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Thread: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

  1. #46
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    An up day. 121,627. Still below the moving day average, but hate to see any up day. The 7 day average goes down again.

    Seven Day Averages
    10th - 251,952
    11th - 254,858
    12th - 254,509
    13th - 250,532
    14th - 244,186
    15th - 235,734
    16th - 228,350
    17th - 222,170
    18th - 212,340
    19th - 204,330
    20th - 197,649
    21st - 192,053
    22nd -180,005
    23rd - 170,006
    24th - 175,019
    25th - 175,344
    26th - 172,092
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,830
    1st - 148,360
    2nd - 143,032
    3rd - 136,260
    4th - 129,894
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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  3. #47
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Another slight up day. 126,125. Again below the moving day average, but not by much. The 7 day average goes down again.

    Seven Day Averages
    10th - 251,952
    11th - 254,858
    12th - 254,509
    13th - 250,532
    14th - 244,186
    15th - 235,734
    16th - 228,350
    17th - 222,170
    18th - 212,340
    19th - 204,330
    20th - 197,649
    21st - 192,053
    22nd -180,005
    23rd - 170,006
    24th - 175,019
    25th - 175,344
    26th - 172,092
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,830
    1st - 148,360
    2nd - 143,080
    3rd - 136,330
    4th - 130,438
    5th - 123,876
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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  4. #48
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Had a nice day today. Only 105,983. Weekend effect? But 7 Day average continues it's plunge. Down to 119,048. First time below 120K.

    Another slight up day. 126,125. Again below the moving day average, but not by much. The 7 day average goes down again.

    Seven Day Averages
    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,830
    1st - 148,360
    2nd - 143,086
    3rd - 136,330
    4th - 130,496
    5th - 124,781
    6th - 119.048
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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  5. #49
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Had a VERY low number today. Below 100K. 89,691 So maybe not just weekend effect, but Superbowl Weekend Effect?

    Seven Day Averages
    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,830
    1st - 148,360
    2nd - 143,086
    3rd - 136,330
    4th - 130,496
    5th - 124,781
    6th - 119,345
    7th - 116,256
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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  6. #50
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Had another VERY low number today. 87,031. Will be interesting to see whether there has been a reporting delay or this is the new normal.

    Seven Day Averages
    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,830
    1st - 148,375
    2nd - 143,090
    3rd - 136,383
    4th - 130,521
    5th - 124,805
    6th - 119,432
    7th - 116,563
    8th - 110,694
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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  7. #51
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Number did bump up but stayed below 100K, and will drive average lower. 95,542

    Seven Day Averages
    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,830
    1st - 148,375
    2nd - 143,090
    3rd - 136,383
    4th - 130,521
    5th - 124,857
    6th - 119,504
    7th - 116,629
    8th - 111,233
    9th - 108,254
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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  8. #52
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    4th day in a row below 100K. 96,806. 7 day average will come down again.

    Seven Day Averages
    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,830
    1st - 148,375
    2nd - 143,090
    3rd - 136,383
    4th - 130,521
    5th - 124,857
    6th - 119,504
    7th - 116,629
    8th - 111,233
    9th - 108,320
    10th -105,798
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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  9. #53
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Bumped up above 100K. 3rd day with increase. 103,481. Still below old 7 day average, so will come down again. But new 7 day average is under today's number.

    Seven Day Averages
    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,830
    1st - 148,375
    2nd - 143,090
    3rd - 136,383
    4th - 130,521
    5th - 124,857
    6th - 119,504
    7th - 116,629
    8th - 111,233
    9th - 108,442
    10th -106,018
    11th - 102,391
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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  10. #54
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Slightly lower number today. 100,328. Below old 7 day average, so down again. It goes below 100K for first time. THat means we have to start getting lower numbers or we will plateau.

    4 states are a huge chunk of the numbers. Cal and Texas alone are 20%. Add in NY and Florida and you are up to 35%.

    Seven Day Averages
    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,830
    1st - 148,375
    2nd - 143,090
    3rd - 136,383
    4th - 130,521
    5th - 124,857
    6th - 119,504
    7th - 116,629
    8th - 111,233
    9th - 108,442
    10th -106,018
    11th - 102,391
    12th - 98,929
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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  11. #55
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    We needed a lower number and whether it was the weekend or the cold, or the vaccine, we got it. 86,275.

    4 states are a huge chunk of the numbers. Cal and Texas, NY and Florida and are almost 40%.

    Seven Day Averages
    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,830
    1st - 148,375
    2nd - 143,090
    3rd - 136,383
    4th - 130,521
    5th - 124,857
    6th - 119,504
    7th - 116,629
    8th - 111,233
    9th - 108,442
    10th -106,141
    11th - 103,517
    12th - 99,498
    13th - 96,303
    Last edited by JaxRed; 02-14-2021 at 01:23 AM.
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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  12. #56
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Those 4 states make up about 35% of the US population so that doesn’t seem out of whack too much.

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    JaxRed (02-14-2021),M2 (02-15-2021)

  14. #57
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    OK, I thought they'd be less.
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

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  15. #58
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    In Indiana, 60% of the 70+ population has been vaccinated. There's very early evidence that the vaccine is starting to work its magic for that age group.

  16. #59
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    Maybe it's (freezing) weekend effect, but we had the lowest number since Oct 23rd. 64,297. Deaths took a tumble too. 1,111. I KNOW there's always a weekend effect there.


    Seven Day Averages

    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,830
    1st - 148,375
    2nd - 143,090
    3rd - 136,383
    4th - 130,521
    5th - 124,857
    6th - 119,504
    7th - 116,629
    8th - 111,233
    9th - 108,442
    10th -106,141
    11th - 103,517
    12th - 99,498
    13th - 96,333
    14th - 92,487
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

    https://redsintelligence.com/smforum/index.php

  17. #60
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Monitoring the 7 Day Covid Trend Line. Looking for a peak

    It's probably the Holiday snowpocalypse , but we had even lower numbers today. 52,865 with less than 1,000 deaths. 954.


    Seven Day Averages

    10th - 252,398
    11th - 255,260
    12th - 254,607
    13th - 250,943
    14th - 244,551
    15th - 236,084
    16th - 228,802
    17th - 222,516
    18th - 212,689
    19th - 204,907
    20th - 197,955
    21st - 192,337
    22nd -184,698
    23rd - 180,135
    24th - 175,239
    25th - 175,473
    26th - 172,222
    27th - 167,963
    28th - 163,753
    29th - 160,376
    30th - 156,350
    31st - 151,830
    1st - 148,375
    2nd - 143,090
    3rd - 136,383
    4th - 130,521
    5th - 124,857
    6th - 119,515
    7th - 116,640
    8th - 111,241
    9th - 108,450
    10th -106,155
    11th - 103,529
    12th - 99,503
    13th - 96,501
    14th - 92,966
    15th - 87,603
    Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
    Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"

    https://redsintelligence.com/smforum/index.php


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