MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

[WrongVerb]

Garrett too. (Not to mention Trammell in Seattle.)

Plus the aforementioned Lorenzen and Winker.

Career WAR could double this season, if everyone's healthy and contributing.

Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs maybe, also.

[krm1580]

Again, all the prospects from 23 down to 100 have the same grade.

They're essentially tied.

Too, we'll see about where they rank after this season. Should Greene and Lodolo pitch well and remain healthy, they'll both almost assuredly move into the top 25. Hendrick is a likely helium guy as well. Callihan, Johnson, Hinds, Garcia-- all could see serious bumps.

You career WAR stat is interesting, but extremely misleading. You've limited it to the last 10 years. Why? The Reds have drafted primarily HS picks in those seasons. As a result, guys like Tyler Stephenson-- who, by all accounts has been a successful pick so far-- would be considered a failure because he was drafted five years ago. Robert Stephenson, Jesse Winker, Michael Lorenzen, Tyler Mahle-- they were all HS picks who've just really begin accumulating WAR, and they're the "veterans" in your analysis.

The draft requires a long lens and decades of patience. If, for example, you push your analysis out to 2006 (or 15 drafts in toto), the Reds suddenly look a lot better. Your WAR list adds Tucker Barnhart (still just 30), Billy Hamilton, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Leake, Yonder Alonso, Zack Cozart, Jay Bruce, John Axford, Justin Turner, and Todd Frazier. That's a whole list of All-Star and Gold Glove guys who've put up some pretty tasty career WAR. That's just the top 10 and doesn't include quite a few who've had time to accumulate WAR.

A couple of points

1.) The Reds organization model in its current iteration is very straight forward. They don't sign big money free agents and with rare exceptions like Joey Votto, they don't sign their own guys to long term extensions beyond their arbitration years. That being the case, in order for them to compete they need to acquire and develop players that are productive at the MLB level for a window of about 6 years. I don't think their is anything controversial about those statements.

2.) With the Rule 5 draft, you have 5 years to develop a guy. At that point you either expose him to the world or you have to put him on your roster whether he is a productive player or not.

Using those 2 points as guide posts, Reds players essentially have an 9-11 year shelf life. 3 to 5 years development, 6 years playing then off to free agency or traded before free agency. Again, nothing really controversial about that statement.

Assuming worst case scenario (5 year development path, 11 year life cycle) Any "homegrown" Reds would have had to come from 2010 draft or later. You can talk about how good the 2006 draft was, but the fact is those guys would not be with the Reds at this point in their careers and would have ZERO impact on the 2021 Reds other than compensation pick or prospects that came over in trades, which in theory should bolster your farm system.

So, No 10 years is not arbitrary, its incredibly realistic. If you want to stretch to 11 so you can count Grandal, so be it. Bottom line is for a team that absolutely has to consistently generate high level talent through the farm system, they have not done a good job and there is no way to argue they have. Pick any measure you want and I will almost guarantee they are bottom 5 in all of baseball in the last 11 years.

[Bourgeois Zee]

A couple of points

1.) The Reds organization model in its current iteration is very straight forward. They don't sign big money free agents and with rare exceptions like Joey Votto, they don't sign their own guys to long term extensions beyond their arbitration years. That being the case, in order for them to compete they need to acquire and develop players that are productive at the MLB level for a window of about 6 years. I don't think their is anything controversial about those statements.

2.) With the Rule 5 draft, you have 5 years to develop a guy. At that point you either expose him to the world or you have to put him on your roster whether he is a productive player or not.

Using those 2 points as guide posts, Reds players essentially have an 9-11 year shelf life. 3 to 5 years development, 6 years playing then off to free agency or traded before free agency. Again, nothing really controversial about that statement.

Assuming worst case scenario (5 year development path, 11 year life cycle) Any "homegrown" Reds would have had to come from 2010 draft or later. You can talk about how good the 2006 draft was, but the fact is those guys would not be with the Reds at this point in their careers and would have ZERO impact on the 2021 Reds other than compensation pick or prospects that came over in trades, which in theory should bolster your farm system.

So, No 10 years is not arbitrary, its incredibly realistic. If you want to stretch to 11 so you can count Grandal, so be it. Bottom line is for a team that absolutely has to consistently generate high level talent through the farm system, they have not done a good job and there is no way to argue they have. Pick any measure you want and I will almost guarantee they are bottom 5 in all of baseball in the last 11 years.

If you're talking about WAR and development, it absolutely is relevant.

[podgejeff_]

A couple of points

1.) The Reds organization model in its current iteration is very straight forward. They don't sign big money free agents and with rare exceptions like Joey Votto, they don't sign their own guys to long term extensions beyond their arbitration years. That being the case, in order for them to compete they need to acquire and develop players that are productive at the MLB level for a window of about 6 years. I don't think their is anything controversial about those statements.

2.) With the Rule 5 draft, you have 5 years to develop a guy. At that point you either expose him to the world or you have to put him on your roster whether he is a productive player or not.

Using those 2 points as guide posts, Reds players essentially have an 9-11 year shelf life. 3 to 5 years development, 6 years playing then off to free agency or traded before free agency. Again, nothing really controversial about that statement.

Assuming worst case scenario (5 year development path, 11 year life cycle) Any "homegrown" Reds would have had to come from 2010 draft or later. You can talk about how good the 2006 draft was, but the fact is those guys would not be with the Reds at this point in their careers and would have ZERO impact on the 2021 Reds other than compensation pick or prospects that came over in trades, which in theory should bolster your farm system.

So, No 10 years is not arbitrary, its incredibly realistic. If you want to stretch to 11 so you can count Grandal, so be it. Bottom line is for a team that absolutely has to consistently generate high level talent through the farm system, they have not done a good job and there is no way to argue they have. Pick any measure you want and I will almost guarantee they are bottom 5 in all of baseball in the last 11 years.

While that might be true, the entire Reds draft and development structure changed in the past two years. It takes time for that to pay off, especially when we cancel MiLB for a year.

For all we know we're the new Tampa Bay.

[WrongVerb]

Updated list

Top 100 (rank):
Greene(27)
Lodolo(32)
Barrero(33)
McLain(98)

[Bourgeois Zee]

Updated list

Top 100 (rank):
Greene(27)
Lodolo(32)
Barrero(33)
McLain(98)

Looks quite a bit better in terms of top 100 lists, quality of scouting reports, and professional WAR over the past decade just from the first few months of this season.

Funny how time and patience can change the narrative.

[RedTeamGo!]

Bummer to see Hendrick fall off the top 100

[WrongVerb]

Bummer to see Hendrick fall off the top 100

He had a terrible start to the season, but has come on since the start of July. Should be back in there when they update during the off season.

[Tom Servo]

He had a terrible start to the season, but has come on since the start of July. Should be back in there when they update during the off season.

He’s fallen back down in the last week unfortunately, a lot of strikeouts.

I’m still fairly bullish on him.

[M2]

I suspect Hendrick will need a full good season to climb back onto the top 100 lists. Though the guy in Daytona who's starting to fascinate me is Allan Cerda.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I suspect Hendrick will need a full good season to climb back onto the top 100 lists. Though the guy in Daytona who's starting to fascinate me is Allan Cerda.

Cerda, De La Cruz, and Hendrick all seem to have power for days and K issues. Hinds too, if his small sample and scouting report can be believed.

It's definitely seemed to be a Reds' thing for the last few years.

I'd prefer a haul of Callihans, Winkers, and Ibarras, but am interested in finding out if this works.

So far, those four have a wRC+ in Rookie and low A that's somewhere between 110 and 138.

[DocRed]

We are also ranked #12 overall farm system (at least based on top 100 point system). Top farm system in the NL Central

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospec...eason-rankings

[Bourgeois Zee]

We are also ranked #12 overall farm system (at least based on top 100 point system). Top farm system in the NL Central

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-prospec...eason-rankings

What's funny is that national pundits may well be undervaluing the system as a whole.

Recent graduates Stephenson, India, Antone, Gutierrez, and Santillan have done far, far better than expected. Especially the three pitchers.

If the Reds have found success developing pitching, guys like Noah Davis, Carson Spiers, Eduardo Salazar, Graham Ashcraft, Christian Roa, Bryce Bonnin, Riley O'Brien, and even guys like Dauri Moreta and Reiver Sanmartin.

[Kc61]

What's funny is that national pundits may well be undervaluing the system as a whole.

Recent graduates Stephenson, India, Antone, Gutierrez, and Santillan have done far, far better than expected. Especially the three pitchers.

If the Reds have found success developing pitching, guys like Noah Davis, Carson Spiers, Eduardo Salazar, Graham Ashcraft, Christian Roa, Bryce Bonnin, Riley O'Brien, and even guys like Dauri Moreta and Reiver Sanmartin.

Part of Reds’ system development has been their reluctance to trade prospects lately. There have been trades, but relatively few.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Part of Reds’ system development has been their reluctance to trade prospects lately. There have been trades, but relatively few.

Maybe.

The biggest part, though, is the development of those guys they keep.