Reds are (slight) favorites to win the NL Central

[Bob Sheed]

https://www.cincinnati.com./story/sp...al/4146724001/

Count me as quite surprised.

Seems like the Reds should be buyers, not sellers, I would think.

[Captain Hook]

Maybe we they are? No one is buying right now so isn’t far to say that at this point in the game any sort of deal would have to be a slight overpay?

[Griffey012]

Great odds for a rebuilding team.

[mth123]

This is like judging who is going to win a game based on the first hitter. There are lots of pieces still moving around.

[M2]

https://www.cincinnati.com./story/sp...al/4146724001/

Count me as quite surprised.

Seems like the Reds should be buyers, not sellers, I would think.

It definitely pours cold water on some of the doomposting we've had here. The Reds should and need to make acquisitions to shore up this team, but they've got more in place than the rest of the NL Central. They have been building toward a run and it's here for the doing if they follow through with a few moves to fill obvious needs.

[reds77]

It is strange that a team is looking to save a ton of payroll and still the division favorite. The state of baseball is not good.

[redsrule2500]

It is strange that a team is looking to save a ton of payroll and still the division favorite. The state of baseball is not good.

True. To be fair, though, the state of the world is not good lol

[REDREAD]

Great odds for a rebuilding team.

They are only favorites because apparently no one in the Central is putting forth any effort, the emphasis is on cost cutting in theentire NL central.
If the whole central does nothing else, the Reds might win the division, but they'd get blown away by whoever they match up against in the playoffs. Yea, as it stands now, 82 or 83 wins might win the division.

Hopefully the Reds do add some pitching and a SS so that they are a bit more legitimate, as opposed to winning the division by forfeit (more or less).

[M2]

They are only favorites because apparently no one in the Central is putting forth any effort, the emphasis is on cost cutting in theentire NL central.
If the whole central does nothing else, the Reds might win the division, but they'd get blown away by whoever they match up against in the playoffs. Yea, as it stands now, 82 or 83 wins might win the division.

Hopefully the Reds do add some pitching and a SS so that they are a bit more legitimate, as opposed to winning the division by forfeit (more or less).

Generally, the best team even in a weak sister division wins 90+ games. I think we all remember the 2010 Reds. There is no reason the 2021 Reds can't be as good as that team, especially if the rest of the division punts.

What these odds are reminding us is the Reds have a stronger base to build from at the moment than their immediate competitors. I'm hoping they take advantage of that and the acquisition delay is just them waiting on the market to deliver some affordable buys. The season isn't lost. The Reds have a definite path toward winning their division. If the fan goal is to have the Reds play winning baseball and take their shot in the postseason, that's on the table. I'm not telling you it's guaranteed, but a clear-eyed assessment of where the Reds are compared to their opposition ought to leave you feeling at least a little buoyed about the Reds' chances.

[PuffyPig]

They are only favorites because apparently no one in the Central is putting forth any effort, the emphasis is on cost cutting in theentire NL central.
If the whole central does nothing else, the Reds might win the division, but they'd get blown away by whoever they match up against in the playoffs. Yea, as it stands now, 82 or 83 wins might win the division.

Hopefully the Reds do add some pitching and a SS so that they are a bit more legitimate, as opposed to winning the division by forfeit (more or less).

Everybody who makes the playoffs has a chance.

The wouldn’t be the first near .500 team to win the World Series.

[Reds Loyalist]

The division is so mediocre that the Reds could go from favorites to third or fourth if just one of the trade rumors happen. It seems a bit too early to guess since each team is still gonna add and subtract from the roster. There could also be some rule changes that favor the makeup of certain teams, they always seem to be tinkering with that. The good thing about the Reds is that their lineup is full of guys that could have potential bounce back years.

[MikeS21]

If the Reds upgrade the SS position from last year, and comes up with a half way decent starting pitcher to replace Bauer, the Reds will be in good shape. And if they add a bullpen arm or two, it would significantly improve their odds to take the division.

[REDREAD]

Generally, the best team even in a weak sister division wins 90+ games. I think we all remember the 2010 Reds. There is no reason the 2021 Reds can't be as good as that team, especially if the rest of the division punts.

What these odds are reminding us is the Reds have a stronger base to build from at the moment than their immediate competitors. I'm hoping they take advantage of that and the acquisition delay is just them waiting on the market to deliver some affordable buys. The season isn't lost. The Reds have a definite path toward winning their division. If the fan goal is to have the Reds play winning baseball and take their shot in the postseason, that's on the table. I'm not telling you it's guaranteed, but a clear-eyed assessment of where the Reds are compared to their opposition ought to leave you feeling at least a little buoyed about the Reds' chances.

If the season started today with everyone's current roster, I could see a lot of parity in the NL Central (other than the Pirates).
I know there's an unbalanced schedule, but I just have a hard time seeing anyone in the division winning 90.
I could see the division winner having 85 wins, the second place team 84 wins, the third place team 82 wins or something like that.

I agree with what you say in general.. a weak division makes it easier to win 90 due to the unbalanced schedule, but
there's no clear strong team to do that (as of today).

And yea, I hope the front office delivers and builds on what they have.

[M2]

If the season started today with everyone's current roster, I could see a lot of parity in the NL Central (other than the Pirates).
I know there's an unbalanced schedule, but I just have a hard time seeing anyone in the division winning 90.
I could see the division winner having 85 wins, the second place team 84 wins, the third place team 82 wins or something like that.

I agree with what you say in general.. a weak division makes it easier to win 90 due to the unbalanced schedule, but
there's no clear strong team to do that (as of today).

And yea, I hope the front office delivers and builds on what they have.

It's exceptionally hard to win a division with 85 or fewer wins. It's happened seven times in 48 seasons where they've played a full schedule, or 5.8% of the time.

[REDREAD]

It's exceptionally hard to win a division with 85 or fewer wins. It's happened seven times in 48 seasons where they've played a full schedule, or 5.8% of the time.

That's a good point, but the NL Central has a chance to be one of the most historically bad divisions of all time. (If no team does any adds, and more subtractions happen).
I mean, history is on your side, but all these NL teams have to play outside the division too, and in order to win 90, you have
a good team, even with an unbalanced schedule. But playing the Pirates 18 times will help someone in the quest for 90 wins for sure.