Extension Candidates

[kaldaniels]

He put up 1.5 fWAR in a third of a season last year, can’t really fault him for the season being shortened. He played like an all star last year too. A breakout year in his age 26 season is a pretty good career track.

I’m bullish but you can’t price “sure thing All-Star” into his contract at this point.

[Wonderful Monds]

The players and their agents have a say in this too.

Winker is looking like an all star, he’ll want all star money. Mahle maybe less so, but the season is young, maybe he’ll want to be paid like a #2 level starter.

Reds ownership wouldn’t take on a solid relief pitcher salary last off-season. Long way to go before any of this happens.

I wouldn’t be opposed to extending Mahle, but I’m not paying a guy who can only go 5 innings at a time #2 money.

[M2]

I wouldn’t be opposed to extending Mahle, but I’m not paying a guy who can only go 5 innings at a time #2 money.

Blake Snell won a Cy Young only going five innings. Like Paul Weller said, this is the modern world.

[Moose Herd]

I wouldn’t be opposed to extending Mahle, but I’m not paying a guy who can only go 5 innings at a time #2 money.

Blake Snell is an interesting comp, and Snell has averaged just over 5 innings per start in his career. I wouldn't extend Mahle during the season, but I would be interested to see what he does this year.

It's a different game then it was even five years ago

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Blake Snell won a Cy Young only going five innings. Like Paul Weller said, this is the modern world.

Jinx, I guess I need to buy you a coke.

[Old school 1983]

If he hits like he has so far this season for the next 9 years or so, sure.

I said peak. Of course Votto has the longevity argument.

[Moose Herd]

In Mahle's last 70 IP he's striking out almost 12 per 9/IP. That's going to run the pitch count up there.

[BillDoran]

If you really want to extract some value, the type of guy you extend is Senzel.

It seems somewhat counterintuitive, but you're not actually achieving much (in the sense of value for a resource-strapped team) by signing Winker to a market-rate contract after he's established himself.

Senzel, on the other hand, might be willing to sign on for 6 years/$30 million (no idea on numbers). His injury history makes this a nonstarter, but the idea here is trusting your scouting on your own guys and knowing whether his early struggles are temporary. You have more information on this guy than any other team in baseball. Use this to your advantage. Trust your front office and talent evaluators. If you believe in a guy, pony up. It might give the player a boost of confidence and help him grow some affinity for the organization. I also imagine all extensions are appreciated in the clubhouse as well.

You can certainly get bit in the butt being aggressive like this (happened to the Astros), but taking a few calculated risks on guys you have confidence in is how a team like Cincinnati gets off the treadmill of suck. Otherwise you're trying to beat the Dodgers and Yankees at their own game.

[Mitri]

I said peak. Of course Votto has the longevity argument.

I know, just making a point that Votto's peak was like a decade-straight of torrid hitting.

I could see Wink putting it all together and having one season better than Joey's best. Maybe.

[Wonderful Monds]

Blake Snell won a Cy Young only going five innings. Like Paul Weller said, this is the modern world.

Blake Snell is an interesting comp, and Snell has averaged just over 5 innings per start in his career. I wouldn't extend Mahle during the season, but I would be interested to see what he does this year.

It's a different game then it was even five years ago

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Jinx, I guess I need to buy you a coke.

I’d be cool with 5yr/50mil, maybe it’s splitting hairs but that’s less than #2 money IMO.


Like I would not give him a Zack Wheeler contract for example. Even if he pitches well, his inability to be effective past 2 times through the order or have the pitch efficiency to go deeper than that does limit his value and strains the bullpen on his days starting.

[Strikes Out Looking]

But don't forget that Snell was traded by the team that he won the Cy Young award for - of course, said team trades lots of its pitchers in order to sell high - but my point is that if we are using Snell as a comp, the jury is still out if his Cy Young award season was his high point or if he'll pitch at that level for a number of years.

FWIW, I think Mahle has a high upside, but as we are seeing a starter that goes strong for 6 innings is more valuable than a starter than averages just 5 innings.

I might buy out Tejay Antone for the rest of his pre-arb and arb years. He's older, and those are his prime years.

[Mitri]

Mahle is a baby-steps kind of workhorse. Each year, as he finds his footing more and more, he adds a new wrinkle of complexity to his game. He has slowly but surely begun to bring down the BB%, improve the K%, give up less home runs. I feel fairly confident that next step will be pitch efficiency. I'm not saying he'll ever be a CG or even a 7-inning guy, but I could see him averaging 6 innings/start in the years to come.

[Old school 1983]

I know, just making a point that Votto's peak was like a decade-straight of torrid hitting.

I could see Wink putting it all together and having one season better than Joey's best. Maybe.

Oh for sure. I’d have to be doing some serious day drinking to make that kind of prediction over a decade.

[757690]

That seems like a terrible policy. I'm okay with not handing out five year extensions, but how much would it cost to extend Mahle for 2 years?

Go year by year with pitchers.

What do you mean by extend Mahle by 2 years? He’s not a free agent until 2024. So 2 years after that, which would be a 4 year extension, or sign him for the next two years?

Even if it’s just for the next two years, all you’re doing is maybe saving money, but if he gets injured or tanks, you’ve lost money. The Reds did an extension like that for Iglesias, and we know how that turned out.

Odds are bad for pitchers being healthy and good for multiple years. Go year by year with all of them.

[Boston Red]

Go year by year with pitchers.

If the Reds do that, they'll never get to keep any of their good, homegrown pitchers. Zero of them.

[757690]

If the Reds do that, they'll never get to keep any of their good, homegrown pitchers. Zero of them.

Not past their first 6 years. Which is fine by me.