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Thread: 2021 Prognostication: Low A Daytona Roster (Pitching)

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    2021 Prognostication: Low A Daytona Roster (Pitching)

    Second in a series-- this time, we'll focus on low A pitching.

    Assumptions:
    The Reds have throughout their history as a franchise been almost universally conservative with prospects moving up the farm system rungs. Players tend to move up levels one at a time, and almost always at the natural breaks of a season. (Rare is the three-level mover in one calendar year.) Because of the pandemic, there's a logjam of players at the low A level. I'm assuming the Reds will continue to play conservatively with prospect movement-- one level at a time. That means those players who might have typically graduated to High A or even AA will be left behind, so to speak, with retarded MLB arrival times. That said, those who went to Prasco and Instructs-- especially the select few who were there for the entire time or nearly so-- probably are in the plans for full-season ball this year.

    Overview:
    There are lots more suspects here than in the offensive prospects. It's also a bit easier to figure out who's likely to start in Daytona. As near as I can tell, there are 12 starting candidates, with multiple swing options behind them. I'm guessing the Reds will let most marinate in Arizona-- or perhaps they'll be more aggressive with older prospects and move them to High A Dayton. For example, the Reds may have used Instructs to get older players a taste of ball in 2020 so that they move to High A Dayton for 2021. That'd make some sense, as most of the prospects here are old for the league. It may well be true that Medrano, Bonnin, Davis, and perhaps Ashcroft (just among the starters) will end up in Dayton to start the year. And that's just the starters. The relievers could nearly all end up in Dayton as well.

    Starters
    Miguel Medrano [23]
    Arguably the best pitcher in the Pioneer League in 2019, Medrano was very good in terms of production and performance-- and has been more than up to the task since being traded for in a deal with Texas. He's got a decent fastball, an excellent changeup, and a developing off-speed pitch. They're all good enough for him to continue as a starter, certainly. Could well move up to Dayton if the Reds think he's ready. The missed season likely hurts him more than most, as he's now considered old for the level and therefore probably won't be given the same respect. (This is one reason why a move up the ladder may be helpful for him as a prospect.)

    Jacob Heatherly [22]
    Heatherly was looking at a (mostly) lost season due to shoulder woes, so the pandemic didn't kill his development. He's a wildcard-- might be back to normal, might never return to his previous form. But he's likely to get the shot-- and Daytona makes the most sense.

    Bryce Bonnin [21]
    Bonnin pitched in Instructs, and his stuff was eye-opening, according to scouts. He was up to the high 90's on his fastball and had a clue how to pitch. A 2020 draftee, they typically began in Billings, but he's a Division I guy and had Instructs to iron out some kinks. I'm guessing they'll start him in Daytona, as it's pretty forgiving for pitchers and may give Bonnin some helium as a prospect. He's a spin guy, and Boddy has had success with those types already.

    Noah Davis [23]
    Davis is another older starter with a limited ceiling. His slider is very good, and his fastball is another of those mid-90s offerings that every team seems to have. He came back strong from Tommy John in 2019 and should be healthy and ready to go in 2020 after spending some time in Instructs late in the year. He's another who could move up to High A Dayton if he shows he's ready. I'm guessing, however, he'll start in Daytona.

    Christian Roa [21]
    Last year's second round pick, Roa's got stuff. Stop me if you've heard this: mid-90s fastball with a good off-speed pitch. The differences between Roa and the other pitchers on this list? He, like Medrano, already has a good change-up, but he's only really enjoyed success for limited innings. As a prospect, Roa is tailor-made for the low A Daytona. He's within the typical age range, a high enough draft pick to be pushed/ given a spot, and enough upside to earn serious helium as his four-pitch arsenal makes life difficult for Florida State League hitters.

    Others of Note:
    Jose Salvador [21]
    Left with great K numbers and a long ball problem, he's probably the next pitcher in line should the Reds decide to move Bonnin, Davis, et al, up to Dayton. Personally, I'd start him in the FSL for helium (as the league would artificially keep his KR rate down and help him to play up his stuff. I'm guessing he may start in Arizona, but his

    Luis Mey [19]
    Mey was an Instructs darling, bumping his stuff up significantly. He's a ground ball machine. There's a lot to like here. But he's young enough to stay back in Arizona to get some more seasoning on his off-speed stuff. He's one to watch and may click early enough to force the issue.

    Tyler Garbee [24]
    Garbee has some seriously nice stuff, as evidenced by his 10 K rate. He doesn't beat himself, with only a 2.0 BB rate. But he was pretty hittable in his professional debut. He's also very old for the league. More likely, I'm guessing Garbee will either move to the pen (to allow his stuff to play up) or be promoted aggressively enough to work with his age.

    Jose Franco [20]
    I wouldn't include Franco as a candidate except he pitched in Instructs and had some dazzling numbers in the Dominican. Not sure he'd start in low A yet, but he may at the halfway point of the season. He's certainly one to keep an eye on.

    Omar Conoropo [22]
    Conoropo pitched almost as well as Medrano, but he just doesn't have the same stuff. He should be given the chance to see what he can do-- innings eating BOR guys have value.

    Graham Ashcraft [23]
    Ashcraft was a 6th rounder in 2019 and pitched relatively well in Greeneville. He's got a live arm, throwing up to 99 in high school. He's in the mid 90's now with a good slider and solid sinker. The change-up is behind those two offerings, but he's a worm-killer; his ground ball percentage was third among Reds' farmhands in 2019. He wasn't invited to Instructs, so he may be behind the others-- or he might have been working in a good spot, and they didn't want to bother him. Boddy mentioned him a couple of times as a guy they like, so he's on the list. Like the ground ball numbers and the K rate. Like that his BB rate wasn't outrageously bad (after a collegiate career in which it was).

    Relievers
    Tanner Cooper [21]
    Really good numbers and a spot in Instructs may mean he moves up to High A. He fits in Daytona as well. Like the stuff.

    JC Keys [23]
    Spot starter and long man is probably depth at this point, but he could surprise. He may be asked to tandem Mey (or perhaps Roa) to keep his innings down.

    Evan Kravetz [23]
    Injured last year, he was a closer at Rice. Love the arm and the gamble. If they aren't making him a starter, he could move quickly.

    Leo Nierenberg [22]
    NDFA with time at Instructs. Probably will be given a shot somewhere. He fits in the 'pen at Daytona as a middle relief guy.

    Johnnie Schneider [23]
    Another guy with very good numbers who's old for the level. Another guy who may be moved rather aggressively depending on how he did in Instructs.

    Carson Spiers [23]
    Another NDFA, another big-time arm in a relief role. I suspect he's another quick mover who may be a short-timer in Daytona. Or a full-season guy who'll need to prove himself at each level.

    Manuel Cachutt [23]
    Another Instructs guy who's old for the level. Another good arm.

    Alexander Johnson [20]
    Injured after getting drafted late in 2019, Johnson's a big kid from Buffalo. He pitched in Instructs.

    Joe Boyle [21]
    5th rounder from Notre Dame (and just outside of Louisville) will be a project, but that 80 fastball is too good to let go.

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    camisadelgolf (12-27-2020),Roy Tucker (12-30-2020),SErebel11 (01-06-2021)


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    Member camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Prognostication: Low A Daytona Roster (Pitching)

    Did you give consideration to Nick Hanson? He could certainly use a chance to build up his innings. The 3rd rounder has logged only 20.2 IP across 5 professional seasons.

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Prognostication: Low A Daytona Roster (Pitching)

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Did you give consideration to Nick Hanson? He could certainly use a chance to build up his innings. The 3rd rounder has logged only 20.2 IP across 5 professional seasons.
    Forgot all about him, honestly.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Prognostication: Low A Daytona Roster (Pitching)

    Boddy said nice things about Ashcraft and Davis yesterday. Got to think that bodes well for them, though I could see both pitching at higher levels if the org really likes them.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 2021 Prognostication: Low A Daytona Roster (Pitching)

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Boddy said nice things about Ashcraft and Davis yesterday. Got to think that bodes well for them, though I could see both pitching at higher levels if the org really likes them.
    His comment about pitchers who show gains being promoted aggressively would certainly suggest the Ashcrafts and Davises (and Schneiders and Spiers) would be pushed.


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