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Thread: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

  1. #61
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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    You keep saying this, but they're favored to win the division right now even without a SS. Add a SS and a couple of good pitchers and I suspect they jump to clear favorites in the NL Central.
    This favored right now stuff means nothing. These teams are all incomplete. History shows that these other teams that have holes that put them behind the reds today will fill those holes from the available talent and pass the reds by while the Reds will make small moves field a team but barely move the needle. That's what I expect to happen and until this long running sad sack team proves otherwise, it's what I'll continue to believe.

    If the Reds sign a SS and nobody else makes a move, the Reds probably win a terrible division with 85 or less wins. If other teams fill their holes as well, signing a SS won't be anough to finish above .500
    Last edited by mth123; 01-15-2021 at 10:59 AM.
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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    This favored right now stuff means nothing. These teams are all incomplete. History shows that these other teams that have holes that put them behind the reds today will fill those holes from the available talent and pass the reds by while the Reds will make small moves field a team but barely move the needle. That's what I expect to happen and until this long running sad sack team proves otherwise, it's what I'll continue to believe.

    If the Reds sign a SS and nobody else makes a move, the Reds probably win a terrible division with 85 or less wins. If other teams fill their holes as well, signing a SS won't be anough to finish above .500
    Your made up win total projections mean nothing too. If they win the division, chances are outstanding they win 90+ games. And if you think they could win the division with less than 85 wins, you should take that to Vegas because you could make a lot of money if you turned out to be correct.

    And recent history (the past two winters) has shown the Reds have done more to fill holes than other NL Central teams. It's why they're currently favored to win the division. If they get a SS and some pitching depth, they don't really have any glaring holes. Far from a perfect team, potential that it goes wrong, but pretty much a full checklist in terms of building out a roster.
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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    Kralll was quoted saying the money would be reallocated to improve the team.
    As I recall, Nick Krall said that about the Iglesias trade. That saved the Reds about $7 million net of the cash payment and Noe Ramirez salary.

    Did Nick ever say or suggest that the $40+ million of overall salary reduction so far this off-season would mostly be reinvested in players?

    I don’t recall it, if he did I’d be interested to see the quote. There’s no doubt Reds will add some more players but I’m not sure Krall ever suggested they had substantial room to add.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-15-2021 at 11:29 AM.

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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    As I recall, Nick Krall said that about the Iglesias trade. That saved the Reds about $7 million net of the cash payment and Noe Ramirez salary.

    Did Nick ever say or suggest that the $40+ million of overall salary reduction so far this off-season would mostly be reinvested in players?

    I don’t recall it, if he did I’d be interested to see the quote.
    I believe he was saying it about the non-tenders too.

    I agree with Ron. I think the Reds will us the money saved from the non-tenders and Iglesias trade to get a SS and some pen help. The payroll will be lower than it was in 2020, but mostly by Bauer leaving the Reds not spending that money.

    It’s not that hard to understand. The payroll will be lower, but not slashed.
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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I believe he was saying it about the non-tenders too.

    I agree with Ron. I think the Reds will us the money saved from the non-tenders and Iglesias trade to get a SS and some pen help. The payroll will be lower than it was in 2020, but mostly by Bauer leaving the Reds not spending that money.

    It’s not that hard to understand. The payroll will be lower, but not slashed.
    Slashed means cut. It doesn’t imply any particular amount. But if you want to make that distinction -

    Reds 40-man payroll for tax (Cots) last year was about $165 million. If they are about $135 million in 2021, that would be a slash. It’s what I expect.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-15-2021 at 12:10 PM.

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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Slashed means cut. It doesn’t imply any particular amount. But if you want to make that distinction -

    Reds 40-man payroll for tax (Cots) last year was about $165 million. If they are about $135 million in 2021, that would be a slash. It’s what I expect.
    The luxury tax figure doesn't mean anything for the reds. The payroll has gone from about $146 million to $126 million, a cut of about $20 million so far.

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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Slashed means cut. It doesn’t imply any particular amount. But if you want to make that distinction -

    Reds 40-man payroll for tax (Cots) last year was about $165 million. If they are about $135 million in 2021, that would be a slash. It’s what I expect.
    I think the argument is over whether the Reds are trying to compete in 2021 or not. If they sign a SS and some pen help, I would say that means they are trying to compete.
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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by CaiGuy View Post
    The luxury tax figure doesn't mean anything for the reds. The payroll has gone from about $146 million to $126 million, a cut of about $20 million so far.
    Since they lost Bauer, Disco, Galvis, Iglesias, Bradley, Goodwin, Casali, I don’t see how that’s possible. They lost far more than $20 million. Bauer alone is almost $20 million based on last year.

    There will be increases and acquisitions, but I’d like to see the sources for this.

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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Since they lost Bauer, Disco, Galvis, Iglesias, Bradley, Goodwin, Casali, I don’t see how that’s possible. They lost far more than $20 million. Bauer alone is almost $20 million based on last year.

    There will be increases and acquisitions, but I’d like to see the sources for this.
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1520401900

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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Since they lost Bauer, Disco, Galvis, Iglesias, Bradley, Goodwin, Casali, I don’t see how that’s possible. They lost far more than $20 million. Bauer alone is almost $20 million based on last year.

    There will be increases and acquisitions, but I’d like to see the sources for this.
    https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/reds

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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS


    This doesn’t show only a $20 million salary reduction. I don’t know what the backup is for that.

    Reds lost about $30 million just from three free agents alone, Bauer, Disco, Galvis. $7 million (net of Ramirez salary) from Iglesias trade. Three major non-tenders were $7-8 million based on 2020 salary (Bradley, Goodwin, Casali).

    Right there is about $44 million in payroll reduction. Not sure how it gets down to $20 million.

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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    This doesn’t show only a $20 million salary reduction. I don’t know what the backup is for that.

    Reds lost about $30 million just from three free agents alone, Bauer, Disco, Galvis. $7 million (net of Ramirez salary) from Iglesias trade. Three major non-tenders were $7-8 million based on 2020 salary (Bradley, Goodwin, Casali).

    Right there is about $44 million in payroll reduction. Not sure how it gets down to $20 million.
    are you including the arb players from today?
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    This doesn’t show only a $20 million salary reduction. I don’t know what the backup is for that.

    Reds lost about $30 million just from three free agents alone, Bauer, Disco, Galvis. $7 million (net of Ramirez salary) from Iglesias trade. Three major non-tenders were $7-8 million based on 2020 salary (Bradley, Goodwin, Casali).

    Right there is about $44 million in payroll reduction. Not sure how it gets down to $20 million.
    The slots for arb eligibles and pre-arb guys don't have numbers in them yet. Once those get filled in they probably end up somewhere between $20-$30 million lower before any new acquisitions enter the mix.
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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The slots for arb eligibles and pre-arb guys don't have numbers in them yet. Once those get filled in they probably end up somewhere between $20-$30 million lower before any new acquisitions enter the mix.
    An arbitration player got a salary last year. Michael Lorenzen got $3.725 million last year. The only change for 2021 is his increase, about $700 K. The five arbitration guys will tack on several million in increases, but it doesn’t change the $44 million salary reduction estimate that much.

    The sixth arbitration guy is Ramirez, already included in the $44 million general figure.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-15-2021 at 01:50 PM.

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    Re: Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    An arbitration player got a salary last year. Michael Lorenzen got $3.725 million last year. The only change for 2021 is his increase, about $700 K. The five arbitration guys will tack on several million in increases, but it doesn’t change the $44 million salary reduction estimate that much.

    The sixth arbitration guy is Ramirez, already included in the $44 million general figure.
    Reds were at $147MM last season. Currently projected at around $123 if you fill out the roster with league-minimum guys, plus or minus a few million depending on arb raises. After today we'll know the exact number.


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