Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

[JaxRed]

Seven Average technically dropped under 100K, but may not survive the backifill.

Numbers continue to come down. The whole 2 month wave thing continues.... September 2nd appears to be the peak of this wave. Numbers dropped by 50K In Sept.

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
19th - 37,145
26th - 59,557
31st - 81,836

August
2nd - 88,897
9th - 117,354
16th - 135,991
23rd - 150,944
30th - 162,761
31st - 164,691

Sep 1st - 165,729
Sep 6th - 162,928
Sep 13th - 147,690
Sep 21st - 135,364
Sep 28th - 114,381
Sep 29th - 112,638
Sep 30th - 110,696

Oct 1st - 109,773
Oct 2nd - 107,898
Oct 3rd - 106,135
Oct 4th - 104,671
Oct 5th - 103,043
Oct 6th - 100,622
Oct 7th - 97,614

[JaxRed]

Seven Average technically dropped under 90K, but may not survive the backifill.

Numbers continue to come down. The whole 2 month wave thing continues.... September 2nd appears to be the peak of this wave. Numbers dropped by 50K In Sept. And now by 30,000 in October

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
19th - 37,145
26th - 59,557
31st - 81,836

August
2nd - 88,897
9th - 117,354
16th - 135,991
23rd - 150,944
30th - 162,761
31st - 164,691

Sep 1st - 165,729
Sep 6th - 162,928
Sep 13th - 147,690
Sep 21st - 135,364
Sep 28th - 114,381
Sep 29th - 112,638
Sep 30th - 110,696

Oct 1st - 109,773
Oct 2nd - 107,898
Oct 3rd - 106,135
Oct 4th - 104,671
Oct 5th - 103,043
Oct 6th - 100,709
Oct 7th - 98,867
Oct 8th - 96,342
Oct 9th - 94,294
Oct 10th - 93,175
Oct 11th - 91,332
Oct 12th - 88,590

[JaxRed]

Seven Day Average dropped under 90K

Numbers continue to come down. The whole 2 month wave thing continues.... September 2nd appears to be the peak of this wave. Numbers dropped by 50K In Sept. And now by 25,000 in October

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
19th - 37,145
26th - 59,557
31st - 81,836

August
2nd - 88,897
9th - 117,354
16th - 135,991
23rd - 150,944
30th - 162,761
31st - 164,691

Sep 1st - 165,729
Sep 6th - 162,928
Sep 13th - 147,690
Sep 21st - 135,364
Sep 28th - 114,381
Sep 30th - 110,696

Oct 1st - 109,773
Oct 8th - 96,342
Oct 9th - 95.332
Oct 10th - 94,349
Oct 11th - 92,650
Oct 12th - 90,979
Oct 13th - 89,700
Oct 14th - 87,555
Oct 15th - 85,305

[JaxRed]

Seven Day Average dropped under 80K. Wil it survive backfill? I think it might. Cases were 71K yesterday

September 2nd appears to be the peak of this wave. Numbers dropped by 50K In Sept. And now by 30,000 in October

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
19th - 37,145
26th - 59,557
31st - 81,836

August
2nd - 88,897
9th - 117,354
16th - 135,991
23rd - 150,944
30th - 162,761
31st - 164,691

Sep 1st - 165,729
Sep 6th - 162,928
Sep 13th - 147,690
Sep 21st - 135,364
Sep 28th - 114,381
Sep 30th - 110,696

Oct 1st - 109,773
Oct 8th - 96,342
Oct 9th - 95.332
Oct 10th - 94,349
Oct 11th - 92,650
Oct 12th - 90,979
Oct 13th - 89,700
Oct 14th - 87,555
Oct 15th - 85,314
Oct 16th - 83,359
Oct 17th - 81.878
Oct 18th - 80,989
Oct 19th - 78,046

[JaxRed]

Seven Day Average dropped under 80K. Wil it survive backfill? I think it might. Cases were 71K yesterday

September 2nd appears to be the peak of this wave. Numbers dropped by 50K In Sept. And now by 30,000 in October

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
19th - 37,145
26th - 59,557
31st - 81,836

August
2nd - 88,897
9th - 117,354
16th - 135,991
23rd - 150,944
30th - 162,761
31st - 164,691

Sep 1st - 165,729
Sep 6th - 162,928
Sep 13th - 147,690
Sep 21st - 135,364
Sep 28th - 114,381
Sep 30th - 110,696

Oct 1st - 109,773
Oct 8th - 96,342
Oct 9th - 95.332
Oct 10th - 94,349
Oct 11th - 92,650
Oct 12th - 90,979
Oct 13th - 89,700
Oct 14th - 87,555
Oct 15th - 85,314
Oct 16th - 83,359
Oct 17th - 82,820
Oct 18th - 82,133
Oct 19th - 80,204
Oct 20th - 77,378
Oct 21st - 75,745
Oct 22rd - 73,837

[JaxRed]

Seven Day Average drop to 70K and still appear to be heading down.

September 2nd appears to be the peak of this wave. Numbers dropped by 50K In Sept. And now by 30,000 in October

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
19th - 37,145
26th - 59,557
31st - 81,836

August
2nd - 88,897
9th - 117,354
16th - 135,991
23rd - 150,944
30th - 162,761
31st - 164,691

Sep 1st - 165,729
Sep 6th - 162,928
Sep 13th - 147,690
Sep 21st - 135,364
Sep 28th - 114,381
Sep 30th - 110,696

Oct 1st - 109,773
Oct 8th - 96,342
Oct 9th - 95.332
Oct 10th - 94,349
Oct 11th - 92,650
Oct 12th - 90,979
Oct 13th - 89,700
Oct 14th - 87,555
Oct 15th - 85,314
Oct 16th - 83,359
Oct 17th - 82,820
Oct 18th - 82,133
Oct 19th - 80,204
Oct 20th - 77,378
Oct 21st - 75,861
Oct 22rd - 74,026
Oct 23rd - 72,905
Oct 24th - 71,760
Oct 25th - 70,465

[JaxRed]

Seven Day Average drop to close to 70K and still appear to be heading down. Although the rate seems to slowing. Possible plateau?

September 2nd appears to be the peak of this wave. Numbers dropped by 50K In Sept. And now by almost 40,000 in October

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
19th - 37,145
26th - 59,557
31st - 81,836

August
2nd - 88,897
9th - 117,354
16th - 135,991
23rd - 150,944
30th - 162,761
31st - 164,691

Sep 1st - 165,729
Sep 6th - 162,928
Sep 13th - 147,690
Sep 21st - 135,364
Sep 28th - 114,381
Sep 30th - 110,696

Oct 1st - 109,773
Oct 8th - 96,342
Oct 9th - 95.332
Oct 10th - 94,349
Oct 11th - 92,650
Oct 12th - 90,979
Oct 13th - 89,700
Oct 14th - 87,555
Oct 15th - 85,314
Oct 16th - 83,359
Oct 17th - 82,820
Oct 18th - 82,133
Oct 19th - 80,204
Oct 20th - 77,378
Oct 21st - 75,861
Oct 22rd - 74,026
Oct 23rd - 72,905
Oct 24th - 72,733
Oct 25th - 71,989
Oct 26th - 71,837
Oct 27th - 71,240

[boxseat]

I would like to view the trendline as winter picks up.

[JaxRed]

Seven Day Average drop to close to 70K. But it seems to have plateaued. Next few days will tell the tale.

September 2nd appears to be the peak of this wave. Numbers dropped by 50K In Sept. And by almost 49,000 in October

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
19th - 37,145
26th - 59,557
31st - 81,836

August
2nd - 88,897
9th - 117,354
16th - 135,991
23rd - 150,944
30th - 162,761
31st - 164,691

Sep 1st - 165,729
Sep 6th - 162,928
Sep 13th - 147,690
Sep 21st - 135,364
Sep 28th - 114,381
Sep 30th - 110,696

Oct 1st - 109,773
Oct 8th - 96,342
Oct 9th - 95.332
Oct 10th - 94,349
Oct 11th - 92,650
Oct 12th - 90,979
Oct 13th - 89,700
Oct 14th - 87,555
Oct 15th - 85,314
Oct 16th - 83,359
Oct 17th - 82,820
Oct 18th - 82,133
Oct 19th - 80,204
Oct 20th - 77,378
Oct 21st - 75,861
Oct 22rd - 74,026
Oct 23rd - 73,812
Oct 24th - 72,963
Oct 25th - 72,354
Oct 26th - 72,281
Oct 27th - 71,898
Oct 28th - 71,674
Oct 29th - 71,631
Oct 30th - 71,508
Oct 31st - 71,779

Nov 1st - 71,614
Nov 2nd - 71,110

[JaxRed]

We have defintely plateaued. At least for a while.

September 2nd appears to be the peak of this wave. Numbers dropped by 50K In Sept. And by almost 49,000 in October

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
19th - 37,145
26th - 59,557
31st - 81,836

August
2nd - 88,897
9th - 117,354
16th - 135,991
23rd - 150,944
30th - 162,761
31st - 164,691

Sep 1st - 165,729
Sep 6th - 162,928
Sep 13th - 147,690
Sep 21st - 135,364
Sep 28th - 114,381
Sep 30th - 110,696

Oct 1st - 109,773
Oct 8th - 96,342
Oct 15th - 85,314
Oct 22rd - 74,026
Oct 29th - 71,631
Oct 31st - 71,779

Nov 1st - 71,593
Nov 2nd - 70,973
Nov 3rd - 70,747
Nov 4th - 71,003
Nov 5th - 71,092

[JaxRed]

We are no longer in a plateau. We are officially heading back up. Numbers are up about 6,000 from their recent lows.

September 2nd appears to be the peak of this wave. Numbers dropped by 50K In Sept. And by almost 49,000 in October

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
19th - 37,145
26th - 59,557
31st - 81,836

August
2nd - 88,897
9th - 117,354
16th - 135,991
23rd - 150,944
30th - 162,761
31st - 164,691

Sep 1st - 165,729
Sep 6th - 162,928
Sep 13th - 147,690
Sep 21st - 135,364
Sep 28th - 114,381
Sep 30th - 110,696

Oct 1st - 109,773
Oct 8th - 96,342
Oct 15th - 85,314
Oct 22rd - 74,026
Oct 29th - 71,631
Oct 31st - 71,964

Nov 1st - 71,725
Nov 2nd - 71,235
Nov 3rd - 71,087
Nov 4th - 71,617
Nov 5th - 72,004
Nov 6th - 72,604
Nov 7th - 73,657
Nov 8th - 74,347
Nov 9th - 74,902
Nov 10th - 76,875
Nov 11th - 77,089
Nov 12th - 77,700

[Bob Sheed]

"Let's go surfin' now, everybody's learnin' how, come and catch the 'rona with meeeee....."

[JaxRed]

We are officially heading back up. Over 111K yesterday. Going to clean up the data to save space.

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
15th - 55,835
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
13th - 72,314
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
17th - 32,081
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
21st - 12.048

July
5th - 13,854
19th - 37,145
31st - 81,836

August
9th - 117,354
23rd - 150,944
31st - 164,691

Sep 1st - 165,729
Sep 21st - 135,364
Sep 30th - 110,696

Oct
Oct 8th - 96,342
Oct 22rd - 74,026
Oct 29th - 71,631

Nov
Nov 6th - 72,604
Nov 11th - 78,524
Nov 12th - 79,993
Nov 13th - 81,471
Nov 14th - 82,431
Nov 15th - 84,213
Nov 16th - 86,500
Nov 17th - 88,067
Nov 18th - 90,194
Nov 19th - 92,243

[JaxRed]

Before Omicron somehow eludes our airtight national border, Delta's Northern Wave has not yet exceeded the Southern Wave, but it's trying. It's back over 100K on a 7 Day average. (147K Daily)

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
15th - 55,835
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
13th - 72,314
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
17th - 32,081
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
21st - 12.048

July
5th - 13,854
19th - 37,145
31st - 81,836

August
9th - 117,354
23rd - 150,944
31st - 164,691

Sep 1st - 165,729
Sep 21st - 135,364
Sep 30th - 110,696

Oct
Oct 8th - 96,342
Oct 22rd - 74,026
Oct 29th - 71,631

Nov
Nov 6th - 72,604
Nov 13th - 81,471
Nov 19th - 92,243

Dec
3rd - 106,607

[boxseat]

Exactly what I thought. The start of the school year and colder weather facilitates more COVID cases.