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Thread: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

  1. #16
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    BA just released their top 15 LHP prospects and Lodolo wasn’t on the list. Wow.
    It's a true gamble by BA.

    It'll be interesting to see how this (and other slights) might affect their strata as prospect diviners. (They've slipped from the perch to a secondary status already.)


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  3. #17
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Garcia is one of the strangest prospects ever. There is absolutely no consensus on him. Seems like half of the baseball industry sees him as a MLB starting SS, the other half see him as just a guy. Usually the truth is somewhere in the middle. We shall see. 2021 is a make or break year for him Imho.
    I don't think that most prognosticators will admit it but I'd imagine a lot of these opinions are being colored by the fact that the body of work most widely available to them is Garcia faceplanting in the majors, which he clearly wasn't ready for and wouldn't have been exposed to in any normal circumstance. Had Garcia continued his natural progression and showed promise in AA or AAA I'd venture the assessments would be markedly different.

    It's fun to talk about rankings because there is nothing else going on, but I'm not sure that they've got any predictive value this offseason given that so few of these guys have been evaluated by those doing the rankings or scouts from rival organizations.

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  5. #18
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    BA just released their top 15 LHP prospects and Lodolo wasnít on the list. Wow.
    It'd be pretty damn impressive if he were. A 23 year old who has thrown only 7 innings in full season affiliated ball.

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  7. #19
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Reds top 30 mlb.com prospect list was released today...

    1 Nick Lodolo LHP
    2 Hunter Greene RHP
    3 Austin Hendrick OF
    4 Tyler Stephenson C
    5 Jonathan India 3B
    6 Jose Garcia SS
    7 Michael Siani OF
    8 Rece Hinds 3B
    9 Lyon Richardson RHP
    10 Tyler Callihan 2B/3B
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  8. #20
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Those are some glowing write-ups.

    Four "55" grade prospects and six "50" grades.

  9. #21
    Member membengal's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Those are some glowing write-ups.

    Four "55" grade prospects and six "50" grades.
    The entire system -every player is at best slightly above average to average or worse?

    That's just...not great.
    Well, that's what those words mean. He was here. If they don't keep him, he will have been lost/subtracted. I headed out the door today with two shoes on my feet. If I don't return with them, I have lost them. If I do return with them, I haven't added them. ---M2

  10. #22
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Those are some glowing write-ups.

    Four "55" grade prospects and six "50" grades.
    Yet, just four on the MLB top 100, all 58th or lower.

    The writeups are always worth a read, but MLB's prospect rankings continue to be an outlier in the industry (and not in a good way).

  11. #23
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    Yet, just four on the MLB top 100, all 58th or lower.
    Four prospects in the top 100 is above average. The average is three.

    Too, MLB prospect writers continue to say that all prospects with the same rank should be viewed as pretty much equal.

    Franco sits alone at the top. The next four prospects should all be viewed as clumped together. Then the next 17.

    Lodolo, Stephenson, Greene, and India, according to MLB, sit in the fourth echelon, from 23 down to 100.

  12. #24
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Four prospects in the top 100 is above average. The average is three.

    Too, MLB prospect writers continue to say that all prospects with the same rank should be viewed as pretty much equal.

    Franco sits alone at the top. The next four prospects should all be viewed as clumped together. Then the next 17.

    Lodolo, Stephenson, Greene, and India, according to MLB, sit in the fourth echelon, from 23 down to 100.
    I love your optimism and understand MLB rankings are not the be all end all, but 4 is a pretty low number considering where this team has been drafting over the past 5 years. Even if you include guys like Downs, Gray and Trammell, you are looking at (1) top 50 prospect - for a team that has not graduated anyone besides Senzel. The other piece is I get some guys are not available when you draft but half this list is international signings of which we have 0.

    Years ago when Jimmy Johnson was HC of the Miami Hurricanes their recruiting rankings were never any good, but they would have the best team in the country year in and year out, so maybe it means nothing. But I look at what the Reds have produced at the major league level over the past 10 years and I am not optimistic.

    Top 3 in terms of career WAR from last 10 drafts.
    Lorenzen 5.9
    Winker 2.5
    Cingrani 2.4

  13. #25
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by krm1580 View Post
    I love your optimism and understand MLB rankings are not the be all end all, but 4 is a pretty low number considering where this team has been drafting over the past 5 years. Even if you include guys like Downs, Gray and Trammell, you are looking at (1) top 50 prospect - for a team that has not graduated anyone besides Senzel.
    Again, all the prospects from 23 down to 100 have the same grade.

    They're essentially tied.

    Too, we'll see about where they rank after this season. Should Greene and Lodolo pitch well and remain healthy, they'll both almost assuredly move into the top 25. Hendrick is a likely helium guy as well. Callihan, Johnson, Hinds, Garcia-- all could see serious bumps.

    You career WAR stat is interesting, but extremely misleading. You've limited it to the last 10 years. Why? The Reds have drafted primarily HS picks in those seasons. As a result, guys like Tyler Stephenson-- who, by all accounts has been a successful pick so far-- would be considered a failure because he was drafted five years ago. Robert Stephenson, Jesse Winker, Michael Lorenzen, Tyler Mahle-- they were all HS picks who've just really begin accumulating WAR, and they're the "veterans" in your analysis.

    The draft requires a long lens and decades of patience. If, for example, you push your analysis out to 2006 (or 15 drafts in toto), the Reds suddenly look a lot better. Your WAR list adds Tucker Barnhart (still just 30), Billy Hamilton, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Leake, Yonder Alonso, Zack Cozart, Jay Bruce, John Axford, Justin Turner, and Todd Frazier. That's a whole list of All-Star and Gold Glove guys who've put up some pretty tasty career WAR. That's just the top 10 and doesn't include quite a few who've had time to accumulate WAR.

  14. #26
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Some combination of Senzel/Mahle/Antone/Stephenson/India/Garcia/Lodolo contributing this year is going to make our "recent" drafts look better. Antone is still a rookie and was drafted in 2014.

  15. #27
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by podgejeff_ View Post
    Some combination of Senzel/Mahle/Antone/Stephenson/India/Garcia/Lodolo contributing this year is going to make our "recent" drafts look better. Antone is still a rookie and was drafted in 2014.
    Garrett too. (Not to mention Trammell in Seattle.)

    Plus the aforementioned Lorenzen and Winker.

    Career WAR could double this season, if everyone's healthy and contributing.

  16. #28
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Reds system seems underrated to me. The rebuild has been slow in producing major leaguers. But a fair number of Reds’ good prospects are now ready or in the upper minors. I expect we’ll see more and more contributing over the next several years.

    This is critical for this team which cannot compete in the FA market over the long haul. They’ve been forced into that market by the slow rate of internal production. Ok to sign occasional FAs but as icing on the cake.

    I’m not too concerned that Reds have nobody considered a sure fire star. If they steadily add guys like India, Stephenson, Garcia, Lodolo, Santillan, Greene, etc. it will be a positive development.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-18-2021 at 10:38 AM.

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  18. #29
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I’m not concerned that Reds have nobody considered a sure fire star. If they steadily add guys like India, Stephenson, Garcia, Lodolo, Santillan, Greene, etc., eventually some will rise to the top.
    I'll take a roster full of these types. Lots of upside in the Senzel/ Greene/ Stephenson/ Garcia camp and high floors (assuming health).

    A lack of black holes is, IMO, a winning strategy. It's worked for the Cardinals for most of the past 80 years. (And the Yankees for longer than that.) The present-day Dodgers are built at least partially on that premise. So are the Rays.

  19. #30
    Member podgejeff_'s Avatar
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    Re: MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Reds system seems underrated to me. The rebuild has been slow in producing major leaguers. But a fair number of Reds’ good prospects are now ready or in the upper minors. I expect we’ll see more and more contributing over the next several years.

    This is critical for this team which cannot compete in the FA market over the long haul. They’ve been forced into that market by the slow rate of internal production. Ok to sign occasional FAs but as icing on the cake.

    I’m not too concerned that Reds have nobody considered a sure fire star. If they steadily add guys like India, Stephenson, Garcia, Lodolo, Santillan, Greene, etc. it will be a positive development.
    It's been a huge problem for us. Winker is just now stepping into his role full time, and he's been in the organization going on ten years. We're just starting to get contributions from guys we drafted in the early part of last decade.

    And as far as star power, I wouldn't be surprised to see Stephenson end up a top 5 catcher in the game. The bar isn't that high. And Hunter Greene has every tool to be the best pitcher in the game. It's way too early to tell, but Hendrick's scouting report screams that other teams are going to be very sorry they didn't draft him higher. His bat speed is apparently just insane.


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