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Thread: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

  1. #16
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    Asking Trevor Bauer to choose between the Reds and almost any other team is like trying to ask someone to choose between Google and Ask Jeeves. We all know what's going to happen.


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  3. #17
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    It'll be one of up to four picks (four players accepted the QO) between 29 (Houston got docked a pick) and 34, which begins the Comp-A round.
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    The latter, compensatory pick in round B, applies to Bauer.

    On a 1 yr deal, there is no way he exceeds $50. And say what you want about it being a multi year, but the odds on that are real long.

  4. #18
    I wear Elly colored glass WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
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    The latter, compensatory pick in round B, applies to Bauer.

    On a 1 yr deal, there is no way he exceeds $50. And say what you want about it being a multi year, but the odds on that are real long.
    I've never much bought the one year deal thing. Bauer isn't leaving guaranteed millions on the table. But you're right in that we can't count that until it does or doesn't happen.
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

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  6. #19
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    I've never much bought the one year deal thing. Bauer isn't leaving guaranteed millions on the table. But you're right in that we can't count that until it does or doesn't happen.
    I agree, NO CHANCE he signs a one year deal.

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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    Quote Originally Posted by Rdirtypirates View Post
    I agree, NO CHANCE he signs a one year deal.
    One year with a low $$$ player only option for a second year in case of injury.

    So something like a $5 million player option, which he clearly will not exercise if healthy because on the open market his value would be multiple times that. But if he is hurt, it gives him some base money to work from during the rehab.

    Kind of like the contracts you see when someone is recuperating from TJ. I think Kahnle signed something like that with the Dodgers just recently. 2 year $5.25 even though he will not pitch in '21. In his case, it is money upfront during the recovery and the Dodgers betting on his value the year after when he does pitch. With Bauer it would be value now with some insurance for him if injury happened during the season. Like the line drive he took off his ankle that knocked him out of the Cy late in the '18 season. If the rehab was going to be lengthy, he could exercise the option for the following year.

    Not sure if you want to call that a one year deal or not. But when I refer to a one year deal, that is the kind of structure I am referring to. And yes, there is a BIG CHANCE that you will see something similar to that.

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    Norm Chortleton (12-27-2020),Old school 1983 (12-28-2020),Revering4Blue (12-27-2020)

  9. #21
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    Quote Originally Posted by jup View Post
    One year with a low $$$ player only option for a second year in case of injury.

    So something like a $5 million player option, which he clearly will not exercise if healthy because on the open market his value would be multiple times that. But if he is hurt, it gives him some base money to work from during the rehab.

    Kind of like the contracts you see when someone is recuperating from TJ. I think Kahnle signed something like that with the Dodgers just recently. 2 year $5.25 even though he will not pitch in '21. In his case, it is money upfront during the recovery and the Dodgers betting on his value the year after when he does pitch. With Bauer it would be value now with some insurance for him if injury happened during the season. Like the line drive he took off his ankle that knocked him out of the Cy late in the '18 season. If the rehab was going to be lengthy, he could exercise the option for the following year.

    Not sure if you want to call that a one year deal or not. But when I refer to a one year deal, that is the kind of structure I am referring to. And yes, there is a BIG CHANCE that you will see something similar to that.
    I personally don't see anyone turning down the contract offers he will get for a one year deal, even Bauer. I could see him signing a contract with multiple opt outs, but not the type of contract you described. I don't see him leaving that much money on the table.

  10. #22
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    Quote Originally Posted by Rdirtypirates View Post
    I agree, NO CHANCE he signs a one year deal.
    Agreed. His value will never be higher than it is right now. Cy Young award winners going into free agency don't happen every year. He has to sign at least a 3 year deal in my mind.
    Time will tell.

  11. #23
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    I'm going in Krusty-style! Bauer signs a multi year deal with the Giants which leads the Angels to trade 4 minor league players (Jo Adell or Brandon Marsh, Jeremiah Jackson, Patrick Sandoval and Davis Daniel) plus cash to the Reds for Gray and Castellanos.

  12. #24
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    My current Bauer probability chart

    Mets 40%
    White Sox 15%
    Padres 15%
    Giants 10%
    Yankees 10%
    Blue Jays 5%
    Reds 5%

  13. #25
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    My current Bauer probability chart

    Mets 40%
    White Sox 15%
    Padres 15%
    Giants 10%
    Yankees 10%
    Blue Jays 5%
    Reds 5%
    I'd guess the Dodgers are the prime choice for Bauer.

  14. #26
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    Someone please save me from looking it up...

    What compensation do the REDS get for Bauer signing with someone else?
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  15. #27
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Someone please save me from looking it up...

    What compensation do the REDS get for Bauer signing with someone else?
    34th pick in the draft or thereabouts.

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  17. #28
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    34th pick in the draft or thereabouts.
    Only if he signs for $50 million or more (I think). If he signs only a one year then if falls another round.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

  18. #29
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    like most of you, probably, i regularly check the MLB.com homepage to see the headlines and what has transpired during the day so early this morning as i drift in and out of sleep i have a vision, yes a vision, of a headline that read..."Bauer Back to the Reds"! Maybe a sign from heaven or maybe just me being gassy but either way we got that going for us

  19. #30
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    Re: Two grand predictions re: Trevor Bauer

    Quote Originally Posted by GADawg View Post
    like most of you, probably, i regularly check the MLB.com homepage to see the headlines and what has transpired during the day so early this morning as i drift in and out of sleep i have a vision, yes a vision, of a headline that read..."Bauer Back to the Reds"! Maybe a sign from heaven or maybe just me being gassy but either way we got that going for us
    I've had a gut feeling all along that Trevor will wind up back in Cincinnati. Certainly could be wrong but I'd love for it to happen.
    "Strickland Propane... Taste the meat, not the heat." - Hank Hill

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