Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

[JaxRed]

We had 162,574 on 28th. Don't want to be alarmist but that is third day in a row with a higher number. Today's number was right on the trend line. Peak on 11th holds. Trend line down again.

Seven Day Averages
10th - 251,952
11th - 254,858
12th - 254,509
13th - 250,532
14th - 244,186
15th - 235,734
16th - 228,350
17th - 222,170
18th - 212,340
19th - 204,330
20th - 197,649
21st - 192,053
22nd -184,437
23rd - 179,873
24th - 174,996
25th - 175,216
26th - 171,959
27th - 167,537
28th - 162,849

[JaxRed]

We had 169,033 on 29th. This sure seems like we have plateaued. 4th day in a row with a higher number. Today's number was above trend line. Peak on 11th holds. Trend line down again.

Seven Day Averages
10th - 251,952
11th - 254,858
12th - 254,509
13th - 250,532
14th - 244,186
15th - 235,734
16th - 228,350
17th - 222,170
18th - 212,340
19th - 204,330
20th - 197,649
21st - 192,053
22nd -184,437
23rd - 179,873
24th - 174,996
25th - 175,216
26th - 171,959
27th - 167,702
28th - 163,500
29th - 159,725

[kaldaniels]

Here’s another good stat. Almost down 40% in the 7-day average from the peak, which was less than 20 days ago.

[Redsfaithful]

Ohio's numbers are dropping, but it's interesting to me how quickly I anchor to new realities, because they are numbers that would have distressed me deeply last October (let alone last April) and yet I feel some relief looking at them every day.

[Strikes Out Looking]

We'll likely plateau over the next week, then a week after the Super Bowl go up a bit, go down until St. Patrick's day, plateau again, go down until Easter, then plateau.

All the plateus will be lower as more people are vaccinated, but it'll take time to go down to last summer levels.

[JaxRed]

Don't know if it's a weekend thing, but we had good day on the 30th, 140,732. Peak on 11th holds. Trend line down again.

Seven Day Averages
10th - 251,952
11th - 254,858
12th - 254,509
13th - 250,532
14th - 244,186
15th - 235,734
16th - 228,350
17th - 222,170
18th - 212,340
19th - 204,330
20th - 197,649
21st - 192,053
22nd -184,437
23rd - 179,873
24th - 174,996
25th - 175,216
26th - 171,959
27th - 167,702
28th - 163,500
29th - 160,127
30th - 155,368

We're now almost 100K off the peak from 3 weeks ago.

[JaxRed]

We had a VERY good day today (31st). 107,856. I assume some weekend effect in there.


10th - 251,952 15th - 235,734 20th - 197,649 25th - 175,216 30th - 155,893
11th - 254,858 16th - 228,350 21st - 192,053 26th - 171,959 31st - 150,903
12th - 254,509 17th - 222,170 22nd -184,437 27th - 167,702
13th - 250,532 18th - 212,340 23rd - 179,873 28th - 163,500
14th - 244,186 19th - 204,330 24th - 174,996 29th - 160,128

We are now down over 100,000 a day from the peak.

[kaldaniels]

Ohio's numbers are dropping, but it's interesting to me how quickly I anchor to new realities, because they are numbers that would have distressed me deeply last October (let alone last April) and yet I feel some relief looking at them every day.

Reminds of the effect where when drinking, you “feel” the effects of alcohol way more on your way up the BAC chart than on the decreasing side, at the same BAC.

It’s crude in this case but it’s a “been there, done that” effect.

[kaldaniels]

If things follow the trend, we’ll have a good day tomorrow, with increasing numbers as the week goes on due to reporting lags. So be sure everyone to follow the 7-day trend.

Today we were down 20-25 percent from a week ago as far as the Sunday number goes.

[Redsfaithful]

Almost 10% of the country is vaccinated now, add that to the number of people who have some immunity because they had the virus and I have to think that total is having a real effect at this point.

[Todd Gack]

Ohio's numbers are dropping, but it's interesting to me how quickly I anchor to new realities, because they are numbers that would have distressed me deeply last October (let alone last April) and yet I feel some relief looking at them every day.

After a year of this thing, it's pretty apparent seasonality is a HUGE cause of many of these spikes. Indiana has dropped like a rock like pretty much most of the states around us. Texas, Cali, Florida are all high right now. Etc, countless other examples. This is a great time for vaccine rollout. The only thing that can slow this vaccine right now is a huge snowstorm or. . uhh. .. . . crap.

[Strikes Out Looking]

I think the weather across the country may account for some days being way up and/or down over the next week or so.

[JaxRed]

A pretty good day. 125,454. Drops average below 150K

Seven Day Averages
10th - 251,952
11th - 254,858
12th - 254,509
13th - 250,532
14th - 244,186
15th - 235,734
16th - 228,350
17th - 222,170
18th - 212,340
19th - 204,330
20th - 197,649
21st - 192,053
22nd -180,005
23rd - 170,006
24th - 175,019
25th - 175,344
26th - 172,092
27th - 167,833
28th - 163,500
29th - 160,246
30th - 156,220
31st - 151,611
1st - 147,839

[JaxRed]

Down we go again. 114,703. The lowest number since November 4th.

Seven Day Averages
10th - 251,952
11th - 254,858
12th - 254,509
13th - 250,532
14th - 244,186
15th - 235,734
16th - 228,350
17th - 222,170
18th - 212,340
19th - 204,330
20th - 197,649
21st - 192,053
22nd -180,005
23rd - 170,006
24th - 175,019
25th - 175,344
26th - 172,092
27th - 167,833
28th - 163,500
29th - 160,246
30th - 156,220
31st - 151,699
1st - 148,021
2nd - 142,512

[JaxRed]

We beat yesterday's really low number, but just by a little. 113,459. The 7 day average goes down again.

Seven Day Averages
10th - 251,952
11th - 254,858
12th - 254,509
13th - 250,532
14th - 244,186
15th - 235,734
16th - 228,350
17th - 222,170
18th - 212,340
19th - 204,330
20th - 197,649
21st - 192,053
22nd -180,005
23rd - 170,006
24th - 175,019
25th - 175,344
26th - 172,092
27th - 167,963
28th - 163,753
29th - 160,376
30th - 156,350
31st - 151,830
1st - 148,163
2nd - 142,853
3rd - 136,003