as one of the top HS hitters in the draft, but he has to prove it in the professional ranks.
    Jose Garcia earns their top pick because he has a high floor. He profiles as a defense-first, 10-15 HR guy at the MLB level.
    Lodolo profiles as a BOR guy.
    Michael Siani is a 7 defense guy in CF and an average bat has real value.
    Ivan Johnson is a sleeper they like, but he'll have to prove it.
    Jesus that is bleak
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  10. #22
    Member podgejeff_'s Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Baseball America Podcast overview:

    They're assuming the Reds are in seller's mode at the major league level.
    None of the Reds' top players are top 50, maybe not top 100.
    They don't like Hunter Greene because he doesn't miss enough bats. (A 12 K rate is apparently not good now.)
    They like Hendrick's profile as one of the top HS hitters in the draft, but he has to prove it in the professional ranks.
    Jose Garcia earns their top pick because he has a high floor. He profiles as a defense-first, 10-15 HR guy at the MLB level.
    Lodolo profiles as a BOR guy.
    Michael Siani is a 7 defense guy in CF and an average bat has real value.
    Ivan Johnson is a sleeper they like, but he'll have to prove it.
    I really don't get the Lodolo view. Big, plus control lefty with above average pitches taken in the top 10 (and previously drafted high by the Pirates as a HS) is somehow a BOR starter after barely having any minor league innings. I can see a MOR argument but come on.

    And if Hunter Greene doesn't miss enough bats I really don't know what they're looking for.

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  12. #23
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Jesus that is bleak
    What's funny is that they basically hedged every bet possible, saying that with good performances, the Reds' farm could end up "very strong" after 2021.

    Basically, it was a lot of fluff and filler. Neither guy impressed me as knowing much of anything about the Reds. They were certainly less informed than most of the guys on this site. Extremely disappointing "analysis" (as in, none). Doug Gray does it far, far better.

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  14. #24
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Ivan Johnson is a sleeper they like, but he'll have to prove it.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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  16. #25
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects


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  18. #26
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    My opinion on Lodolo is kind of weird. I think he was absolutely the right pick, but I’m not excited about him. It was a tough draft to be the 7th pick. Huge drop from 6 to 7 IMO.

    It’s funny, though, I remember leading up to the draft there was smoke around the Reds selecting Rutledge and I remember being very against taking him, the Nats got him in the teens and now the experts are salivating over him. Just listened to the BA podcast about the Nats prospects and they are very high on him.

    So, what do I know....
    Maybe its just me, but I always thought that once you got past the first three, four, five picks of the draft, most of the consensus picks that all the the gurus agree on are gone, and after that, its just one big crap shoot. Of course the entire draft is a crap shoot, but even more so once you get past the first handful of picks.

    That's when it really helps to have a scouting department that is on the ball.
    “I think I throw the ball as hard as anyone. The ball just doesn't get there as fast.” — Eddie Bane

    “We know we're better than this ... but we can't prove it.” — Tony Gwynn

  19. #27
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    Maybe its just me, but I always thought that once you got past the first three, four, five picks of the draft, most of the consensus picks that all the the gurus agree on are gone, and after that, its just one big crap shoot. Of course the entire draft is a crap shoot, but even more so once you get past the first handful of picks.

    That's when it really helps to have a scouting department that is on the ball.
    You are right but it was even more extreme in this draft.

    If you listen to the BA podcast from a couple days ago about the Reds top 10 they state Lodolo was the best pitcher in that draft class but it was the worst pitching class in draft history.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  20. #28
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Anybody bagging on Lodolo at this point, suggesting he has bottom-of-rotation potential ain't particularly informed. He doesn't profile as Sherzer or Kershaw, but there is plenty of stuff for him to be a No. 2 if all goes well. It'll entirely depend on how he develops, and thus far--both 2019 performance and 2020 reports--were pretty positive. These dummies just need to file one of these for each team and fill some air time.

  21. #29
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Almost all prospect rankings (and even many scouting reports) should be ignored this year given what happened in 2020. Call it the great reset or whatever you want, but I think the delta in rankings a year from now vs now will be wider than in any two years in the last 20.
    Go BLUE!!!

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  23. #30
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    Re: Fangraphs' 2020 Top Red Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    Anybody bagging on Lodolo at this point, suggesting he has bottom-of-rotation potential ain't particularly informed. He doesn't profile as Sherzer or Kershaw, but there is plenty of stuff for him to be a No. 2 if all goes well. It'll entirely depend on how he develops, and thus far--both 2019 performance and 2020 reports--were pretty positive. These dummies just need to file one of these for each team and fill some air time.
    The fact Lodolo is a bit of a soft tosser is what gives me pause. Also, the fact he got completely destroyed by the Tigers last year.
    What would you say.....ya do here?


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