This favored right now stuff means nothing. These teams are all incomplete. History shows that these other teams that have holes that put them behind the reds today will fill those holes from the available talent and pass the reds by while the Reds will make small moves field a team but barely move the needle. That's what I expect to happen and until this long running sad sack team proves otherwise, it's what I'll continue to believe.
If the Reds sign a SS and nobody else makes a move, the Reds probably win a terrible division with 85 or less wins. If other teams fill their holes as well, signing a SS won't be anough to finish above .500