Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

[JaxRed]

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
17th - 33,588
18th - 35,306
19th - 37,145
20th - 39,266
21st - 42,068

[Boston Red]

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
17th - 33,588
18th - 35,306
19th - 37,145
20th - 39,266
21st - 42,068

The 4th of July was awesome. Everything since not so much.

[JaxRed]

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
17th - 33,588
18th - 35,306
19th - 37,145
20th - 39,266
21st - 42,068
22nd - 46,308

[JaxRed]

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
17th - 33,588
18th - 35,306
19th - 37,145
20th - 39,266
21st - 42,068
22nd - 46,308
23rd - 49,800

[Sea Ray]

That trend up is troubling but we're still in much better shape than where we were at this time last yr when our 7 day avg was in excess of 67K. It's all a matter of where this thing is going to peak

[Bob Sheed]

That trend up is troubling but we're still in much better shape than where we were at this time last yr when our 7 day avg was in excess of 67K. It's all a matter of where this thing is going to peak

Maybe because we didn't have a vaccine this time last year?

You're comparing apples and football stadiums.

[Sea Ray]

Maybe because we didn't have a vaccine this time last year?

You're comparing apples and football stadiums.

The vaccine is most certainly the reason. My point stands. Even though we were wearing masks and social distancing, thanks to the vaccine, we're still in better shape even with this new variant

[JaxRed]

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
17th - 33,588
18th - 35,306
19th - 37,145
20th - 39,266
21st - 42,068
22nd - 46,308
23rd - 49,800
24th - 53,266
25th - 53,974

[Boston Red]

24th - 53,266
25th - 53,974

Ooh, that's nice. If this is as bad as it gets, it's essentially a false alarm, which would be awesome. Certainly not counting on that, though. I'm afraid we're sort of in groundhog's day land (six more weeks of Covid).

[JaxRed]

I had been letting the numbers backfill because our worst state (Florida) had been slow reporting numbers. And now the single day number for the 28th (not an average) is 84,534.

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
17th - 33,588
18th - 35,306
19th - 37,145
20th - 39,266
21st - 42,792
22nd - 46,484
23rd - 50,629
24th - 54,100
25th - 56,976
26th - 59,404
27th - 63,668
28th - 67,293

[bing]

You havw data going back to last sept-dec? I'd be interested to see the slope it increased with compared to the current progression.

[Bob Sheed]

Well the totals now are as high as they were before most of us were eligible for the vaccine, so there's that...

[JaxRed]

29th raw number 92,485

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
17th - 33,588
18th - 35,306
19th - 37,145
20th - 39,266
21st - 42,792
22nd - 46,484
23rd - 50,629
24th - 54,100
25th - 56,976
26th - 59,404
27th - 63,668
28th - 67,293
29th - 71,781

[Todd Gack]

I had been letting the numbers backfill because our worst state (Florida) had been slow reporting numbers. And now the single day number for the 28th (not an average) is 84,534.

Seven Day Averages -

Jan
10th - 252,398
11th - 255,260
18th - 212,689
25th - 175,473

Feb
1st - 148,380
8th - 112,622
15th - 89,437
22nd - 69,588

Mar
1st - 69,309
8th - 59,152
15th - 55,835
22nd - 57,008
29th - 64,678

April
5th - 65,723
12th - 70,102
13th - 72,314
14th - 72,845
19th - 69,697
26th - 58,371

May
3rd - 50,806
10th - 40,395
17th - 32,081
24th - 25,405
31st - 18,881

June
7th - 15,686
14th - 13,189
21st - 12.048
28th - 12,605

July
5th - 13,854
12th - 21,984
17th - 33,588
18th - 35,306
19th - 37,145
20th - 39,266
21st - 42,792
22nd - 46,484
23rd - 50,629
24th - 54,100
25th - 56,976
26th - 59,404
27th - 63,668
28th - 67,293

Florida and other similar states will start peaking soon (within a week, maybe already?) in the South. I predict, if you see a rise, it'll be because of other states in more northern latitudes rising.

[Sea Ray]

Well the totals now are as high as they were before most of us were eligible for the vaccine, so there's that...

Think of it as the unvaccinated getting vaccinated. These folks are gaining immunity naturally. They're risking their lives by doing it this way but to each his own