I think UC gets in over a one loss Oklahoma and a one loss Oregon. They just need Oklahoma to go ahead and get that loss. Notre Dame finishing 11-1 would help very much.
I think UC gets in over a one loss Oklahoma and a one loss Oregon. They just need Oklahoma to go ahead and get that loss. Notre Dame finishing 11-1 would help very much.
You're right. I used ESPN (not that I think they are the most legit, I actually prefer 247) and he was top 100 there too, I just missed it. ThanksOriginally Posted by Sea Ray
I think UO is sitting in the driver’s seat so far as the 1-loss teams go. They’ve got (will have) the biggest win - at OSU.
Now they could lose again and render this moot. But as an OSU fan I can and would easily argue that I think OSU is better than UO, but that win by the Ducks in Columbus is a fair trump card to be played. I’m hoping it doesn’t come down to those two teams for the last spot. And yeah, I have the committee taking a one-loss Oregon over undefeated UC. I’m not sure what the committee would do with Oregon vs OSU and I’d rather not find out.
I was thinking about my predicted top 4 earlier and had Oklahoma in until I looked at their remaining schedule. If they keep playing with fire there is no way they win all of their last 3 games - at Baylor, vs. Iowa State, and at Oklahoma State. Outside of their shellacking of Western Carolina OU has win margins of 5, 7, 3, 6, 7, 21, and 12. Only one of those games was against a ranked opponent - a 55-48 win over Texas.
In my opinion anyone who questions/criticizes Cincinnati best do the same for Oklahoma. Based on their first 8 games there is nothing special about them. There are a handful of teams with losses who i'm more impressed with than Oklahoma. The only thing that gets OU into the CFP is going undefeated, of course unless they lose one, still win the B12 title, and a bunch of the other teams around #3-#10 lose.
I don't see how Oregon can overcome losing to Stanford. Stanford is atrocious. Frankly, the Pac-12 isn't that much better than the AAC, and that's not a compliment to the AAC. And UC's win at Notre Dame won't be that much less than Oregon's win at Ohio State if the Irish are 11-1. The Irish probably end up about #6 or #7.
Sagarin, by the way, places Oregon #16. I fully endorse that position. Actually, I really like the Sagarin's overall rankings at the top, with Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, Oklahoma and Michigan at the top ahead of UC. I think that's exactly where we are. All of those teams control their destiny vis a vis UC. Ohio State and Michigan can't both win out, obviously, so one of the others needs to lose (or the OSU/Michigan winner needs to lose a different game).
Here's the Colley Matrix which bears out the issues with the Pac-12. They are 9-16 against non-conference FBS opponents. Colley actually rates the Pac-12 behind the MWC, the American and the Sun Belt. The 0-4 against BYU (who is 2-2 against everyone else) is really burning the Pac-12 overall. https://www.colleyrankings.com/curconf.html
Last edited by Boston Red; 10-27-2021 at 12:00 PM.
It is an interesting theory, but I do not find it completely logical because programs from around the country have been heavily recruiting Florida, Texas and California for decades.....not the last 5-10 years. Personally, I think it is much more simple than that.....when those programs have elite recruiters running their programs, they will keep most of their elite talent. If Bobby Bowden was 60 year old today, he is still getting much of his choice of player in Florida from the panhandle to Key West.....if Spurrier or Meyer are still running the show in Gainesville, they are getting Top 5 classes filled with Florida guys every year. Miami is probably a little more complicated than the other two in Florida. Same thing at USC if Pete Carroll is recruiting....or Mack Brown in Texas. It was not a coincidence that Meyer went to Ohio State and dominated recruiting or Mack Brown shows up again in Chapel Hill and their recruiting takes a jolt.
“The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane.”― Marcus Aurelius
Revering4Blue (10-27-2021),Rojo Rijo (10-27-2021)
In no means am I selling UC short, I think they have a quality team, on both sides of the ball.
The problem the non power 5 has, and UC in this case, is the schedule just doesn't equate over the course of a season. While 247's talent composite is far from a perfect tool, it gives you some valuable insight. UC would be the 11th most talented team in the PAC12. And while I think UC would crush Illinois, they are equally talented teams. Ultimately, the power 5 schools game in game out play teams as talented (on paper) as UC. And while they should win games against Illinois and Purdue and MSU and Northwestern, on an off day, those teams have the talent to bite them in the rear.
I think a one loss Oregon gets in over UC, and I don't think it should be much of a debate. I do think UC gets in over a one loss Oklahoma because well, you know what Oklahoma is. I don't think the committee wants to see OU in the playoff again with a defense that makes a middle school look good.
I think you're underestimating just how awful the Pac-12 is this year. UC would frankly have a pretty decent case against an undefeated Oregon.
I think you’re overestimating how good that ND win is going to look at the end of the year. This is the worst ND team in a decade.
What would you say.....ya do here?
But ND is probably going to end up 11-1 and will still look okay on paper when the playoff teams are selected. Then they'll get beat 51-3 by Iowa State (or some such) in the Fiesta Bowl or whatever.
Seriously, the Pac-12 is just garbage. UC is going to start from ahead of Oregon in the rankings. What game is Oregon going to win that is going to propel them ahead of UC? Hell, UC would beat SMU twice to go undefeated, right? SMU is better than anyone on Oregon's schedule not named Ohio State. And, once again, I'm not complementing SMU.
Sea Ray (10-27-2021)
I agree with you about Oregon, I’m just saying that ND win isn’t great. It’s a helmet win.
As an aside: I think ND is going to lose to UNC this weekend.
What would you say.....ya do here?
We have hot 1000 posts. Carry on in a new thread.
Reds Fan Since 1971
Agree. Virginia and Stanford aren’t layups for them either.
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