Reds Negotiating with Marcus Semien SS

[M2]

An arbitration player got a salary last year. Michael Lorenzen got $3.725 million last year. The only change for 2021 is his increase, about $700 K. The five arbitration guys will tack on several million in increases, but it doesn’t change the $44 million salary reduction estimate that much.

The sixth arbitration guy is Ramirez, already included in the $44 million general figure.

I get that, but if you're looking at that particular chart, most of the arb and pre-arb guys have a blank in the 2021 column, which means the bottom line will increase as those number become known. Once you go through that exercise, it cuts down the 2020-to-2021 gap. B-Ref estimates they'll land at $117M with the current roster, which would be roughly $30M less than 2020.

[Kc61]

Reds were at $147MM last season. Currently projected at around $123 if you fill out the roster with league-minimum guys, plus or minus a few million depending on arb raises. After today we'll know the exact number.

Even if you don’t want to use the $166 million for tax purposes (doesn’t matter that Reds don’t pay luxury tax), the $147 million is low. It’s an opening day number, excludes Bradley, excludes Goodwin, etc.

Beyond that, I’ve identified $44 million in reductions. There will be several million added back via arbitration and other raises. Without acquisitions, I don’t know how you get to only a $24 million difference unless you include some more potential acquisitions.

I’d like to see an apples to apples comparison once the off-season ends.

[Kc61]

I get that, but if you're looking at that particular chart, most of the arb and pre-arb guys have a blank in the 2021 column, which means the bottom line will increase as those number become known. Once you go through that exercise, it cuts down the 2020-to-2021 gap. B-Ref estimates they'll land at $117M with the current roster, which would be roughly $30M less than 2020.

Not sure which chart you are now looking at M2. If it’s opening day 2020, that excludes Bradley and Goodwin, acquired later.

So figure a half season of each, we’re then at around $33 million of salary reduction.

That’s in the ballpark of what I expect the final reduction level to be.

It’ll depend of course on other adds and any more subtractions from the team.

[mth123]

Reds were at $147MM last season. Currently projected at around $123 if you fill out the roster with league-minimum guys, plus or minus a few million depending on arb raises. After today we'll know the exact number.

Doesn't this just make it worse though? They lost 4 pitchers, a catcher, A SS and an OF that were using around $44 Million. The arb guys are eating up around $20 Million of that. That leaves little money to replace/upgrade the departed talent. Giving these arb guys increase doesn't fill the picthing staff or SS or address the numberous other flaws on the roster.

So the Reds are reallocating the payroll as Krall said. Only its from the guys who left to the increases for the guys still here. That doesn't mean they are using it to add any talent. That's what I expect.They'll sign a cheap SS solution and a few lotto ticket arms to add to the mix and call it a day IMO. I'm starting to think Addison Russell might be the guy they end up with on a make good deal.

[M2]

That doesn't mean they are using it to add any talent.

They claimed they will. If they don't, then get angry. Right now there's a pile of free agents and very few teams have made moves in the trade market. I get that waiting is tedious, but that's where we are. They haven't spent it and they haven't not spent it. All we've got to go by is what they laid out as their offseason plan and that's still on the table.

[Kc61]

I don’t think there’s any question Reds will add some talent. Questions are -

Will they add anybody of significance?

Will they need to trade another salary to accomplish that?

Nightingale tweets that Reds are at about $120 million after arbitration signings. Should leave room for a shortstop, he says, Sounds right, but at what level?

[REDREAD]

Since they lost Bauer, Disco, Galvis, Iglesias, Bradley, Goodwin, Casali, I don’t see how that’s possible. They lost far more than $20 million. Bauer alone is almost $20 million based on last year.

There will be increases and acquisitions, but I’d like to see the sources for this.

I think the 20 million number includes raises for the guys they kept.

The amount "Cut" could be: add up what the payroll could have been if those players were kept or it could just be
(Last year's payroll - this year's payroll).. Either one is valid, I suppose. Looks like you are using the former, others
are using the latter.

[Kc61]

I think the 20 million number includes raises for the guys they kept.

The amount "Cut" could be: add up what the payroll could have been if those players were kept or it could just be
(Last year's payroll - this year's payroll).. Either one is valid, I suppose. Looks like you are using the former, others
are using the latter.

To be clear about my math (post 71 of this thread), I counted the 2020 salaries walking out the door this off-season at around $44 million. (Includes Iggy departure net of Ramirez acquisition.)

Let’s add in yesterday’s arbitration raises which were in the ballpark of $10 million. Excludes Ramirez who was counted above. $44 - 10 is a $34 million payroll reduction.

There could be substantial raises in existing LTCs. That is possible, haven’t looked into it. Doubt pre-arb raises make a difference, don’t even know what pre-arbs will make the team.

[CmdrCody]

Semien's career numbers would even be helpful. A 105 OPS+ from a pedestrian SS defender has value. (Last year, Reds' SS were 40(!) points below even that modest production.) I worry that all of Semien's number tanked last year-- and that 2019 looks like an extreme outlier. I suspect he may rebound a bit in a smaller park. ZiPS, fwiw, adores him. They project a .274/ .346/ .496/ .841 line. His 5.0 fWAR projection would be a massive improvement over Garcia's - 0.8 projection.

Were he to sign, I'd guess Semien would slot in at #2 in the order. (He bats RH.)

OF Akiyama
SS Semien
1B Votto
3B Suarez
2B Moustakas
RF Castellanos
OF Winker/ Senzel
C T. Stephenson/ Barnhart

With a DH, that lineup looks healthy and would, IMO, probably be the best in the NL Central. (This assumes the Cardinals will continue to cry poor, the Cubs won't sign anyone of consequence, and the Brewers continue with their retooling.)

Sorry but Votto isn’t a number three lineup guy anymore. That’s your best hitters spot. He hasn’t been that for two seasons.

[M2]

Sorry but Votto isn’t a number three lineup guy anymore. That’s your best hitters spot. He hasn’t been that for two seasons.

3rd in the starting lineup in OB, 2nd in OPS. That's a pretty standard #3 hitter profile.

[Mitri]

I don't care where they place them, that lineup with Semien in it looks lit.

[Alpha Zero]

I don't care where they place them, that lineup with Semien in it looks lit.

Assuming the DH is there, I’d like to see:

Shogo
Semien
Winker
Suarez
Moustakas
Castellanos
Votto
Senzel
Barnhart/Stephenson

I know it didn’t really work out last year, but that feels like a lineup with some length to it.

[Falls City Beer]

Assuming the DH is there, I’d like to see:

Shogo
Semien
Winker
Suarez
Moustakas
Castellanos
Votto
Senzel
Barnhart/Stephenson

I know it didn’t really work out last year, but that feels like a lineup with some length to it.

I like that lineup, especially Cast in the 6 spot.

[dfs]

Sorry but Votto isn’t a number three lineup guy anymore. That’s your best hitters spot. He hasn’t been that for two seasons.

Only Winker had a better OPS last year. Clearly Votto isn't what he was, but this team is that bad. Votto is likely your best hitter. Still.

[Ron Madden]

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Dodgers are among many teams in on the talented Marcus Semien