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Thread: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

  1. #76
    Member Strikes Out Looking's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    I know its popular to blame the plateaus on the variants - but my take is that its from Superbowl parties and college campuses (Kids got back to campus in late Jan.) where unvaccinated people practiced poor behaviors. I believe we'll see the numbers slowly start to go down again as these events are over- in some places we'll see spikes from St. Patrick's day, but as more are vaccinated, the plateaus will be less and less. This is just my guess, I'm not a scientist but I think social behavior causes the spikes more than anything else.


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  3. #77
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    This was more plateau than spike. It went up 2,000 over the course of 4 days. It had been dropping 2,000 to 3,000 daily. If the decline that started in last couple days continues, it will even be hard to spot this on the chart after a week or so.

    But.... have to keep the decline going and hope it's not a weekend thing. Keep them vaccines coming.
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
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  4. #78
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Another REALLY low number. Florida in particular seems low compared to other days. But we just report the numbers. 53,147

    Average has now declined 4 straight days. (but not by much)

    Seven Day Averages

    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,857
    1st - 148,380
    2nd - 143,101
    3rd - 136,489
    4th - 130,933
    5th - 125,533
    6th - 120,227
    7th - 117,373
    8th - 112,622
    9th - 110,243
    10th -108,039
    11th - 105,527
    12th - 101,421
    13th - 98,367
    14th - 94,829
    15th - 89,437
    16th - 84,696
    17th - 81,033
    18th - 75,779
    19th - 72,724
    20th - 70,434
    21st - 69,244
    22nd - 69,588
    23rd - 70,658
    24th - 70,917
    25th - 71,727
    26th - 71,256
    27th - 70,375
    28th - 69,518
    1st - 68,664
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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  5. #79
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Nice, beats the low from the 21st, so the average is breaking new ground to the downside.

  6. #80
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Another nice number. 56,890. Another new low

    Seven Day Averages

    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,857
    1st - 148,380
    2nd - 143,101
    3rd - 136,489
    4th - 130,933
    5th - 125,533
    6th - 120,227
    7th - 117,373
    8th - 112,622
    9th - 110,243
    10th -108,039
    11th - 105,527
    12th - 101,421
    13th - 98,367
    14th - 94,829
    15th - 89,437
    16th - 84,696
    17th - 81,033
    18th - 75,779
    19th - 72,724
    20th - 70,434
    21st - 69,244
    22nd - 69,588
    23rd - 70,658
    24th - 70,917
    25th - 71,724
    26th - 71,253
    27th - 70,372
    28th - 69,515
    1st - 68,718
    2nd - 66,307
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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    RiverRat13 (03-03-2021)

  8. #81
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    66,879. Just about equal to the 7 Day average.

    Seven Day Averages

    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,857
    1st - 148,380
    2nd - 143,101
    3rd - 136,489
    4th - 130,933
    5th - 125,533
    6th - 120,227
    7th - 117,373
    8th - 112,622
    9th - 110,243
    10th -108,039
    11th - 105,527
    12th - 101,421
    13th - 98,367
    14th - 94,829
    15th - 89,437
    16th - 84,696
    17th - 81,033
    18th - 75,779
    19th - 72,724
    20th - 70,434
    21st - 69,244
    22nd - 69,588
    23rd - 70,684
    24th - 70,944
    25th - 71,752
    26th - 71,281
    27th - 70,399
    28th - 69,635
    1st - 68,940
    2nd - 66,596
    3rd - 65,302
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

    https://redsintelligence.com/smforum/index.php

  9. #82
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    A slight up day. We're finding it hard to consistently break into the 50's. 68,321. Still the average comes down again.


    Seven Day Averages

    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,857
    1st - 148,380
    2nd - 143,101
    3rd - 136,489
    4th - 130,933
    5th - 125,533
    6th - 120,227
    7th - 117,373
    8th - 112,622
    9th - 110,243
    10th -108,039
    11th - 105,527
    12th - 101,421
    13th - 98,367
    14th - 94,829
    15th - 89,437
    16th - 84,696
    17th - 81,033
    18th - 75,779
    19th - 72,724
    20th - 70,434
    21st - 69,244
    22nd - 69,588
    23rd - 70,684
    24th - 70,944
    25th - 71,752
    26th - 71,281
    27th - 70,399
    28th - 69,635
    1st - 69,068
    2nd - 66,746
    3rd - 65,520
    4th - 64,110
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

    https://redsintelligence.com/smforum/index.php

  10. #83
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Once again a day in the high 60's. 67,281. Seven day average goes down still

    Seven Day Averages

    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,857
    1st - 148,380
    2nd - 143,101
    3rd - 136,489
    4th - 130,933
    5th - 125,533
    6th - 120,227
    7th - 117,373
    8th - 112,622
    9th - 110,243
    10th -108,039
    11th - 105,527
    12th - 101,421
    13th - 98,367
    14th - 94,829
    15th - 89,437
    16th - 84,696
    17th - 81,033
    18th - 75,779
    19th - 72,724
    20th - 70,434
    21st - 69,244
    22nd - 69,588
    23rd - 70,684
    24th - 70,944
    25th - 71,752
    26th - 71,281
    27th - 70,399
    28th - 69,635
    1st - 69,068
    2nd - 66,746
    3rd - 65,520
    4th - 64,158
    5th - 62,158
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

    https://redsintelligence.com/smforum/index.php

  11. #84
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    We get a number in the 50's. Of course it's a weekend. 58,228. NY's number much higher than the rest. Glancing at their chart, their average has been slowly inching up for about 2 weeks.

    Seven Day Averages

    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,857
    1st - 148,380
    2nd - 143,101
    3rd - 136,489
    4th - 130,933
    5th - 125,533
    6th - 120,227
    7th - 117,373
    8th - 112,622
    9th - 110,243
    10th -108,039
    11th - 105,527
    12th - 101,421
    13th - 98,367
    14th - 94,829
    15th - 89,437
    16th - 84,696
    17th - 81,033
    18th - 75,779
    19th - 72,724
    20th - 70,434
    21st - 69,244
    22nd - 69,588
    23rd - 70,684
    24th - 70,944
    25th - 71,752
    26th - 71,281
    27th - 70,399
    28th - 69,635
    1st - 69,068
    2nd - 66,746
    3rd - 65,520
    4th - 64,158
    5th - 62,438
    5th - 61,387
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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  12. #85
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    A really low number. 41,967. We break below 60,000 for a 7 day average. Not by much. It may not withstand the eventual backfill of numbers.

    Seven Day Averages

    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,857
    1st - 148,380
    2nd - 143,101
    3rd - 136,489
    4th - 130,933
    5th - 125,533
    6th - 120,227
    7th - 117,373
    8th - 112,622
    9th - 110,243
    10th -108,039
    11th - 105,527
    12th - 101,421
    13th - 98,367
    14th - 94,829
    15th - 89,437
    16th - 84,696
    17th - 81,033
    18th - 75,779
    19th - 72,724
    20th - 70,434
    21st - 69,244
    22nd - 69,588
    23rd - 70,684
    24th - 70,944
    25th - 71,752
    26th - 71,281
    27th - 70,399
    28th - 69,635
    1st - 69,068
    2nd - 66,746
    3rd - 65,520
    4th - 64,158
    5th - 62,438
    5th - 61,433
    6th - 59,777
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

    https://redsintelligence.com/smforum/index.php

  13. #86
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    I just wanted to take a second to point out how fantastic these numbers are and how much I enjoy seeing them each night. Thanks for doing this!

  14. Likes:

    cumberlandreds (03-08-2021)

  15. #87
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Quote Originally Posted by Boston Red View Post
    I just wanted to take a second to point out how fantastic these numbers are and how much I enjoy seeing them each night. Thanks for doing this!
    I couldn't agree more

  16. #88
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    I’ve been a big fan of the Covid Tracking Project (second to this thread of course!) on Twitter but yesterday was their last day.

    Any good daily data-driven Twitter feeds to follow which include good discussion afterwards?

  17. #89
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Wow for a Monday, we had a pretty low number. 45,116. 7 Day average falls to 58,798.

    Seven Day Averages

    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,857
    1st - 148,380
    2nd - 143,101
    3rd - 136,489
    4th - 130,933
    5th - 125,533
    6th - 120,227
    7th - 117,373
    8th - 112,622
    9th - 110,243
    10th -108,039
    11th - 105,527
    12th - 101,421
    13th - 98,367
    14th - 94,829
    15th - 89,437
    16th - 84,696
    17th - 81,033
    18th - 75,779
    19th - 72,724
    20th - 70,434
    21st - 69,244
    22nd - 69,588
    23rd - 70,684
    24th - 70,944
    25th - 71,752
    26th - 71,281
    27th - 70,399
    28th - 69,635
    1st - 69,078
    2nd - 66,764
    3rd - 65,538
    4th - 64,172
    5th - 62,450
    6th - 60,239
    7th - 58,798
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

    https://redsintelligence.com/smforum/index.php

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    Sea Ray (03-09-2021)

  19. #90
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Today's number is likely to be very inflated. Missouri is playing with their numbers and is dumping a 50K figure into today's cases

    https://www.examiner.net/story/news/...ri/4639015001/

    BostonRed, you know what's going on with your neighbor state?


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