Extension Candidates

[kaldaniels]

Winker has what, 2 more seasons under team control?

I’d put market value at a 5 year extension (final 2 arb seasons included) at 65-70 million or so today.

That’s reasonable if Winker would accept. I don’t think he’s proved himself as a long term commodity yet by any stretch so it could be argued the Reds should offer less

As President of the Jesse Winker Fan Club I’d roll the dice.

[kaldaniels]

The players and their agents have a say in this too.

Winker is looking like an all star, he’ll want all star money. Mahle maybe less so, but the season is young, maybe he’ll want to be paid like a #2 level starter.

Reds ownership wouldn’t take on a solid relief pitcher salary last off-season. Long way to go before any of this happens.

Winker does look like an All-Star but what’s going against him is that this is his fifth season (albeit they haven’t been full seasons) in Cincinnati and he sits on a career fWAR of about 5. Regardless what you think of fWAR it’s not like he’s been some monster of production over the past several seasons.

[Mitri]

I move to extend Winker and Mahle. Offer Lorenzen an incentive based 2 year deal. Let Tucker walk. If you think Lodolo and Greene will be for real, I’d gauge trade interest in Castillo. He has high upside, but the guy seems volatile. Might be a good idea to use the value to get other pieces of need.

Yeah, one of the reasons I'm a "hold" on Miley is that I think they'll end up moving one of Sonny/Castillo either next offseason.

I could see next year's rotation as Sonny, Mahle, Antone, Miley, Lodolo, with Greene working in AAA.

[Kc61]

Winker does look like an All-Star but what’s going against him is that this is his fifth season (albeit they haven’t been full seasons) in Cincinnati and he sits on a career fWAR of about 5. Regardless what you think of fWAR it’s not like he’s been some monster of production over the past several seasons.

Recent performance tends to influence market value. Wink had a .932 OPS last year and is even better this year.

The major competing consideration is he’s considered one dimensional, but many LFers are limited defensively. Some guys do take a bit less to lock in the deal. FA is still a couple years away, injuries, slumps could happen.

My guess is Reds will show discipline in adding salary commitments in near future and deal might not be that easy to reach. Wink is going to want to be paid, especially for the FA years.

[757690]

No extensions to any pitchers, ever.

Winker is a strong maybe, but let’s at least get to the All-Star break before making any offers.

[M2]

Now is sort of the spot where you'd want to extend Castillo. We want to commit to you regardless of the shaky start. I assume Castillo's camp would pass on that and prefer more of a vault-cracking offer.

Lorenzen's a no for me. I'm pretty much against contract extensions for relievers. Most of them have short duration careers and once the injuries start to come they have a tendency to snowball. Would rather shop for free agents if I wanted to spend money in the pen.

Would be great if they could extend Winker and Mahle.

[Boston Red]

No extensions to any pitchers, ever.

That seems like a terrible policy. I'm okay with not handing out five year extensions, but how much would it cost to extend Mahle for 2 years?

[MoneyInTheBank]

Recent performance tends to influence market value. Wink had a .932 OPS last year and is even better this year.

The major competing consideration is he’s considered one dimensional, but LF in MLB is not exactly filled with great defenders. And some guys do take a bit less to lock in the deal. FA is still a couple years away, injuries, slumps could happen.

My guess is Reds will show discipline in adding salary commitments in near future and deal might not be that easy to reach. Wink is going to want to be paid, especially for the FA years.

Just to add to what you are saying here. The NL DH is almost certainly coming as soon as next season

[Moose Herd]

Winker does look like an All-Star but what’s going against him is that this is his fifth season (albeit they haven’t been full seasons) in Cincinnati and he sits on a career fWAR of about 5. Regardless what you think of fWAR it’s not like he’s been some monster of production over the past several seasons.

That's 2.57 fWAR per 162 games. He's currently on pace to be a 11.7 fWAR player this season.

[Old school 1983]

That's 2.57 fWAR per 162 games. He's currently on pace to be a 11.7 fWAR player this season.

Want a really hot take from me. Peak Winker will be a better hitter than peak Votto.

[klw]

Wrapping up Ty Steve now would give some good predictability to the payroll for a few years.

[Moose Herd]

Want a really hot take from me. Peak Winker will be a better hitter than peak Votto.

That seems like a lot to ask, but that would be great.

[Mitri]

Want a really hot take from me. Peak Winker will be a better hitter than peak Votto.

If he hits like he has so far this season for the next 9 years or so, sure.

[Wonderful Monds]

Winker does look like an All-Star but what’s going against him is that this is his fifth season (albeit they haven’t been full seasons) in Cincinnati and he sits on a career fWAR of about 5. Regardless what you think of fWAR it’s not like he’s been some monster of production over the past several seasons.

He put up 1.5 fWAR in a third of a season last year, can’t really fault him for the season being shortened. He played like an all star last year too. A breakout year in his age 26 season is a pretty good career track.

[klw]

Want a really hot take from me. Peak Winker will be a better hitter than peak Votto.

For this to happen, Winker has to become better against LHP. Winker in his career vs RHB is : .308/.400/.543/.943 while Votto is .310/.428/.535/.963. Versus LHP however Winker is .201/.319/.299/.617 while Votto has been .287/.394/.473/ .867. Hopefully Winker's overall success will stop him being platooned as much as he has and the more at bats he gets vs LHP will bring things up.