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Thread: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

  1. #1
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    The other Covid thread has kind of gone off the rails. Hoping this one can just be about the trendline. So far the line peaked on the 18th at 223,902. And since then we have vaccinated over 4 million people with a first dose.

    But 232K new cases developed on 2 Jan. California is almost 4 times as many as any other state and represents slightly more than 20% of all new cases in the US. They had 46,966. The 7 day trendline is starting to head back up.

    Seven day averages shown below

    18th - 223,902
    19th - 220,376
    20th - 219,705
    21st - 219,761
    22nd - 219,243
    23rd - 216,683
    24th - 212,490
    25th - 197,777
    26th - 193,151
    27th - 186,828
    28th - 184,853
    29th - 184,901
    30th - 185,074
    31st - 189,564
    1st - 198,313
    2nd - 207,807
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"


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  3. #2
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Today (3rd) had 194,337 new cases. California almost 39K of those. 7 Day trendline still headed up. Still short of peak of 18th. But not by much.

    18th - 223,902
    19th - 220,376
    20th - 219,705
    21st - 219,761
    22nd - 219,243
    23rd - 216,683
    24th - 212,490
    25th - 197,777
    26th - 193,151
    27th - 186,828
    28th - 184,853
    29th - 184,901
    30th - 185,074
    31st - 189,564
    1st - 199,788
    2nd - 209,878
    3rd - 216,886
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

  4. #3
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    The 4th saw a second straight day of less than 200,000 cases. 190,16 to be precise.

    Seven Day averages
    18th - 224,273
    19th - 220,732
    20th - 220,062
    21st - 220,102
    22nd - 219,591
    23rd - 217,019
    24th - 212,940
    25th - 198,131
    26th - 193,508
    27th - 187,184
    28th - 185,202
    29th - 184,251
    30th - 185,419
    31st - 190,091
    1st - 200,438
    2nd - 210,667
    3rd - 218,648
    4th - 218,967

    The eagle eye observer will note all the numbers have changed. I guess they backloaded some cases. The peak is still on the 18th. The number is slightly higher. We had a mini-peak a few days ago and have had a pullback since then. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

    California had 32K new cases on the 4th.
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Back over 200K cases in a day. 225,558 to be precise. Texas and California both over 30K.

    Seven Day averages
    18th - 224,273
    19th - 220,732
    20th - 220,062
    21st - 220,102
    22nd - 219,591
    23rd - 217,019
    24th - 212,940
    25th - 198,131
    26th - 193,508
    27th - 187,184
    28th - 185,202
    29th - 184,251
    30th - 185,419
    31st - 190,091
    1st - 200,438
    2nd - 210,667
    3rd - 218,648
    4th - 218,966
    5th - 222,623

    So we are getting real close to breaking the peak from 18 Dec.
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Soon we'll break the back of this disease with a 99.7% survival rate.

    Awesome. Take that media!

  7. #6
    Administrator Boss-Hog's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo View Post
    Soon we'll break the back of this disease with a 99.7% survival rate.

    Awesome. Take that media!
    If you're going to post in this thread, you need to keep your comments on topic to the thread's purpose. These were not.

  8. #7
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    A really high day. 260K. The top 5 states total over 100K all by themselves. We now have exceeded the 7 Day peak established on Dec 18th. Today is the new peak for now.

    Seven Day averages
    18th - 224,273
    19th - 220,732
    20th - 220,062
    21st - 220,102
    22nd - 219,591
    23rd - 217,019
    24th - 212,940
    25th - 198,131
    26th - 193,508
    27th - 187,184
    28th - 185,202
    29th - 184,251
    30th - 185,419
    31st - 190,091
    1st - 200,438
    2nd - 210,667
    3rd - 218,648
    4th - 220,236
    5th - 225,199
    6th - 228,891

    They backfilled some numbers, and we first actually broke the 7 day peak yesterday and then exceeded it again today.
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

  9. #8
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    The game has changed. We've gone from seeing it we can hold a peak on Dec 18th. (We could not), to one of ever higher peaks, hoping for eventually a pullback. It was not today, we had 274K

    We've now had a higher high every day since the 29th.

    Seven Day averages
    29th - 184,251
    30th - 185,419
    31st - 190,091
    1st - 200,438
    2nd - 210,667
    3rd - 218,648
    4th - 220,236
    5th - 225,199
    6th - 228,925
    7th - 233,401
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

  10. #9
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Wow..... it was a bad day. 301,655 new cases. Worst day ever. 50K in California alone.

    Seven Day averages
    29th - 184,251
    30th - 185,419
    31st - 190,091
    1st - 200,438
    2nd - 210,667
    3rd - 218,648
    4th - 220,236
    5th - 225,346
    6th - 229,079
    7th - 234,486
    8th - 245,328
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

  11. #10
    Member forfreelin04's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Thanks for doing this Jax. It's just plain factual news without commentary. AHHH... the good ole days.

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  13. #11
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Quote Originally Posted by Boss-Hog View Post
    If you're going to post in this thread, you need to keep your comments on topic to the thread's purpose. These were not.
    I.e. panic-mongering?

  14. #12
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Another bad day. Just not quite as bad as yesterdays. 249,519. That results in a hew high 7 day average.

    Seven Day averages
    29th - 184,251
    30th - 185,419
    31st - 190,091
    1st - 200,438
    2nd - 210,667
    3rd - 218,648
    4th - 220,236
    5th - 225,346
    6th - 229,079
    7th - 234,684
    8th - 246,390
    9th - 248,042
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

  15. #13
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    A much lower day. 213,453. Weekend lull? California was still pretty high with 42K cases. 7 Day averages still heading up, hitting 250,000.

    Seven Day averages
    29th - 184,251
    30th - 185,419
    31st - 190,091
    1st - 200,438
    2nd - 210,667
    3rd - 218,648
    4th - 220,236
    5th - 225,346
    6th - 229,079
    7th - 234,684
    8th - 246,338
    9th - 248,645
    10th - 250,368
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

  16. #14
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    So another day of "relatively lower numbers". 214,683. California and Texas are 58K of those. 7 Day average still inches up. There's a chance this is the peak if numbers are down again tomorrow. Edit - I think we need 2 more days of 225,000 or less.

    Seven Day averages
    29th - 184,251
    30th - 185,419
    31st - 190,091
    1st - 200,438
    2nd - 210,667
    3rd - 218,648
    4th - 220,236
    5th - 225,346
    6th - 229,079
    7th - 234,697
    8th - 246,460
    9th - 248,180
    10th - 251,952
    11th - 254,183
    Last edited by JaxRed; 01-11-2021 at 10:20 PM.
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

  17. #15
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Another day with a number below the 7 Day average. 222,121. For the first time in a long time the 7 Day average has decreased. Can this represent the peak? Between 750K vaccinations a day and 225K people catching the virus (most of who will survive and be immune), that's a million folks a day that won't be getting the virus in the future. At some point that has to have an impact.

    29th - 184,251
    30th - 185,419
    31st - 190,091
    1st - 200,438
    2nd - 210,667
    3rd - 218,648
    4th - 220,236
    5th - 225,346
    6th - 229,079
    7th - 234,697
    8th - 246,460
    9th - 248,180
    10th - 251,952
    11th - 254,598
    12th - 252,800
    Last edited by JaxRed; 01-12-2021 at 10:39 PM.
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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